aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Found the courage to post again, after that horrific bust last weekend. Most folks underdid snow, but mine was a dry dumpster fire. I think we all want you to forecast a southern slider again for this event. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Found the courage to post again, after that horrific bust last weekend. Most folks underdid snow, but mine was a dry dumpster fire. Always appreciate your insight. Even if it's bad news lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I think we all want you to forecast a souther slider again for this event. LOL That would get me barred for life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: This has a slight feel of one of those deals where it starts as a snow/snizzle/sleet temps never really rise all that much and then the real deal cold comes in. I agree the moisture rarely sticks around for the cold but I do think 50's before cold MIGHT be losing it's grip. Just a morons two cents More often than not, when a storm starts with cad it usually verfies colder in general at the surface than progged. You know this from years of experience of course. Mids are different. Often the flip to sleet then rain is faster with amped west tracks. We did pull of 1 miracle storm in 2014? when a storm tracked west but we were 100% snow but that airmass was crazy. Had tons of wiggle room to rot out. This weekend isn't nearly as good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 @frd Just looked at 6z GEFS and it took a strong move into the blocking camp. Way less disagreement among members. You can see it in the means. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Found the courage to post again, after that horrific bust last weekend. Most folks underdid snow, but mine was a dry dumpster fire. Everyone busts in this game. Everyone. I appreciate that you say what you think regardless of what people want to hear. That is valuable. Doesn’t always win a popularity contest but it’s important. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Found the courage to post again, after that horrific bust last weekend. Most folks underdid snow, but mine was a dry dumpster fire. Your contributions are always welcome. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS looks slightly more progressive...ridge is less amplified and less amplified heights along the coast. Also less phasing with the TPV so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS warms most of DC metro into the upper 30s Saturday afternoon in advance of the precipitation, but we have to remember that the GFS is notoriously terrible at maintaining low-level cold air. I don't think we can discount the NAM idea of the cold air being tough to scour out, especially if we continue to have snow cover. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 @psuhoffman Hopefully the 6z gefs is the right general idea. Like you said yesterday, that broad conus trough actually works really well with a west based block and pv in eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Found the courage to post again, after that horrific bust last weekend. Most folks underdid snow, but mine was a dry dumpster fire. The models led us astray! That secondary thump Sunday evening was much better than anyone expected. In our world, if you are gonna bust, bust low! We all love over performers.. we all hate the letdown of too little when so much more was forecast! Welcome back - live, learn, grow! Lifetime goals! We all like you to be here! Post away! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snobal Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Hi. anyone have the snowmap from the GFS yet ? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 What a storm for central NY. They get absolutely pummeled this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Oh man...this ought to be good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: More often than not, when a storm starts with cad it usually verfies colder in general at the surface than progged. You know this from years of experience of course. Mids are different. Often the flip to sleet then rain is faster with amped west tracks. We did pull of 1 miracle storm in 2014? when a storm tracked west but we were 100% snow but that airmass was crazy. Had tons of wiggle room to rot out. This weekend isn't nearly as good. That was February 2015 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBen89 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 PAGE TOPPER 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That was February 2015 I think I think you're right. The memory of the event is too fresh in my old brain to be 2014. If we get a tpv dump and push deep cold to the deep south later this month we could work with something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman Hopefully the 6z gefs is the right general idea. Like you said yesterday, that broad conus trough actually works really well with a west based block and pv in eastern Canada. Yea like i said I am really looking forward to that look getting into the analog range to see what that spits out for historical perspective. I would imagine some good results might show up. I could find some myself if the government wasn't shut down. I wonder why they still only do analogs out to day 11. It's been day 8 and 11 for a while with NCEP and that made sense 20 years ago but with skill becoming slightly better out to day 15 what would the harm be in generating a day 15 analog? I mean the system is automated and just would need to be programmed, it wouldn't take that much more manpower, I don't think. If someone knows otherwise maybe they could enlighten me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snobal Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS doesn't look too bad . was hoping it was a little more robust then that, we will see what the KING ( euro ) model shows in a little bit I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think you're right. The memory of the event is too fresh in my old brain to be 2014. If we get a tpv dump and push deep cold to the deep south later this month we could work with something similar. It was a really nice event... from a few days out models were forecasting rain even though we had an arctic blast with below 0 temps the day before but the main wave was taking a west track. Then as we got inside 72 hours the guidance started trending colder and colder...but it wasn't really the track that changed just the guidance started to see the cold wasn't going to be evacuated so quick and we would get a nice WAA thump. In the end I had about 7" up here...some places just south of me in central MD got about a foot. I think DC and Baltimore ended up with like 4-6". Then we got some ice on top just to protect our snowpack! One of the best late positive trend fluke bootleg track storms ever! It kind of reminded me a little of the one frontal wave system in 1994 that dumped a foot of snow just north of our area in PA from a west track...only displaced slightly south. If you put arctic air in the way of a storm it gives us a lot more wiggle room for flaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think you're right. The memory of the event is too fresh in my old brain to be 2014. If we get a tpv dump and push deep cold to the deep south later this month we could work with something similar. You're talking about 2/21/2015 I think. Very good for you guys, complete screwjob down here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just looked at 6z GEFS and it took a strong move into the blocking camp. Way less disagreement among members. You can see it in the means. Thanks psu, today's EPS hopefully provides further confidence moving forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I think Bob said it a few days ago...but...if it snows tomorrow and we get some snow this weekend then I think the second half of winter is going to be one of those it just wants to snow kind of deals....even if it's only a couple inches total from now until Monday...that's more than what many were thinking at 8pm last night. Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Models are stilling hinting for something around the 24th...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: Models are stilling hinting for something around the 24th...... Might be a repeat of this weekend yet again. Hopefully the last time. Same situation in SE Canada with the TPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, frd said: Might be a repeat of this weekend yet again. Hopefully the last time. Same situation in SE Canada with the TPV. GGEM shows how it COULD work out...a NS wave goes by to the north which helps to drive the baroclinic zone south, then the trough comes down in pieces with one vort into the plains and another into the TN valley which develops a coastal on the east side of the broad spread out trough. We need the same thing as this time...less consolidated system, weaker waves vs a phased amped up system in the central part of the country. It has happened plenty of times before...we are just rooting for less phasing and less amplitude and a spread out trough instead of what we will be rooting for once we have blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It has happened plenty of times before...we are just rooting for less phasing and less amplitude and a spread out trough instead of what we will be rooting for once we have blocking. So true, what we want now and will want later are indeed going to be two different things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z UKIE remains pretty much the same.... SLP at 72 is along the OK/AR border and at 96 the SLP is in SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: So true, what we want now and will want later are indeed going to be two different things. The gfs tries something similar to the ggem but a day slower and doesn't quite pull it off but the overall evolution is similar enough to think that type of progression has a chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z UKIE remains pretty much the same.... SLP at 72 is along the OK/AR border and at 96 the SLP is in SW VA That would be significantly south of the GFS which at 96 has the low over my house. Timing might be off but GFS tracks the slp through KY and WV so if the UK is in SW VA it is southeast of the GFS track no matter the timing differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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