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January/February Medium/Long Range Disco


nj2va
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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's some sort of multi-decadal  cycle with the NAO. I don't have a theory or any knowledge as to why but if you look at the historical NAO data, phases happen in bunches.  10 years ago and goose could fart flying over the Davis Straight and a block would form. Then the big blue ball took over. It's possible that this year marks the beginning of another cycle of -NAO winters. Not every winter but more often than not. We'll see how it goes over the next 3-5 years. 

It is strange,  we are near a solar minimum, yet nowhere near the bottm yet.

09-10 had a very low solar min near that winter. I am not saying there is a connection, but interesting if all the modeled blocking really happens.  

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Just now, frd said:

It is strange,  we are near a solar minimum, yet nowhere near the bottm yet.

09-10 had a very low solar min near that winter. I am not saying there is a connection, but interesting if all the modeled blocking really happens.  

I would like to get another run of blocking like the 1960s in my lifetime. I think my area averaged close to 60” a year that decade. 

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Phase changes with the NAO like what's progged happen pretty violently and are rarely modeled or forecast well. We're going to see all kinds of different versions until the block is established (assuming it does... looks good now). Once the blocking is in place then mid/long range will be more trustworthy. We're really close to victory with the AO/NAO. Ens haven't slipped back at all and ops are spitting out big blocking looks left and right but it's right on the cusp of too far out in time to discuss details. Another 4-5 days and it should be game on in the tracking dept. 

Looks like what I am seeing remind me of the "surprise" short range systems that can over-perform and become bigger with out too many changes... I am mentioning ONLY because I am thinking of a famous January 25 .. not saying we have that look, but some things remind me of it.

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1 minute ago, frd said:

It is strange,  we are near a solar minimum, yet nowhere near the bottm yet.

09-10 had a very low solar min near that winter. I am not saying there is a connection, but interesting if all the modeled blocking really happens.  

I'm not much of a solar tracker but it might be worth looking at the -NAO periods in the 60s, 70s, and 80s. The 60s period is pretty sick and one of the main reasons it was snowy as heck in the east. The 70s had some blocks that actually worked against our region. But overall it was deep winter at times in the east. The 80s and 90s were predominantly +NAO years but the short periods of blocking produced big. 

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

It is strange,  we are near a solar minimum, yet nowhere near the bottm yet.

09-10 had a very low solar min near that winter. I am not saying there is a connection, but interesting if all the modeled blocking really happens.  

Interestingly, we're at solar lows at 2009-10 levels right now. Epic blocking coming

The latest sunspot number progression plot

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I would like to get another run of blocking like the 1960s in my lifetime. I think my area averaged close to 60” a year that decade. 

You mentioned the 1960's a bit earlier, forget what specific year but wow at the -NAO moving up in time .  Its happening !!!!!!!!!

Some years that in the beginning of the season worth keeping are 1966, 1969 and the epic March 1958. A couple others I forgot,  getting old.   

 

 

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GEFS is showing a lot of sadistic gradient solutions next week. Fits what the ops are showing. Things don't look to get really good until next weekend and beyond though. I'm not going to get hung up on anything specific in the mid/long range. The next 10 days will not be modeled well in advance and I expect low verification scores. Basically if anything is even close to hitting us in the mid-long range you can't write it off (or hug it) until fairly close to the event. 

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21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's some sort of multi-decadal  cycle with the NAO. I don't have a theory or any knowledge as to why but if you look at the historical NAO data, phases happen in bunches.  10 years ago and goose could fart flying over the Davis Straight and a block would form. Then the big blue ball took over. It's possible that this year marks the beginning of another cycle of -NAO winters. Not every winter but more often than not. We'll see how it goes over the next 3-5 years. 

I do know that the swing has been more in flux lately, this Summer broke some records. I've always thought the 2020s would be more -NAO (since 2012 really, we are at the ZY/ZX part of it, I believe).

images.png

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not much of a solar tracker but it might be worth looking at the -NAO periods in the 60s, 70s, and 80s. The 60s period is pretty sick and one of the main reasons it was snowy as heck in the east. The 70s had some blocks that actually worked against our region. But overall it was deep winter at times in the east. The 80s and 90s were predominantly +NAO years but the short periods of blocking produced big. 

