mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: .30" qpf, Low 30's, Good luck Are you doubting my substantial meteorological skills? . I see .35 and 12:1. Because arctic air Thursday! And emails 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM has consistently been unimpressed with this one for 3-4 cycles...though it's still in clown range for that model. I don't know if this makes any sense for this 'little critter' but... the NAM's domain terminates west of the west coast out around 130 W (I think) which this system's gunk (right now) is still just sort of nosing through that longitude this morning... Times to move closer to and pass over roughly Frisco ... 24 hours from now and then moves swiftly across the country in the fast compressed flow... I pretty sure the NAM gets a relay from the globals at the edges but don't quote me. In any case, the NAM is not the best tool for this probably until Wednesday night sometime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like dogshit. What happened to low end warning amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: What happened to low end warning amounts? Not sure i have seen any, That airmass is rather marginal, GFS has been the most bullish with some 3-4" totals if someone wants to run with that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 There's a subtle northern stream s/w with this and the NAM almost seems to be letting it get absorbed into the periphery of the PV. The GFS at least has some semblance of it with some weak vorticity and a slight bend in the isohypses. It's probably just another NAM synoptic failure, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Wouldn't be running with hr84 Nam depictions, There is some room for this one to be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Not sure i have seen any, That airmass is rather marginal, GFS has been the most bullish with some 3-4" totals if someone wants to run with that right now. That's what the GFS argued for 12hrs ago. My how models have changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That's what the GFS argued for 12hrs ago. My how models have changed. Maybe one run? Looks like its been cutting back since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: There's a subtle northern stream s/w with this and the NAM almost seems to be letting it get absorbed into the periphery of the PV. The GFS at least has some semblance of it with some weak vorticity and a slight bend in the isohypses. It's probably just another NAM synoptic failure, but we'll see. yeah...again, it may not even be detecting that and/or mechanical parcels about that because the NAM's grid doesn't really even extend as far west in to the Pacific as this event's governing "fractals" are presently is moving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 24 minutes ago, tunafish said: Agreed, just not enough moisture to support much over 3". Maybe a lucky locale will pull 4 if they see good rates and ratios. I have a feeling this is gonna be one of those "radar looks like crap" storms, too. Should easily be cold enough up here, so hoping for nice ratios, 15:1 or better. (Could also get 8:1 snow grains if dendrite growth is terrible.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 actually, forget it Brian... I got my wave spaces flipped... This piece is sort of straddling the Cali coast and is awaiting the more important relay out of the central Pac kick it east - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: actually, forget it Brian... I got my wave spaces flipped... This piece is sort of straddling the Cali coast and is awaiting the more important relay out of the central Pac kick it east - I've been watching that one dropping out of Alberta that gets grinded quite a bit before reaching New England. It just seemed to me the GFS had a ghost of it remaining while the NAM just sucked it into the general PV vorticity. You can go cross-eyed looking for it though and it may not have anything even to do with the solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12Z ICON is about what I expect out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 12Z ICON is about what I expect out of this. That is a pretty safe bet... 1-3" Maybe someone squeezes 4" from this on a hilltop in NW Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That is a pretty safe bet... 1-3" Maybe someone squeezes 4" from this on a hilltop in NW Mass How has 1-3” worked out last 7 storms now while different conditions promote different results if this is shearing weakening as it traverses SNE due to compressed flow , I really don’t wanna go down this “ooo, looks like we had bad luck again” scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: How has 1-3” worked out last 7 storms now while different conditions promote different results if this is shearing weakening as it traverses SNE due to compressed flow , I really don’t wanna go down this “ooo, looks like we had bad luck again” scenario Several storms have produced over 1" of rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12z GFS looks flatter with this wave in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: 12z GFS looks flatter with this wave in the midwest. Yeah, it's compressing the flow, shearing out that northern piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z GFS looks flatter with this wave in the midwest. Seems to juice up on approach but majority for eastern areas seems to fall between 8-noon. Compression depression . Not awful but would rather 6-12 hrs earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 It's looking more like the Euro. I wouldn't be going more than 1-3 right now...and it could still be less than that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Not as good a run as the 06z GFS, Qpf looks like it got cut again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1-3" is a safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 First thoughts, general paint brush of 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 34 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: First thoughts, general paint brush of 2". You taking any action on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Meanwhile, the Pats might be playing in Below 0 weather! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 James and I are getting rain, end of story... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Meanwhile, the Pats might be playing in Below 0 weather! It won't be the first time they play in single digits, I was at the titan playoff game on 01/10/04 when it was 4°F at the razor, Won't be anything TB12 hasn't seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I am more worried about snow and rain and wind instead of cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 36 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: James and I are getting rain, end of story... It's a meh storm anyway, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I would love snow with this system, but I can take one more rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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