Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January/February Medium/Long Range Disco


nj2va
 Share

Recommended Posts

Non joking post...

I went back and compared ens runs for the last 4 days and being totally honest it looks like we're going to struggle for snow through close to the end of the month. Will it get cold to very cold before then? Yes, it's getting close to a lock that much of the conus east of the rockies is going to get hit flush as the tpv gets displaced southward and the neg nao builds. That should evolve during d10-15 because every piece of guidance show the same thing.  When it drops down I have a strong hunch it's going to (temporarily) crush storm chances. Prior to that we will get cold shots but they will be progressive and fairly short lived.

Clippers or weak shortwaves are always possible but I don't think we're getting any juiced snowstorms until the tpv retreats to eastern Canada (prob not until sometime during the last 4 days or so of January at the earliest from what I'm seeing). Unfortunately we're going to have to deal with 2 or maybe 3 storms that track overhead or west of us. Could one of these snow on us? Maybe but imho the best chance will be eroding CAD as a storm approaches. I don't see any obvious features that could lock in a cold HP. I'm not expecting any confluence at all to slow the escape of hp to the north or shunt a storm underneath us due to the ridging in general 50/50 area. However, you can never rule out a well timed transient 50/50 or something like that.

If you go back and look at previous neg nao periods it's far more commom for us to get a good snowstorm when the nao is rising and not falling ( hopefully it will start falling around d9-11). I'm not expecting a total shutout through the end of Jan. Anytime there's cold air around our area and active flow we can get an event in a flawed pattern. We're not out of the game but strong shortwaves will likely rain on us through the next 10 days. Once we get to the 25th or so it looks like suppressed/dry pattern until the tpv starts to retreat (hopefully retreating and hitting a block in the Davis Straight). 

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That was the one! My parents had "estimated" 16" with 3-4' drifts. Pics and video from my dad were insane. 

The satellite image of that storm is super impressive, not to mention the rate at which it deepened. It's a shame that it missed us to the east.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Looking at today’s runs for the ops and ensembles I know pessimism is certainly understandable but here’s my take moving through end of January through early February:

The WAR seems to be progressing on models to the NAO domain and flipping it negative towards the end of these runs. Been pretty consistent on GFS and seems like it’s heading that way on the euro.

Having the AO flip very negative gives us an opportunity when it starts to relax. Some of our bigger events tend to come on the tail ends of big telleconnection changes (NAO flip, or AO, etc)

If we can maintain some semblance of a split flow and a decently active SS, I really think we can see the first or 2nd week in February pop.

I know there’s a lot of unknowns in my hypothetical but I really like that the AO flips strong and the NAO seemlying is going to do the same. Get through the cold suppressive period for a short time and hopefully there’s a nice surprise at the end of the tunnel. 

Lol- we were typing at the same time and conveyed the same thoughts

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Lol- we were typing at the same time and conveyed the same thoughts

Wow, that’s a huge compliment. I feel honored, no bs!

I’ve read yours and psu’s and other really good posters on here for years. I started back in the Eastern weather forum days before the conversion. Never spoke cause I had no clue what to say.

Everything I’ve learned I’ve picked up from you guys. I know my analysis needs work and is more remedial in nature then yours and the other experience Mets, etc. but it’s nice to know it’s come full circle. 

I appreciate that. Means a lot to just another winter weather weenie hoping for a little snow in his life :scooter:

  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Non joking post...

I went back and compared ens runs for the last 4 days and being totally honest it looks like we're going to struggle for snow through close to the end of the month. Will it get cold to very cold before then? Yes, it's getting close to a lock that much of the conus east of the rockies is going to get hit flush as the tpv gets displaced southward and the neg nao builds. That should evolve during d10-15 because every piece of guidance show the same thing.  When it drops down I have a strong hunch it's going to (temporarily) crush storm chances. Prior to that we will get cold shots but they will be progressive and fairly short lived.

Clippers or weak shortwaves are always possible but I don't think we're getting any juiced snowstorms until the tpv retreats to eastern Canada (prob not until sometime during the last 4 days or so of January at the earliest from what I'm seeing). Unfortunately we're going to have to deal with 2 or maybe 3 storms that track overhead or west of us. Could one of these snow on us? Maybe but imho the best chance will be eroding CAD as a storm approaches. I don't see any obvious features that could lock in a cold HP. I'm not expecting any confluence at all to slow the escape of hp to the north or shunt a storm underneath us due to the ridging in general 50/50 area. However, you can never rule out a well timed transient 50/50 or something like that.

If you go back and look at previous neg nao periods it's far more commom for us to get a good snowstorm when the nao is rising and not falling ( hopefully it will start falling around d9-11). I'm not expecting a total shutout through the end of Jan. Anytime there's cold air around our area and active flow we can get an event in a flawed pattern. We're not out of the game but strong shortwaves will likely rain on us through the next 10 days. Once we get to the 25th or so it looks like suppressed/dry pattern until the tpv starts to retreat (hopefully retreating and hitting a block in the Davis Straight). 

 

...i just remember what certain people were saying just 12 days ago about our prospects for the rest of January....

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

...i just remember what certain people were saying just 12 days ago about our prospects for the rest of January....

