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January/February Medium/Long Range Disco


nj2va
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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

And now the euro spits a full continental block. lol. Wild times are brewing...

Funny, we are not looking at week 4 anymore on the weeklies ! Getting closer .

Whatever it is getting closer,  it's getting closer, so get ready. 

Seriously though, very impressive  !   EPS should be an eye openner.  

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I'm going to be honest, even though snow is no guarantee, I'm very happy that at least it appears the next couple weeks will be cold for the most part. A little bummed we're going to go from teens on Monday to rain on Wednesday of next week, but the prospect of the snow event right after that is nice! Just glad we're out of that December pattern!

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Things look pretty good today. Heopefully holds the line over next 3-5 days then I think we start digging into some real chances.

Interesting note about the next week (Thursday-Friday deal) 12z gfs is probably wrong about multiple waves riding the boundary — will most likely consolidate and form one wave for better or worse. But if we were to receive to independent bouts of snow from the same front and it again lasted more than 30hrs, it would be (by my estimation) the first time in my 34 years I’ve seen two 30+ hour continuous events for the same winter in my life time in NoVA.

Please correct me if I’m wrong

Looking forward to good times next 3-4 weeks 

 

 

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Follow up wave doesn't look good at all on the eps (could be group think or could be a sign it's not going to work). Next weekend is wild. Quite a bit of agreement that sub zero temps get close or overhead. A number of ens members do snow on us but they do it all kinds of different ways. The takeway is very cold air is probably coming and there's a chance it combines with precip. That's about all I can say. Spread is crazy. 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's some sort of multi-decadal  cycle with the NAO. I don't have a theory or any knowledge as to why but if you look at the historical NAO data, phases happen in bunches.  10 years ago and goose could fart flying over the Davis Straight and a block would form. Then the big blue ball took over. It's possible that this year marks the beginning of another cycle of -NAO winters. Not every winter but more often than not. We'll see how it goes over the next 3-5 years. 

Huh...that's interesting! (And let me guess...the snowy 60s' were a decade where the -NAO was on? Lol And if that's true, I wonder if we had the opposite in the early-mid 70s? Ack) And let's get these geese some beans, shall we? :lol:

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Follow up wave doesn't look good at all on the eps (could be group think or could be a sign it's not going to work). Next weekend is wild. Quite a bit of agreement that sub zero temps get close or overhead. A number of ens members do snow on us but they do it all kinds of different ways. The takeway is very cold air is probably coming and there's a chance it combines with precip. That's about all I can say. Spread is crazy. 

Can you be a little less specific? LOL! Cold seems a lock!

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Follow up wave doesn't look good at all on the eps (could be group think or could be a sign it's not going to work). Next weekend is wild. Quite a bit of agreement that sub zero temps get close or overhead. A number of ens members do snow on us but they do it all kinds of different ways. The takeway is very cold air is probably coming and there's a chance it combines with precip. That's about all I can say. Spread is crazy. 

@Bob Chill o you recall the evolution last year, early Jan 2018, and what caused that bomb cyclone to form and produce blizzard warnings at Dewey Beach and you and I missed it. Any similarities or options such as that on the table with the leading edge of below zero F airmass coming this way. And the blocking in place. 

 

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25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Follow up wave doesn't look good at all on the eps (could be group think or could be a sign it's not going to work). Next weekend is wild. Quite a bit of agreement that sub zero temps get close or overhead. A number of ens members do snow on us but they do it all kinds of different ways. The takeway is very cold air is probably coming and there's a chance it combines with precip. That's about all I can say. Spread is crazy. 

There are several members including the control that have a south to north storm that runs the whole coast. 

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12 minutes ago, frd said:

@Bob Chill o you recall the evolution last year, early Jan 2018, and what caused that bomb cyclone to form and produce blizzard warnings at Dewey Beach and you and I missed it. Any similarities or options such as that on the table with the leading edge of below zero F airmass coming this way. And the blocking in place. 

 

It's possible. The only thorn I see is Ji's favorite 50/50 high. lol. If a big storm ran the coast the threat of it coming inland is bigger than scraping the coast or OTS. 

EPS strongly agrees with the frigid outbreak d9-11 and ends up looking pretty similar to the GEFS @ d15. From how it looks right now, our chances for wintry precip go way up starting next weekend and beyond. Not a dry look on either the GEFS or EPS at the beginning of Feb. Another good run even though the follow up wave looks pretty crappy. 

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