Chris78 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Quick thump then dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: 12z nam says it probably ain’t happening. Sped up and more interaction with NS. That was a quick glimmer. Was hoping to get to happy hour namming It looked that way, and it is worse at h5, but then the low basically pushes southeast and somewhat looks like the GEFS from a few days ago. Solid snow DC and north at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Quick thump then dry slot. Best case scenario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: But the lack of sampling this time would not be in our favor right now. So not a weenie rule. And I’m pretty sure it was a met making the post. His point was that even though it looks there is s positive trend right now it could easily go right back to the way it looked yesterday. anytime anyone mentions a lack of sampling, whether in favor or not, its a weenie rule. met or not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ralph loves both op runs of the 6z GFS. Neither flips the NAO, the PV rotates up into Greenland and just sits there...pieces break off at times and drop but the AO/NAO remains strongly positive. Luckily this is not the most likely progression. However, there is a minority camp within the GEFS and EPS that agrees with that and it is why the heights up top are not increasing in the means as we get closer...that is not because it is a "weak" block but because about 1/3 of the members don't agree with the blocking at all and after a brief cold blast go back to warm pattern. I am aware of that possibility but right now its a minority showing that. The majority still agrees with the progression we have been expecting. But it is something to keep an eye on in the next few runs. IF things are going to fall apart I expect we will see it happen in the next day or two as the blocking should be coming into the magic 10 day range where it becomes more reliably modeled. We do not want to see it get delayed or pushed back...that would be a sign of trouble. this would be one of the worst weather disasters of our day. Especially after the CWG article yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, DDweatherman said: It looked that way, and it is worse at h5, but then the low basically pushes southeast and somewhat looks like the GEFS from a few days ago. Solid snow DC and north at 84. The low is much weaker and that helps the mid levels from getting torched. Not sure I believe a 1009mb low. That's probably our only path to a front end thump. The antecedent conditions leading in is pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 why? for the love of all things you are trying to glean what the NAM at 84 is showing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: It looked that way, and it is worse at h5, but then the low basically pushes southeast and somewhat looks like the GEFS from a few days ago. Solid snow DC and north at 84. i dont think phasing matters much if its a 1009 low LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: 12z nam says it probably ain’t happening. Sped up and more interaction with NS. That was a quick glimmer. Was hoping to get to happy hour namming Doesnt look horrible to me. 500mb anomalies maps still separate thru 84. Yeah it didnt keep trending and maybe remained the same with any minor changes looking more like noise to me. CAD and HP placement looks slightly better at the surface tho. Also of note the last 3 frames of this run looped actually have lp moving due E or slightly S of due East. Not a horrible setup I've seen much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, DDweatherman said: It looked that way, and it is worse at h5, but then the low basically pushes southeast and somewhat looks like the GEFS from a few days ago. Solid snow DC and north at 84. We’ll probably lose the 84hr look but I do like idea of a more progressive SS that misses the timing with NS. Allows for a front end thump. I know the NAM lacks skill with the timing at longer leads but someone posted earlier that the euro has trended with a flatter and more northerly NS the last three runs in a row. There’s still time to believe in a front end thump for NoVA. And I believe the latest GEFS has the weekend low clusters a little south of the op too. But I could be mistaken, didn’t look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, H2O said: why? for the love of all things you are trying to glean what the NAM at 84 is showing. because it gives us this...so buy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, H2O said: why? for the love of all things you are trying to glean what the NAM at 84 is showing. because snow 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, mappy said: because snow If the NAM showed 9 inches of snow in July, there would be a 125 reply thread. Until every last model shows no snow..there is always hope 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: because it gives us this...so buy it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: However, there is a minority camp within the GEFS and EPS that agrees with that and it is why the heights up top are not increasing in the means as we get closer...that is not because it is a "weak" block but because about 1/3 of the members don't agree with the blocking at all and after a brief cold blast go back to warm pattern. Wow that is eye openning. Is this change recent in terms of the members that don't agree? When did this 1/3 camp of members start accumulating to effect the outcome? If Feb in my opinion is not wall to wall great than we have many private mets and all the models busting, and busting within two weeks of forecast indicating 4 to 6 weeks of deep winter. There can be no delays come late Jan. And, this goes along with a lasting SSWE that shows pretty good signs of downwelling and favors our side of the world. So a lot on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: A storm giving the northern tier good snow while semi-screwing the southern gang would balance the karma of things. 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is a way for my area to get screwed again... The clown map for last night's CMC run made me laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ji said: because it gives us this...so buy it I mean it doesn’t get any more clear concise and 100% true than this. If a model shows snow I’m going to hug it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, frd said: Wow that is eye openning. Is this change recent in terms of the members that don't agree? When did this 1/3 camp of members start accumulating to effect the outcome? If Feb in my opinion is not wall to wall great than we have many private mets and all the models busting, and busting within two weeks of forecast indicating 4 to 6 weeks of deep winter. There can be no delays come late Jan. And, this goes along with a lasting SSWE that shows pretty good signs of downwelling and favors our side of the world. So a lot on the table. Ok so maybe we dont hit an 'epic pattern' when all is said and done. Who knows? But I will say this....the PAC puke pattern is gone, many of us just had snow less than 5 days ago, we are tracking more light snow for Thurs PM into Friday, then another event being tracked for the weekend. Things could be alot worse and I caution people to not get overly invested in the LR pattern stuff at this point for many reasons but the most obvious one is that you are going to miss out on actual winter weather that