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Jan 18 Appetizer


HoarfrostHubb
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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice 18z euro trend. Juiced up a bit. Prob low end advisory type amounts...really need to see one more frame for the totals but it's a pretty good through 90h which is where the run stops in off hour runs. 

Does it snow most of Friday morning or is it kind of a midnight -7:00 am deal?

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Does it snow most of Friday morning or is it kind of a midnight -7:00 am deal?

Euro looks like it goes into Friday morning. 18z run stops at 12z Friday but it is snowing steadily at that point with an inch or two down. 

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice 18z euro trend. Juiced up a bit. Prob low end advisory type amounts...really need to see one more frame for the totals but it's a pretty good through 90h which is where the run stops in off hour runs. 

Keep forgetting we have this thread for that, I commented in the other that it was more amped and north of 12z, If it went a few more panels it looked like it could be a 3-4" deal.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ask Will for his thoughts then calls him a liar, WTF?

I think he just means he doesn't believe it will verify. Which is fine...it's 3+ days out...they could end up with a bit more CAD and get a couple inches. But the Euro was prob a little too toasty in the city for that. NW suburbs prob saw some accumulations.

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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

How far NW does that warm tongue get thrusted?  BOX’s AFD makes it sound like it all gets washed away.  I am doubting that

I am skeptical it even gets above freezing in the interior...or at least more than mid 30s. Depends where the sfc low tracks...it's pretty weak but it will still allow mild air if it tracks west of us. But it looks like to me there's some CAD that will be underplayed on guidance. Could torch a bit in SE areas.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

84hr NAM? Good luck.

The vortex in Canada is pretty far south and the energy causing the trof in the PAC NW is a classic signal for a HPN-BDR—Cape or even NYC SWFE.  If you look at a composite of stations in coastal SNE down to NYC for SWFEs where they remained mostly frozen there are low heights near SEA while the events where ORH-BOS-POU-BDL do better the heights out that way tend to be higher.  The problem NYC has in this event though is the high position is poor causing SE flow and SSTs are warmer than normal.  I think NYC will stay snow much longer than JFK will and EWR might never change over at all

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Nam and Icon identical,  what could go wrong....

Someone in the MA forum (he’s a reliable poster) swears that the ICON is very good at sniffing out the eventual occurrence or even end track of a system at 108-144 then it completely loses things and sucks thereafter.  Sounds like just random luck on a few events 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Someone in the MA forum (he’s a reliable poster) swears that the ICON is very good at sniffing out the eventual occurrence or even end track of a system at 108-144 then it completely loses things and sucks thereafter.  Sounds like just random luck on a few events 

Bob Chill

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