Cobalt Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS swing and a miss for 24th event. That doesn't matter though. Still good to see same idea for that timeframe 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Serious question. Is there a science that explains on these kinds of storms how the snow always seems to reaches 20 miles south of dc then moves due east https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019011718&fh=162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: @psuhoffman why do you think this is ? the spread > Is the model used for this, is that why? Not accurate. Because the globals have a - AO Lol useless garbage. We will either have record positive or negative AO or anything in between. Obviously guidance is struggling right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It's no coincidence that our only 2 accum snow events this year happened when the AO was negative. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It's no coincidence that our only 2 accum snow events this year happened when the AO was negative.Maybe were worried about the wrong oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's no coincidence that our only 2 accum snow events this year happened when the AO was negative. Maybe were worried about the wrong oscillation Strongest correlation by a large margin is the AO. The NAO is what gives us the monsters. You won't find many big storms without a neg nao leading and/or pos pna. Feb 2014 was unusual but flukes happen. I pay more attention to the AO in general but ninos with a neg nao are pretty ripe for big storms. Especially in Feb... I'm expecting some big storms in Feb in the east unless the universally agreed upon blocking universally busts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Strongest correlation by a large margin is the AO. The NAO is what gives us the monsters. You won't find many big storms without a neg nao leading and/or pos pna. Feb 2014 was unusual but flukes happen. I pay more attention to the AO in general but ninos with a neg nao are pretty ripe for big storms. Especially in Feb... I'm expecting some big storms in Feb in the east unless the universally agreed upon blocking universally busts. I don’t want anyone to take this the wrong way so let me first say the weeklies look good. Cold straight through. All the reds and blues in the right spot. But...the anomalies are obviously less pronounced. I have to wonder if the euro guidance is being affected by the same variability now as the gfs. Last few runs with the extreme anomalies it was obvious that support has to be pretty close to full. Today’s run makes me wonder if there aren’t more divergence within the ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t want anyone to take this the wrong way so let me first say the weeklies look good. Cold straight through. All the reds and blues in the right spot. But...the anomalies are obviously less pronounced. I have to wonder if the euro guidance is being affected by the same variability now as the gfs. Last few runs with the extreme anomalies it was obvious that support has to be pretty close to full. Today’s run makes me wonder if there aren’t more divergence within the ensemble. Agree. One thing for sure, weeklies are really cold for a couple weeks after d10. Not an ideal trough axis and almost too much ridging in the west at times but i really dont care at all. Let's get the blocking going in real time and let the chips fall. If that piece is stable then Feb should be very wintery in these parts. Weeklies will look a little different every 4 days. If we can get a stable block and cold going we'll be too busy with ops and ens to care much about the weeklies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Agree. One thing for sure, weeklies are really cold for a couple weeks after d10. Not an ideal trough axis and almost too much ridging in the west at times but i really dont care at all. Let's get the blocking going in real time and let the chips fall. If that piece is stable then Feb should be very wintery in these parts. Weeklies will look a little different every 4 days. If we can get a stable block and cold going we'll be too busy with ops and ens to care much about the weeklies. Based on where we were 10 days before the MECS last weekend....was it the most surprising major snow event of your life? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Agree. One thing for sure, weeklies are really cold for a couple weeks after d10. Not an ideal trough axis and almost too much ridging in the west at times but i really dont care at all. Let's get the blocking going in real time and let the chips fall. If that piece is stable then Feb should be very wintery in these parts. Weeklies will look a little different every 4 days. If we can get a stable block and cold going we'll be too busy with ops and ens to care much about the weeklies. Based on where we were 10 days before the MECS last weekend....was it the most surprising major snow event of your life? Yep, never thought i would get nearly a foot of snow out of that. One of the best short term reverse busts i can remember. Exceeded Jan 2010 by a good margin. You'll like the 18z gefs for late next week. Big spread but potential for a colder and snowier outcome increased. Best of all... it's less than 10 days away. Need the eps to up the ante now. Eta: Jan 2000 is still the king of reverse busts. Models are prob too good nowadays for a redux like that one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 A clipper a day keeps the snow drought away. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Strongest correlation by a large margin is the AO. The NAO is what gives us the monsters. You won't find many big storms without a neg nao leading and/or pos pna. Feb 2014 was unusual but flukes happen. I pay more attention to the AO in general but ninos with a neg nao are pretty ripe for big storms. Especially in Feb... I'm expecting some big storms in Feb in the east unless the universally agreed upon blocking universally busts. I’ve been saying this for years Jan 7th 1996 PHL 31” negative NAO just to name a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 We can’t get a significant storm on a weekday, so this makes sense. January 26th is a weekend, so we will have precipitation. Weekend rain has been quite a theme this year. 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: GFS swing and a miss for 24th event. That doesn't matter though. Still good to see same idea for that timeframe 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18z gefs was close to a weenie run. Uptick on potential for late next week with the trailing wave idea but it remains fairly active through the end of the run. Mean h5 at the end looks really good for active and cold wx. Not a big storm pattern but every day that goes by looks more and more like late Jan is going to produce at least some accum snow in these parts. If we start feb looking like this then good things could happen in prime climo. This is not a dry look imho 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 this might be the biggest slap in the face in modeling history 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 @Ji After fading the 18z gefs is resurrecting the potential for the storm next week to do something. Mean h5 pattern doesn't start looking good until after the 26t-27th so it would be a bonus storm if it works out. Overall the 18z run qualifies as happy hour. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Hearing the weeklies are mint from week 2 on, and are frigid through march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 @Ji No way in hell is that going to be a rainstorm if this setup happens... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ji said: this might be the biggest slap in the face in modeling history How the hell is that even possible with such a frigid antecedent airmass? Good thing it's 360 hrs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Ops are definitely warming up to the blocking idea on the ens... wow. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: How the hell is that even possible with such a frigid antecedent airmass? Good thing it's 360 hrs away. That would change to snow. Not worth debating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Based on the seasonal predictions this is not acceptable. This goes to March 4th ......Meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Based on the seasonal predictions this is not acceptable. This goes to March 4th ......Meh When was the last time seasonal prediction ever worked out as modeled? We can't even get 3to 5 days correct let alone seasonal. Toss. We will score by Feb 5thSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: That would change to snow. Not worth debating It wouldn't even be rain to start with. @psuhoffman Starting to see the neg ao/nao coming into focus in under 10 days. This is going to cause a lot of swings as we get closer. It's really hard to get the timing right when a -nao starts building. It can be sudden and that's why long lead verification scores are so low as leads lengthen. If things happen faster than currently expected then confidence and accuracy of d7+ will drop just as quickly. Model volatility will be fun because we're probably going to see a lot of fantasy big storms but there will be no consistency with timing and track. I'm forecasting an onslaught of "models suck" in the near future. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, luckyamaha said: When was the last time seasonal prediction ever worked out as modeled? We can't even get 3to 5 days correct let alone seasonal. Toss. We will score by Feb 5th Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk The last panel i would trust with weekly guidance is snowmaps. Lol It does fit the narrative that things will be busy in the east for a while. Other than everything, nothing can go wrong though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, frd said: Based on the seasonal predictions this is not acceptable. This goes to March 4th ......Meh Verbatim, that would put me 15" above climo. So, if not another flake fell I would end the season roughly at 150% snowfall for the season. Perspective....and one KU sends me to 200%.... I hear what you are saying tho....a lot of talk about historic type stuff. Still on the table imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, frd said: Based on the seasonal predictions this is not acceptable. This goes to March 4th ......Meh What a waste of compute resources 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 JB saying the weeklies are cold through 45-60. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @Ji After fading the 18z gefs is resurrecting the potential for the storm next week to do something. Mean h5 pattern doesn't start looking good until after the 26t-27th so it would be a bonus storm if it works out. Overall the 18z run qualifies as happy hour. Looks solid but I prefer this one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 18 minutes ago, frd said: Based on the seasonal predictions this is not acceptable. This goes to March 4th ......Meh I wouldn’t read too much into that. It’s only one ensemble mean from one model and it shows that we have many chances. How they turn out, nobody knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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