we have going on in front of us right now. Is it perfect? No. But when is it wall to wall perfection honestly? I said it before and will echo it again....searching epic unicorn patterns in the extended LR is overrated. I realize this is some people's forte and that is respected but for avg Joe like me and many of us we really are genuinely only concerned with actual weather production in the current or short range. And that's not to say I never look LR because I do but I learn something new everyday and I have learned that tempering expectations while being cautiously optimistic is the way to go for myself anyway. Here's hoping for many snowy days for all of us. Cheers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Instigate much? I've backed off the LR stuff for now it has been unreliable in general and you know this. Didnt even look at the ops at range tbh until this was posted. But no I dont like this look at all. I sense some concerns and cracks in your armor starting to surface regarding the epic pattern change. I'm not worried about it. Just teasing... the soi today is -7, and I suspect that is partly why we aren't seeing the same reaction to a strong warm phase MJO as we did last month. I am not "worried" but that does not mean I am blind to the fact that long range forecasts don't always go as expected. I am more confident in this one because the guidance is unanimous in the look (a very rare thing for long range guidance) and it looks like what the pattern analogs indicated was likely. The SOI is not cooperating. All of that points towards this being real. BUT that doesnt mean its a lock and I wont be looking out for possible curves in the road. The big problem with the gfs and fv3 op runs wasn't the atlantic imo but the pacific again. It reverts back to the pacific firehose pattern. While the NAO fails to go negative I think the catalyst is on the other side. The AO gets weakened initially from the pacific forcing and then the ridging in the atlantic takes advantage of that weakness and retrogrades and links with the ridge on the EPO side. Absent that weakness the Atlantic ridging cannot retrograde and the whole process fails. But the problem is from the pacific reverting to the same crap pattern. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: While the NAO fails to go negative I think the catalyst is on the other side. The AO gets weakened initially from the pacific forcing and then the ridging in the atlantic takes advantage of that weakness and retrogrades and links with the ridge on the EPO side. Absent that weakness the Atlantic ridging cannot retrograde and the whole process fails. But the problem is from the pacific reverting to the same crap pattern. I believe in simple terms this is what Isotherm alluded to in his last update. This entire time frame Jan 15 to Jan 25 th I thought was a secondary reshuffle. The Pac is the issue. But, as you said we are just discussing, premature to know what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 19 minutes ago, cae said: The clown map for last night's CMC run made me laugh. Northern MD screw zone....PSU jinxed himself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 29 minutes ago, Ji said: because it gives us this...so buy it Absconding ALEET! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Icon gives north and west of cities a frozen front end. Appears the CAD is showing up as we get closer to game time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Those NAM images include sleet as well. The CAD will continue to get stronger on the models as we get closer to the event it always does. I wouldnt be shocked to pick up a couple of inches of snow/sleet on the front end for those of us to the NW with rain on top. Once the arctic air pushes in that slop is going to freeze into a glacier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 33 minutes ago, frd said: Wow that is eye openning. Is this change recent in terms of the members that don't agree? When did this 1/3 camp of members start accumulating to effect the outcome? If Feb in my opinion is not wall to wall great than we have many private mets and all the models busting, and busting within two weeks of forecast indicating 4 to 6 weeks of deep winter. There can be no delays come late Jan. And, this goes along with a lasting SSWE that shows pretty good signs of downwelling and favors our side of the world. So a lot on the table. I am not sure...at day 15 I would expect there to be some disagreement within the members. Now that the flip is around day 10 I am a slight bit more concerned that there is still a decent camp of divergence. But it is NOT the majority. I wouldn't be overly concerned with it. It's still far enough out that some disagreement is normal. And one good thing, if you look at the individual members that do agree with the -nao, among them there are a LOT of classic STJ miller a gulf storms coming at us in the day 10-16 period. I would only get concerned if in the next day or two we start to see the mean move away from the idea of the nao flipping. We are about the range now where if it continues to progress closer in time I would get more confident that it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Icon gives north and west of cities a frozen front end. Appears the CAD is showing up as we get closer to game time. The ICON sure is cold at the surface. Places like Westminster up to PSU and Loseto barely break freezing in the event. CAD has been showing up better as the wedge increases from that high to our north. Ideally, would like to see the GFS do further separation of the streams or wash the wave out to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Those NAM images include sleet as well. The CAD will continue to get stronger on the models as we get closer to the event it always does. I wouldnt be shocked to pick up a couple of inches of snow/sleet on the front end for those of us to the NW with rain on top. Once the arctic air pushes in that slop is going to freeze into a glacier. This has a slight feel of one of those deals where it starts as a snow/snizzle/sleet temps never really rise all that much and then the real deal cold comes in. I agree the moisture rarely sticks around for the cold but I do think 50's before cold MIGHT be losing it's grip. Just a morons two cents 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Had a nice map discussion and analysis with colleagues and the NAM looks interesting. H300 jet core pushed south on the 06z run and much the same on 12z. That would tend to force the CAD wedge in deeper over our region. Looks to be showing up now with frozen precip Saturday. That is a cold airmass up there, may be interesting to see how/if this trend evolves in the other guidance. CAD is usually underdone in the guidance, but WAA also looks quite strong too. Quite a battle of airmasses, but with more wintry impacts to our area especially areas north and west of the cities. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Found the courage to post again, after that horrific bust last weekend. Most folks underdid snow, but mine was a dry dumpster fire. 4 3 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Not sure if already mentioned, and yes it's the NAM so take it for what it's worth, but the 12z run appears to be a bit weaker and further south with the weekend event. It also seems like it wants to give a solid front end thump north of I-66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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