Yea, looked like cold and precip chances would be likely (which is still true) but getting them to combine overhead over the next 10 day looks more challenging now that leads have shortened and the picture is becoming more clear. We did score a nice storm and have another potential light event in the short range so Jan definitely broke in our favor already. Wall to wall? Nasomuch

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Via tombo from the SNE thread.  Probably already too late for us, but good post to read

13 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I know we all want what the ukmet shows, and that is a non phase with the tpv lobe that swings around. Here are the last 3 runs of the euro, including the 18z run. Can see each run of the euro continues to delay the northern stream interaction and almost tries to make it just a separate southern stream wave by itself.  Can also see in response to the pac nw low the ridge in the west is losing amplitude and rolling over pushing east.  Just thought I  would share

5c3e76a936ff3.gif

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

For Saturday /....big timing spread 

(12z)

Gfs- Top

Euro

Uk 

 

Screenshot_20190115-200535_Chrome_crop_432x788.jpg

Screenshot_20190115-200554_Chrome_crop_432x681.jpg

Screenshot_20190115-200610_Chrome_crop_459x689.jpg

i think we want slower, so the high building in is out ahead of the ss or at least not lagging behind it.  otherwise, it looks like the storm is finding a weakness and cutting too far west.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Non joking post...

I went back and compared ens runs for the last 4 days and being totally honest it looks like we're going to struggle for snow through close to the end of the month. Will it get cold to very cold before then? Yes, it's getting close to a lock that much of the conus east of the rockies is going to get hit flush as the tpv gets displaced southward and the neg nao builds. That should evolve during d10-15 because every piece of guidance show the same thing.  When it drops down I have a strong hunch it's going to (temporarily) crush storm chances. Prior to that we will get cold shots but they will be progressive and fairly short lived.

Clippers or weak shortwaves are always possible but I don't think we're getting any juiced snowstorms until the tpv retreats to eastern Canada (prob not until sometime during the last 4 days or so of January at the earliest from what I'm seeing). Unfortunately we're going to have to deal with 2 or maybe 3 storms that track overhead or west of us. Could one of these snow on us? Maybe but imho the best chance will be eroding CAD as a storm approaches. I don't see any obvious features that could lock in a cold HP. I'm not expecting any confluence at all to slow the escape of hp to the north or shunt a storm underneath us due to the ridging in general 50/50 area. However, you can never rule out a well timed transient 50/50 or something like that.

If you go back and look at previous neg nao periods it's far more commom for us to get a good snowstorm when the nao is rising and not falling ( hopefully it will start falling around d9-11). I'm not expecting a total shutout through the end of Jan. Anytime there's cold air around our area and active flow we can get an event in a flawed pattern. We're not out of the game but strong shortwaves will likely rain on us through the next 10 days. Once we get to the 25th or so it looks like suppressed/dry pattern until the tpv starts to retreat (hopefully retreating and hitting a block in the Davis Straight). 

 

Hopefully this isn’t like 1985. That would be a nightmare. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

smarta**.....You know I actually have reason to root for DC now....my daughter moved there for her job this fall and she definitely has the snow weenie gene.   
 
If we were still one big forum...you would be insufferable right now
  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Bob Chill one thing that could save us...the tpv drops pretty far west on some runs. That would open the door for systems to run the coast and could even open the opportunity for a monster phased system like the blizzard of 66. That was such a pattern I believe. If it comes down on top of us then your right. Squash city. I’m very curious what the analogs will show. I’m kinda frustrated I thought today’s day 11 centered on the 26 would start to indicate some blocking but even though it’s shoeing a bit on the GEFS by then it’s not on the analog height anomalies yet. Guess I have to wait one more day. But I want to see what it spits out once the -NAO -epo with the displaced tpv shows up in analogs. Might be telling. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Flying Bouncy House said:

Hi all, I've been a lurker for a while now and decided to sign up.  I haven't seen any posts regarding CAD signals for the start of the event this coming weekend.  Any indication that may be a problem in certain areas along the I-81 corridor?  

 

 

as of now, from Chambersburg and pts NE yes, but right now you might be a little too far south for much trouble other than early on.  Any flatter w/ the ridging/digging of the system and you might hold some cold especially if the HP in NNY holds.  Good luck

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm thinking from Frederick/ Hagerstown on north myself for front end frozen chances .

Of note ...Saturday morning most  wake up to lows in the 20-25 range and northern+west  tier doesn't likely get above freezing . Yea...models are notoriously too quick moving low level cold out esp at range.  Here we are about 100 hours out . I'm leaning frozen up this way at onset . Euro actually bumped the strength of the high pressure north of New York at 12z a bit as precip is approaching.  

yeah, I think your right that frozen starts down there, but as track is now, even w/ HP seeming to hold ground, LP track scours the 850's after a few hours. 

I'm in your camp and have been for days in that any less ridging out front, and track could adjust east as we have a major push of cold coming, so a correction SE isnt out of the realm IMO.  Im rooting for you to be more right than wrong, and for a longer time.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Ji said:
2 hours ago, buckeye said:
smarta**.....You know I actually have reason to root for DC now....my daughter moved there for her job this fall and she definitely has the snow weenie gene.   
 

If we were still one big forum...you would be insufferable right now

I blame climo....that  and spending years posting with one of the greatest forum trolls in internet history.;)

  • Like 2
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...