One thing that might stack the deck in our favor regarding blocking episodes going forward... in the past one way we failed during good blocking was a dry pattern... we might get some snow but nothing significant.  Recently that has not been the case as much...when we get blocking (rare) it seems to produce more often.  That might have to do with the fact that systems in general seem to be more juiced lately.  I mean look at this weekend, its a fairly progressive wave on a thermal boundary and its going to dump close to 20" of snow on a big area to our north.  Lately it seems like some cow farts and we get an inch of qpf.  

One issue the last 2 years was the only blocking we had was in March and so the bulk of the snow ended up inland/higher elevation/to our north.  But the storms were pretty big.  The last blocking during prime climo was 2016, and even though it was only about a 2 week period look what happened.   If we keep getting the kind of precipitation patterns we have lately it might stack the deck against blocking fails.  Add precip to a blocking pattern and its hard to lose.  

Would be sweet if we could get a prolonged period of blocking like the 1960s or the late 1800s.  If that is a cyclical thing we are getting close to due for another 10-20 year run of -NAO.  We can only dream right.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

holy crap the GEFS took another step towards extreme blocking after 6z went that way and upped the timeline again by a day or so.  It really starts to tank the NAO by like day 5 and never looks back.  

Man you have to like that it is showing up in the medium range. Makes it feel more real. Going back a few weeks the weeklies were showing this. Then it started showing up in the long range d10+. Now it’s almost a matter of when not If it happens

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2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

GEFS get ridging into GL by D4 and really goes to town by D8 thru the rest of the run.  Great look in the LR with lower heights in the 50/50 region and a PAC parade set to undercut

You ninja’d me on this.  What a look on the GEFS...take a look at 384.  Low heights in the 50/50 region and a potent wave over LA/MS.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

holy crap the GEFS took another step towards extreme blocking after 6z went that way and upped the timeline again by a day or so.  It really starts to tank the NAO by like day 5 and never looks back.  

GEFS looks fantastic overall. Ends with a great look for continue active/blocked flow. Storm track looks to be from the pac nw and underneath blocking as we get into the first week of Feb. Much rather see that than a towering ridge from SoCal to the Yukon. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS looks fantastic overall. Ends with a great look for continue active/blocked flow. Storm track looks to be from the pac nw and underneath blocking as we get into the first week of Feb. Much rather see that than a towering ridge from SoCal to the Yukon. 

 

yea ninja'd me on that end look...just wow.  Sign me up.  You were 100% right, as the blocking got medium range suddenly the guidance is jumping on it and some crazy stuff is showing up.  This should get fun.  It definitely won't be boring in here for the foreseeable future.  The best part is we have some snow banked already heading into this!

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1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I hope the PNA doesn't go negative.. just as the pattern gets right. I was afraid of this seeing full ridging over Alaska and no trough underneath the last few runs.. 

dude a full CONUS trough with that kind of blocking is a great look.  A HUGE full lat PNA/EPO ridge is great if you want to hit -20 but not necessarily what we want to get a lot of snow if we have blocking.  Now in a progressive pattern without any NAO blocking...a PNA ridge is a must.  This is all a game of moving parts and different ways to get the longwave pattern right for us.  There are multiple ways to do it but the one that gives us by far the most wiggle room and leeway is a west based NAO block.  There are a LOT of ways to work with that.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

dude a full CONUS trough with that kind of blocking is a great look.  A HUGE full lat PNA/EPO ridge is great if you want to hit -20 but not necessarily what we want to get a lot of snow if we have blocking.  Now in a progressive pattern without any NAO blocking...a PNA ridge is a must.  This is all a game of moving parts and different ways to get the longwave pattern right for us.  There are multiple ways to do it but the one that gives us by far the most wiggle room and leeway is a west based NAO block.  There are a LOT of ways to work with that.  

It didn't work last March. Aleutian region I would argue is more important than the NAO.

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Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

It didn't work last March. Aleutian region I would argue is more important than the NAO.

We had two accumulating snow events into DC last March.  One was a borderline warning level event on March 20th!  I am almost 100% certain that would have been a HECS level event had it been February and not March 20th.  Not sure what "didnt work" about the pattern last year except it came too late to reach full potential.  

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