Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Light Snow Event - 1/17-1/18 Obs and Discussion


nj2va
 Share

Recommended Posts

from LWX morning discussion

The low center will track up the Ohio Valley this afternoon and into
the lower Great Lakes tonight. Increasing isentropic ascent may lead
to some light snow over western areas during the midday hours, but
the bulk of the precipitation will fall during the late afternoon
and evening. There is still a bit of spread amongst model guidance
in terms of onset time, and thus uncertainty on if the evening rush
hour in the metro areas will be impacted. At the moment, higher
confidence lies in the western suburbs, where surface temperatures
will also be colder. Have therefore issued a Winter Weather Advisory
for this area. Have also included portions of north central Maryland
and the far eastern panhandle of West Virginia, where there is some
guidance agreement on an area of 2 inch totals. Amounts generally
around an inch or less will be found across much of the CWA in this
modest QPF event. Higher totals will be found along the Allegheny
Front from a combination of synoptic and upslope snow, so a Winter
Weather Advisory is also in effect for this area. Future adjustments
to the advisories may be needed.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Sim radar looks pretty weak in all honesty. I still think if you score an inch with this one you have done well. Nice to have some fresh snow on top of the snow pack though.

Yeah I think NWS forecast is perfect for this one...coating at best for I95 and metro. crew..temps should stay around 33-34. Best chance for 1” is just NW it’s pretty much just 1” at that. Minor nuisance event

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

 

the SWS says this:


If you plan on commuting this evening, be aware of the potential
for travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel
time, and consider using public transportation and telework
options.

an inch of snow on cold roads during rush hour can completely fork up traffic for hours.   because I got caught in this:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/dr-gridlock/2011/01/rush_hour_storms_are_always_tr.html

 

 

 

6 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

A snowflake on the roads at rush hour can mangle traffic, none the less an inch

Pretty much agree with both of your posts.  Around here... just seeing snow falling causes 30 mile backups on all the major roadways lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1014 AM EST Thu Jan 17 2019

DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-508-VAZ052>054-180000-
/O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0006.190117T2300Z-190118T0900Z/
District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-
Anne Arundel-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
1014 AM EST Thu Jan 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of around one
  inch expected.

* WHERE...The District of Columbia, central and northern Maryland
  and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions and
  sidewalks. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening
  commute after sunset as temperatures fall below freezing.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

the SWS says this:


If you plan on commuting this evening, be aware of the potential
for travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel
time, and consider using public transportation and telework
options.

an inch of snow on cold roads during rush hour can completely fork up traffic for hours.   because I got caught in this:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/dr-gridlock/2011/01/rush_hour_storms_are_always_tr.html

Preach. I was caught in a much more localized version of the Feb 12, 2008 debacle, commuting from Fort Belvoir to my home a mere six miles away -- a normally 20-min trip that turned into a four-hour slog that afternoon. It was only a light snow dropping 1-2" (that I recall), but which created a thin scrum of roadway ice, with cars spinning/bailing out in every direction every few minutes, causing most roads on or around post to randomly close down every 10-20 min on a temp/perm basis. It was a continual battle of wits, to constantly re-think and re-route the escape strategy from Belvoir that afternoon. Hands-down worst commute ever...and reason enough to consider leaving earlier today if indeed flakes arrive earlier, and especially now that we're under a WWA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Well this is an unexpected miracle.  

 

EDIT:  my guess is that potential lead won’t last long.  Feb looks solid for at least another warning event.  Dec gave me confidence in my prediction.  

You're eliminated from winning the contest unless somehow no other airport but BWI gets accumulating snow the rest of the winter. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

shouldn't take too long for flakes to fly given the dews and we currently have an easterly wind.  nam 3k has some better lift moving through right before rush hour, so that could be our start time.

edit: probably close to the end of rush hour, but sometimes these systems move in a little quicker than advertised.  kind of a weak sauce event, but maybe we can get enough steady/moderate to coat things.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Camp David jack

That map added Anne Arundel county, northern PG county, and southern Harford County from < 1" to the 1" - 2"  zones.  Realistically speaking, I'm interested in the impact.  The timing will be everything.  Flakes fly during commute and its havoc despite being lite.  If it doesn't start til 0z, then we're probably in the clear and most will barely notice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...