ryanconway63 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Euro looks very cold at end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: Leesburg dosent make it past 34 per euro. So much for 60? 60's will be @ 850mbs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Randy will be along shortly to tell you what to do. Yeah the bright sun is coming out... I'm convinced there are patterns in between or greater than surface weather observations... and this a warm pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman Haven't been looking at the CFS weeklies for a few days. Have you seen this for week 3? This would actually work really well here. It's about the only way you can have bn heights in the NW and welcome them. lol 12z GEFS has a pretty similar look at D15. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: MLK weekend event thread started. Voodoo dolls and witchcraft or whatever else you can think of to avoid all rain would be good. Just remember...don't mess with Jobu. It's very bad to steal Jobu's rum...VERY bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 60's will be @ 850mbs Perfect, just where we want it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 25 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh mercy...and only one those worked out in January here: 99-00. Kind of a big storm that month that put most of us at or above climo! Then February...practically nothing! Given that track record...I'd rather we try to score before January ends in case history wants to repeat itself (I hope not--only having January as a window is playing with longer odds) Again, some of this forum doesn't need to much more to hit climo...but those of us from Balt. City north? Yes, lol I remember that storm. The Mets kept saying we would have rain. It was snowing constant at about 42 degrees (Fairfax). My husband was driving friends to BWI, so I know they had snow there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Yeah the bright sun is coming out... I'm convinced there are patterns in between or greater than surface weather observations... and this a warm pattern. Makes perfect sense 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Bouncy House Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 44 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Ice storm Warning would be a nice treat. But we all know to get a good ice storm you need sub 30F...sub 25F preferred. 32 just is a lot of drip during the day. But CAD is often hard to break and seems to verify colder. A treat? 1 inch of ZR is no treat, unless you're fighting a forest fire. I've been having a bad feeling about the CAD on this one for a while. We all know models don't handle it well, and with snow cover only partially melting and an additional inch or two falling, it doesn't really bode well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Makes perfect sense this is a disaster...thats not your El Nino -NAO type of look lol. We need some supression baby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I will post optimistic thoughts in the new thread. But this weekend storm is more likely to shift south than north given all the variables in play. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Roger Smith said: I will post optimistic thoughts in the new thread. But this weekend storm is more likely to shift south than north given all the variables in play. you nailed the last one...i think you might of been under a bit..which would be a first for you haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Really +NAO. Early Spring. I've seen this before when models have +NAO in the medium range and -NAO in the longer range.. the -NAO doesn't happen. I think the models are showing SHUT UP CHUCK. 4 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Maybe a couple hours slower but still looks good. Gets better though the end of the run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Sorry.. one more post. Last Winter 588dm heights made it up to DC on Feb 21st, that was a new record. Today's 10 day Euro shows 582dm off the NW coast on Jan 25th.. 10c 850mb line all the way up to Vancover, BC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Oh great, that should add a few hundred feet to the inversion cloud layer above my head then. Here's a schematic ... ^ ^^^ - - - - - - - - 10 deg C ^^^^^^ %@%@%@%@%@% cloud @%@%@%@%@% ^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^^^^ ------------- drizzle ----------- drizzle ---- ^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ moi ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 19 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I think the models are showing SHUT UP CHUCK. That’s amazing I saw that same look! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 18 minutes ago, LP08 said: Maybe a couple hours slower but still looks good. Gets better though the end of the run. Eps was a great run. Better than last night. Sped up the progression slightly. Really good look last few days. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Eps was a great run. Better than last night. Sped up the progression slightly. Really good look last few days. Thought the same. Looks good. Also looks like no shutout pattern for the next 2 weeks so any precip event has a chance at delivering something. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Thought the same. Looks good. Also looks like no shutout pattern for the next 2 weeks so any precip event has a chance at delivering something. Winter cancel uncancel cancel uncancel? 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Winter cancel uncancel cancel uncancel? Seriously 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 9 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Can't wait for today's rip and read sessions Yeah 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 19 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Seriously It’s awful, isn’t it? Has it always been this bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Winter cancel uncancel cancel uncancel? Thank goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 What does April look like? It's uncancel winter or springSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 44 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Seriously I think you might have comprehension problems with my posts. The main point i made yesterday was difficult times ahead for a clean/large snowstorm. I'd like to see a good counter thesis saying otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 52 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Winter cancel uncancel cancel uncancel? Being a weather hobbyist is not for the faint of heart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 @psuhoffman I thought this touched home in regards to the conversations ealier about the blocking, -NAO and why the models sometimes waiver and fail to produce the expected outcome. Not intended to fully answer any questions on the topic, such as why the GFS had its NAO forecast change, basically delaying the onset of the -NAO, but I still found Amy's post very interesting. Amy H Butler @DrAHButler h4 hours ago More Caveat: One thing that is not clear to me- how much of this is due to initializing model with strong stratospheric initial state vs shorter leadtimes. Amy H Butler @DrAHButler 4h4 hours ago More And of course because I can't edit tweets- by "strong" I mean "extreme", not as in strong positive magnitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 yeah I See 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think you might have comprehension problems with my posts. The main point i made yesterday was difficult times ahead for a clean/large snowstorm. I'd like to see a good counter thesis saying otherwise Trolls gonna troll man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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