CAPE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: These long range models are jumping all over the place. Very hard to take them even remotely serious. General idea is stormy with some serious cold around over the next 10+ days. Op models will show the range of possibilities. Hopefully one or two 'threats' materialize and work out in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm not trying to be difficult fellas...I definitely don't know jack but you honestly can't read this thread over several days or weeks and not get vertigo. I get it...its fun to extrapolate and guess that's part of the joy...but nobody here knows what is going to happen down the road...you have an envelope of scenarios and either end or everything in between is in play. I will shut up now...I have to get ready for my 34 and rain Bring in the plants and animals, lest they drown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Welp, here we basically are PSU's Jan 20th pattern change, and shockingly enough, its still just two weeks away. I guess the mid week storm is rain now too? Haha...posts like this after a week where areas of the forum got over 12” of snow. Posts like this where the pattern is going to go from “not a shutout” to the real deal in the next week. Posts like this honestly make me not want to post much anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Bring in the plants and animals, lest they drown. If they manage not to drown they will be encased in ice a few hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: If they manage not to drown they will be encased in ice a few hours later. Flash-frozen solid. Day After Tomorrow-style! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm not trying to be difficult fellas...I definitely don't know jack but you honestly can't read this thread over several days or weeks and not get vertigo. I get it...its fun to extrapolate and guess that's part of the joy...but nobody here knows what is going to happen down the road...you have an envelope of scenarios and either end or everything in between is in play. I will shut up now...I have to get ready for my 34 and rain No one ever knows... not sure why they even make predictions about winter in October. Last winter they came true because of ONE storm. Just lol. Forecasting is a joke now, they actually show you every model run on the news. Does anyone recall that 15 years ago? I honestly don't, not like today. There's more data ad everything is more complicated, but it doesn't seem to make predicting the weather any better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 What is going on in here???? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I'm glad I look at the overnight runs before coming in here. Things look generally the same as they did yesterday when everyone was riding high.... If the gfs op showed a blizzard at hour 336 the vibe would be completely different...which is ridiculous, imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: What is going on in here???? Ji and Ralph yelled fire 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: What is going on in here???? People posting, reacting/overreacting to posts, model runs, twitter bots. Same as usual. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Haha...posts like this after a week where areas of the forum got over 12” of snow. Posts like this where the pattern is going to go from “not a shutout” to the real deal in the next week. Posts like this honestly make me not want to post much anymore. Not to banter. But we got 2 inches from last weeks storm up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Ji and Ralph yelled fire And Mdecoy apparently thinks the pattern change is still 2 weeks away... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Mdecoy said: Not to banter. But we got 2 inches from last weeks storm up here. You have made 2 whiny posts ITT this morning, and both belong in banter or the panic room. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: You have made 2 whiny posts ITT this morning, and both belong in banter or the panic room. Or just scrawl them on a bathroom stall somewhere. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: And Mdecoy apparently thinks the pattern change is still 2 weeks away... I don't see anyone talking about The Thursday storm. Which is perplexing. Looked like a big storm and GFS went to rain. Does that have model support now? Serious question. I am far more interested in that, than this pattern change to be honest. Snow is Snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What is going on in here???? I thought we had a "banter" thread, but I guess if we aren't in "Storm Mode" anything goes anywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The one legit criticism I’ll give the upcoming pattern is we need the PV to weaken and get away from Baffin Island. That’s a bad spot for us. The great looks depended on the idea the tpv would weaken and allow high pressure across Canada. If the tpv becomes stubborn the pattern becomes good but not great. The mini melt down in here is silly though. The 6z runs had plenty of potential. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What is going on in here???? DT said put away the snow shovels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What is going on in here???? Quiet guys....daddy's home 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The one legit criticism I’ll give the upcoming pattern is we need the PV to weaken and get away from Baffin Island. That’s a bad spot for us. The great looks depended on the idea the tpv would weaken and allow high pressure across Canada. If the tpv becomes stubborn the pattern becomes good but not great. The mini melt down in here is silly though. The 6z runs had plenty of potential. How is Killington? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Fozz said: How is Killington? Send pics @psuhoffman. Counting on you for good storm obs up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What is going on in here???? GFS crap warm map and the suggestion of no epic blocking. Showmesnow is still in Vegas so no early morning and you and Bob went to sleep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Back to teaching my son to ski. Overnight wasn’t the greatest run ever but the freak out was lol. I’ll update in banter on the storm later. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 17 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: DT said put away the snow shovels. So in other words then DT is admitting to a hugh busted winter forecast. Since DT called for a very very snowy winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: GFS crap warm map and the suggestion of no epic blocking. Showmesnow is still in Vegas so no early morning and you and Bob went to sleep. Oops looks like I triggered some panic! I will do my best to not suggest such unthinkable things going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Ji and Ralph yelled fireBob started it btw 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 28 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: GFS crap warm map and the suggestion of no epic blocking. Showmesnow is still in Vegas so no early morning and you and Bob went to sleep. All indications are we should see an extended period of HL blocking through much of Feb. My primary nitpick is the higher heights off the maritimes where we ideally want lower heights. Also I never buy completely what the GFS is selling when it comes to its depiction of a -NAO in the LR. In this case it's more a matter of magnitude, not that it is wrong with the blocky look. We really don't need "historic" or "epic" blocking given the advertised general 500 mb pattern. Now if the Pac unexpectedly goes hostile, a big time, west-based block might be needed in order to mitigate it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 So much for powder here. See busts don’t just happen for us. When I picked a spot 2 days ago Killington was north of the best snow on most guidance but I anticipated a north trend. Not enough apparently as it looks like a sleet fest here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: All indications are we should see an extended period of HL blocking through much of Feb. My primary nitpick is the higher heights off the maritimes where we ideally want lower heights. Also I never buy completely what the GFS is selling when it comes to its depiction of a -NAO in the LR. In this case it's more a matter of magnitude, not that it is wrong with the blocky look. We really don't need "historic" or "epic" blocking given the advertised general 500 mb pattern. Now if the Pac unexpectedly goes hostile, a big time, west-based block might be needed in order to mitigate it. Whats your thoughts on the MJO, it seems responsible for this rain and messing up the pattern by going into warmer phases rather quickly from phase 7 and 8 . Its be a thorn in the side on winter so far. But notice how nicely it aligned with the DC snow I believe. Going to take some times to get into the COD , no sign it goes back to phase 8 or 1. Hopefully it decaysbut does not gain amp in 5 again later in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: Whats your thoughts on the MJO, it seems responsible for this rain and messing up the pattern by going into warmer phases rather quickly from phase 7 and 8 . Its be a thorn in the side on winter so far. But notice how nicely it aligned with the DC snow I believe. Going to take some times to get into the COD , no sign it goes back to phase 8 or 1. Hopefully it decaysbut does not gain amp in 5 again later in Feb. I don't think much about it tbh. Looks like it's emerging from the COD, and even though the forecast takes it through some of the bad phases, it looks low in magnitude and heads back towards the COD. Given that, my thought is it shouldn't be having that much impact, and if it is, this isn't much of a Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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