Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 41 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I would prefer for everybody to get some snow Push come to shove, I love cold, so I could survive cold and dry. After last year, I'm tired of cold and dry. Last year was some of the most wasted cold! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 hours ago, cbmclean said: This is a major learning moment for me. Day 15 model forecasts are worth nothing more than toilet paper? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Healthy system down the line on the CMC... On a weird double-barreled front that has the leading LP in Canada (rain for us) and the trailing low in texas (snow, when it finally moves up the coast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Healthy system down the line on the CMC... On a weird double-barreled front that has the leading LP in Canada (rain for us) and the trailing low in texas (snow, when it finally moves up the coast). There's the 24th/25th storm signal showing up again as you mentioned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: After last year, I'm tired of cold and dry. Last year was some of the most wasted cold! I've always loved winter for it's cold and snow. I know some of you see winter as a waste with a lack of snow, and I get that, but I still enjoy those long periods of sub-freezing temps. Love to watch the lakes, streams, resoviors freeze! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The block has returned to the GFS. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: After last year, I'm tired of cold and dry. Last year was some of the most wasted cold! Well we got some snow to go along with it. Not too much, but enough to drive me down to 0 F one night, which is quite an accomplishment for eastern NC. There has been some mention on the SE board of 1994, which was notable for us for some bitter cold outbreaks interspersed with "warm up and rain" storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 hours ago, jaydreb said: The block has returned to the GFS. I would bet that PSU enthusiastically approves of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Euro op has a block day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Unacceptable 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 We lost the stj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This new pattern change is depressing. All northern stream...boring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Losing the southern stream has always been one of my bigger concerns, mainly because it has happened in so many other years. Let’s hope it stays around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 cant emphasize enough how desperately we will need this event to happen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 @Ji the boundary looks to stall near the east coast beteeen the 24-26 and something could come from that. But you’re right after that the mother load of cold drops the hammer and as probably go dry with clippers as our only hope for a while. We need that tpv to weaken. It will. Maybe a week. 10 days at most. But the stj didn’t die it’s just being suppressed by an extreme pattern. That’s not the same thing. If the blocking holds like guidance suggests we would get favorable periods. And this could break right. We get some snow on the front of this then extreme cold and clippers can be fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We get some snow on the front of this then extreme cold and clippers can be fun. That would work, SOI positive today, you think a few days and then the big drop? Daily contribution to SOI calculation1.56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 @psuhoffman wonder the pattern needed for a Manitoba Mauler for us? Very rare but severe snowstorm normally more impact up North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji the boundary looks to stall near the east coast beteeen the 24-26 and something could come from that. But you’re right after that the mother load of cold drops the hammer and as probably go dry with clippers as our only hope for a while. We need that tpv to weaken. It will. Maybe a week. 10 days at most. But the stj didn’t die it’s just being suppressed by an extreme pattern. That’s not the same thing. If the blocking holds like guidance suggests we would get favorable periods. And this could break right. We get some snow on the front of this then extreme cold and clippers can be fun. You can really see that scanning through the snowfall maps from day 11-15 on the EPS. Lots of tracks that look like they originate in Canada and slide down the western ridge as they move east as the SS is pushed south. Could be a miller b type patter with some blocking showing signs of life just after day 10. The hope would be as the cold relaxes but with the block in tact post day 15, that they could meet up near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 [mention=514]Ji[/mention] the boundary looks to stall near the east coast beteeen the 24-26 and something could come from that. But you’re right after that the mother load of cold drops the hammer and as probably go dry with clippers as our only hope for a while. We need that tpv to weaken. It will. Maybe a week. 10 days at most. But the stj didn’t die it’s just being suppressed by an extreme pattern. That’s not the same thing. If the blocking holds like guidance suggests we would get favorable periods. And this could break right. We get some snow on the front of this then extreme cold and clippers can be fun. As bob says....congratulations to Panama city. I aslo dont think mjo is a big factor...it looks to die in phase 7 in cod by early feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: cant emphasize enough how desperately we will need this event to happen Similar to what the CMC has been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 You can really see that scanning through the snowfall maps from day 11-15 on the EPS. Lots of tracks that look like they originate in Canada and slide down the western ridge as they move east as the SS is pushed south. Could be a miller b type patter with some blocking showing signs of life just after day 10. The hope would be as the cold relaxes but with the block in tact post day 15, that they could meet up near us.Miller bs can work in severe blocks but this is not how we want to make our money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 After the middle of next week we are probably gonna be tracking NS systems for a while. There is a signal for something on the EPS around or just beyond day 10. NS with hints of some coastal development. Might be able to get something to dig more than usual with the advertised look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 16 minutes ago, LP08 said: You can really see that scanning through the snowfall maps from day 11-15 on the EPS. Lots of tracks that look like they originate in Canada and slide down the western ridge as they move east as the SS is pushed south. Could be a miller b type patter with some blocking showing signs of life just after day 10. The hope would be as the cold relaxes but with the block in tact post day 15, that they could meet up near us. Miller bs can work in severe blocks but this is not how we want to make our money Agreed. But if we can get the advertised look with blocking up top its not a shutout pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: After the middle of next week we are probably gonna be tracking NS systems for a while. There is a signal for something on the EPS around or just beyond day 10. NS with hints of some coastal development. Might be able to get something to dig more than usual with the advertised look. The cool part might also be a threat sneaking up on us as well in a pattern like that, my previous reference to a Manitoba Mauler from DT was made in regards to extreme blocking to get redevelopment far far to our South. For now just speculation ,maybe that pattern is one that comes into view later but clippers should be around. When HM mentioned 1978 recently not sure if he meant the cold or the impacting storms that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Didn't Feb 9-10, 2010 start out as a Manitoba Mauler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: After the middle of next week we are probably gonna be tracking NS systems for a while. There is a signal for something on the EPS around or just beyond day 10. NS with hints of some coastal development. Might be able to get something to dig more than usual with the advertised look. A good ole Manitoba Mauler would work pretty well. Those can be sneaky in the mid and short term. Doesn't happen down here often, but I remember a few. Most notable one was back in '03. Woke up to a 2 hour delay for school when the system came south far enough to spread some snow squalls through northern MD and dropped a quick couple inches in a few hours. PA/NY state got blitzed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The cool part might also be a threat sneaking up on us as well in a pattern like that, my previous reference to a Manitoba Mauler from DT was made in regards to extreme blocking to get redevelopment far far to our South. For now just speculation ,maybe that pattern is one that comes into view later but clippers should be around. When HM mentioned 1978 recently not sure if he meant the cold or the impacting storms that winter. I dont think 78 is known for its cold:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, frd said: The cool part might also be a threat sneaking up on us as well in a pattern like that, my previous reference to a Manitoba Mauler from DT was made in regards to extreme blocking to get redevelopment far far to our South. For now just speculation ,maybe that pattern is one that comes into view later but clippers should be around. When HM mentioned 1978 recently not sure if he meant the cold or the impacting storms that winter. I dont think 78 is known for its cold:) 77 maybe he meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Didn't Feb 9-10, 2010 start out as a Manitoba Mauler?That was an extreme block and still barely got into the action 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 77 maybe he meant.He said 78 but that is known for the new England Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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