frd Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's possible. The only thorn I see is Ji's favorite 50/50 high. lol. If a big storm ran the coast the threat of it coming inland is bigger than scraping the coast or OTS. EPS strongly agrees with the frigid outbreak d9-11 and ends up looking pretty similar to the GEFS @ d15. From how it looks right now, our chances for wintry precip go way up starting next weekend and beyond. Not a dry look on either the GEFS or EPS at the beginning of Feb. Another good run even though the follow up wave looks pretty crappy. This may be old news, but DT highlights Feb 4 th and 5 th as a significant winter storm threat. I would love to see snow at 5 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Focus on lower portion, looking good for downwelling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: when this storm fails...we got the one right behind it to help us fail again haha 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: And now the euro spits a full continental block. lol. Wild times are brewing... Is that considered a neg NAO? Or a very strong war? A blend of the two? That's the kind of cold/low heights where it's so cold its clea outside but pixie dust snow flakes are falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: That’s too much of a good thing Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I like mischief https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/1086371966771179521?s=21 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Quite the hit on the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, LP08 said: Quite the hit on the 18z gfs For the northern and central part... south and South and east of DCA looks rainy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 No margin for error though on it. Certainly a step towards a Euro like solution of the boundary not getting through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks like 18z GFS setting up to dump the motherload like the EURO at 162 hours. Huge PNA ridge and the PV is about to be brought Southward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, LP08 said: Quite the hit on the 18z gfs 18z gfs trended toward the middle ground between 12z FV3 and 12z Canadian, which was way amped and west. 12z gfs honestly looked better in my opinion than 18z. I’m hoping that the front will get a little quicker of a kick east so that a lot of us can have fun with that system on Wed/Thur. Has the potential to have some juice with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 18z gfs drops another subtle hint that legit blocking is on the way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherLovingDoc Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Looks like 18z GFS setting up to dump the motherload like the EURO at 162 hours. Huge PNA ridge and the PV is about to be brought Southward I love Winter Weather! Understanding models and even many posts is hard for me. 162 hours is 6.5 days however, and I'm suppose to be driving from DC proper to NYC Manhattan and staying the weekend. I don't travel in bad weather! I will watch as I always do, but any early advice here, american wx peeps? You think I should cancel? Thank you in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS has a 1060 high at 240. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gfs drops another subtle hint that legit blocking is on the way Is that a 50/50 low too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, WeatherLovingDoc said: I love Winter Weather! Understanding models and even many posts is hard for me. 162 hours is 6.5 days however, and I'm suppose to be driving from DC proper to NYC Manhattan and staying the weekend. I don't travel in bad weather! I will watch as I always do, but any early advice here, american wx peeps? You think I should cancel? Thank you in advance. Hello! Unfortunately, it is probably too early to be able to say one way or the other. Best advice is just to keep checking back here as we get closer to Thursday--because right now, as is often the case when medium/long range forecasting for the I-95 corridor, multiple options are on the table! (Does appear that something might hit us, but too early to tell if it's gonna be rain or snow!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Lol. Suppression for Panama City. Congrats Orlando? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: Lol. Suppression for Panama City. Congrats Orlando? 486 thickness approaching. Cold very cold. Not common in these parts. 468 I think is the lowest I have seen in Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Right now if I were to guess it looks like there will be some Miller B potential for a week or so after the 24-25th “Anafront” event. Obviously Miller Bs can be mostly misses around DC/Philly, but there was some signal for on the EPS for a low to develop on one of those arctic fronts. If you can get an arctic wave to dive deep enough S you could get a score. However, towards end of month & early Feb we will likely see some legiit shots at a blockbuster event, especially if the progged block ends up developing. Exciting times ahead. It has been a pretty crap winte here in Philly. Even last night’s event had the heavier stuff stay just Se of the city. