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January/February Medium/Long Range Disco


nj2va
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5 hours ago, Ji said:

Last weeks storm was not an enjoyable track. We all had settled on being happy with 1 -2 inches. Bob said his threshold was 1. We didn't even know we were getting 12 till 4 hours before the storm ended.

I thought last week’s was quite an event. Overperformers and surprise 8-12 feet snows are really fun to track.  If they were all like January ‘16, it wouldn’t be an interesting hobby. People always tell me I should move to somewhere that has snow on snow all winter. But that wouldn’t be fun. I love the MidAtlantic because it’s an adventure every winter. And we do Coastals pretty well when we have the right ingredients. 

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

So did the GEPS FWIW and while its the GEPS it's still an ens worth noting and not a bouncy op. 

A bit too much hyperbole lately with the talk of epic and historic blocking. Not a slam dunk IMO. Its mostly been the GFS/GEFS advertising the strong west based -NAO idea, and it seems to have more of a tendency to go a little nuts with NA blocking in the LR without necessarily verifying.  EPS has been pretty consistent in depicting generally higher heights in the NA, but not exactly a blockbuster negative NAO look. I don't like seeing the area of highest h5 height anomalies focused in the WA near the Maritimes- that seemed to be a transient feature previously but it keeps showing up run after run across guidance. I know that can 'work' for us down here in some set ups, and if the TPV hammer really is going to drop, then that would be one case. Your "WAR call" might end up being a decent one.

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

A bit too much hyperbole lately with the talk of epic and historic blocking. Not a slam dunk IMO. Its mostly been the GFS/GEFS advertising the strong west based -NAO idea, and it seems to have more of a tendency to go a little nuts with NA blocking in the LR without necessarily verifying.  EPS has been pretty consistent in depicting generally higher heights in the NA, but not exactly a blockbuster negative NAO look. I don't like seeing the area of highest h5 height anomalies focused in the WA near the Maritimes- that seemed to be a transient feature previously but it keeps showing up run after run across guidance. I know that can 'work' for us down here in some set ups, and if the TPV hammer really is going to drop, then that would be one case. Your "WAR call" might end up being a decent one.

But what are/were the weeklies seeing or missing that were giving those sustained epic looks? I know its not final but I want to learn from this because clearly we arent heading towards those 'epic' blocks up top more of a dampened out look at best.....which isnt necessarily a 100% fail either just so people know. Is this still completely MJO driven? Is this a Nina lag with the NS just ripping and generally progressive still?

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

But what are/were the weeklies seeing or missing that were giving those sustained epic looks? I know its not final but I want to learn from this because clearly we arent heading towards those 'epic' blocks up top more of a dampened out look at best.....which isnt necessarily a 100% fail either just so people know.

How do you know that? Honest question 

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

But what are/were the weeklies seeing or missing that were giving those sustained epic looks? I know its not final but I want to learn from this because clearly we arent heading towards those 'epic' blocks up top more of a dampened out look at best.....which isnt necessarily a 100% fail either just so people know. Is this still completely MJO driven? Is this a Nina lag with the NS just ripping and generally progressive still?

Not sure the weeklies were missing anything. They initialize off of an EPS run as you know. We all know the caveats with LR forecasting, and the weeklies are essentially extrapolating starting from D15. Each run is discrete, and the way we interpret it in evaluating multiple runs going forward is the guidance is continually making adjustments.

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I dont. I am basing it off the ens starting to mute the signals as we get closer. Maybe 'clearly ' was a poor choice and I should have said 'seems/appears like' instead. 

You read this thread yesterday as late as 9pm right?

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I'm not trying to be difficult fellas...I definitely don't know jack but you honestly can't read this thread over several days or weeks and not get vertigo. I get it...its fun to extrapolate and guess that's part of the joy...but nobody here knows what is going to happen down the road...you have an envelope of scenarios and either end or everything in between is in play. I will shut up now...I have to get ready for my 34 and rain

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm not trying to be difficult fellas...I definitely don't know jack but you honestly can't read this thread over several days or weeks and not get vertigo. I get it...its fun to extrapolate and guess that's part of the joy...but nobody here knows what is going to happen down the road...you have an envelope of scenarios and either end or everything in between is in play. I will shut up now...I have to get ready for my 34 and rain

This was advertised to be an epic MA snowstorm on guidance not too terribly long ago. 

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