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Right now if I were to guess it looks like there will be some Miller B potential for a week or so after the 24-25th “Anafront” event. Obviously Miller Bs can be mostly misses around DC/Philly, but there was some signal for on the EPS for a low to develop on one of those arctic fronts. If you can get an arctic wave to dive deep enough S you could get a score. However, towards end of month & early Feb we will likely see some legiit shots at a blockbuster event, especially if the progged block ends up developing. Exciting times ahead. It has been a pretty crap winte here in Philly. Even last night’s event had the heavier stuff stay just Se of the city. I’m with you man, pretty snow starved around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Lol. Suppression for Panama City. Congrats Orlando? We’d likely see our shot at a majo event as the PV starts to lift NE obviously & block starts to calm...Heather A event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 We are seeing some pretty extreme, potentially historic solutions being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 hours ago, PivotPoint said: Things look pretty good today. Heopefully holds the line over next 3-5 days then I think we start digging into some real chances. Interesting note about the next week (Thursday-Friday deal) 12z gfs is probably wrong about multiple waves riding the boundary — will most likely consolidate and form one wave for better or worse. But if we were to receive to independent bouts of snow from the same front and it again lasted more than 30hrs, it would be (by my estimation) the first time in my 34 years I’ve seen two 30+ hour continuous events for the same winter in my life time in NoVA. Please correct me if I’m wrong Looking forward to good times next 3-4 weeks You're gonna get it. The Mid Atlantic aint seen nuthin yet so far this snow season. The Best is yet to come. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: And now the euro spits a full continental block. lol. Wild times are brewing... I LOVE that so much! I'd love to take a long leisurely jebwalk at night, wearing a SOAKED t-shirt! I worship Vodka Cold! This is what I yearn for the Mid Atlantic to have: About three feet of pow then extreme Siberian air with a nice refreshing northerly breeze, blowing the snow all over the place in a total milkshake froth. Thats what I want for you up in the Mid Atlantic. And, the infamous Leesburg/Rockville/HoCo/MoCo Deathband dumps 50 inches. If it verified, I'd be sublimely happy! I not only want you to get all the snow you can handle, I want you to have more snow than you can handle! I'd like to see happy snow weenies flying high all over the place! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Jebman said: I LOVE that so much! I'd love to take a long leisurely jebwalk at night, wearing a SOAKED t-shirt! I worship Vodka Cold! This is what I yearn for the Mid Atlantic to have: About three feet of pow then extreme Siberian air with a nice refreshing northerly breeze, blowing the snow all over the place in a total milkshake froth. Thats what I want for you up in the Mid Atlantic. If it verified, I'd be sublimely happy! I not only want you to get all the snow you can handle, I want you to have more snow than you can handle! I'd like to see happy snow weenies flying high all over the place! That is a Jebman special. 492dM is brutal. So cold your nipples fall off and get eaten by a dead squirrel...that’s cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 29 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 486 thickness approaching. Cold very cold. Not common in these parts. 468 I think is the lowest I have seen in Canada. Good rule of thumb with extreme lr op solutions is to shave about 1/3 off and that will be closer to reality. So congrats Atlanta and Hattiesburg. Sorry Orlando weenies... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Good rule of thumb with extreme lr op solutions is to shave about 1/3 off and that will be closer to reality. So congrats Atlanta and Hattiesburg. Sorry Orlando weenies... I’d give up the snow for Orlando to get it. Snow in Disney...that would be something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, Jebman said: I LOVE that so much! I'd love to take a long leisurely jebwalk at night, wearing a SOAKED t-shirt! I worship Vodka Cold! This is what I yearn for the Mid Atlantic to have: About three feet of pow then extreme Siberian air with a nice refreshing northerly breeze, blowing the snow all over the place in a total milkshake froth. Thats what I want for you up in the Mid Atlantic. And, the infamous Leesburg/Rockville/HoCo/MoCo Deathband dumps 50 inches. If it verified, I'd be sublimely happy! I not only want you to get all the snow you can handle, I want you to have more snow than you can handle! I'd like to see happy snow weenies flying high all over the place! Jeb, I don't know what you do for a living but if you bring 1/10th of the joy and enthusiasm you have for winter weather (and bring to this board) to it I have no doubt that you're the best in the world at it Cheers, brother! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I’d give up the snow for Orlando to get it. Snow in Disney...that would be something. Disney trip, anyone? Do they have casinos in Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, B-Paq said: Jeb, I don't know what you do for a living but if you bring 1/10th of the joy and enthusiasm you have for winter weather (and bring to this board) to it I have no doubt that you're the best in the world at it Cheers, brother! I lived in N VA for over 50 years. I love that place on so many levels it isnt even funny. I want you guys to be happy so bad. I want you all to have a truly EPIC snow winter. That would make me happy even down here, lol. I dont need snow in Texas, but I say the Mid Atlantic DOES NEED A LOT OF SNOW, and I say you shall have it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Jebman said: Disney trip, anyone? Do they have casinos is Florida? Yes, they have casinos in Florida. The best one closest to Orlando is https://www.seminolehardrocktampa.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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