Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: We def want Sunday's shortwave stronger and to push heights south behind it. That would make Tuesday better. That's what the happy hour GFS does. Every single one of these waves like Sunday has looked good this year . All models have them and even at 2 days they look good. Then we lose them . Hopefully this isn’t the same deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Happy hour GFS run....Sunday more interesting and then a warning event for Tuesday in SNE. That overnight Sunday--> monday evolution narily misses an apocalypse man... holy shit ho ... if only.. Get that 498 core 400 miles S, which at this range is a dime in Met, ... watch out... Heh, nice that the pattern changed, huh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 23 minutes ago, dendrite said: What's the ORH 81-10 norm using your 90s numbers? I think CON will make up a couple inches on their norms after ditching the obs from the airport. 81-10 is 66.9" if I fix the bad 1990s data with our reconstructed F6 data. I think NCDC has it around 64 and change. Obviously that number is going to go way higher when we replace the 1980s with the 2010s. The current 1990-2018 average is like 75" or 76". But it is still going to have the bad 1990s data in there...even the first few years of the 2000s were bad data. Edit: I didn't realize CON isn't measuring at the airport anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Happy hour GFS run....Sunday more interesting and then a warning event for Tuesday in SNE. GFS 15 on board, lower SNE payback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: You can't make this stuff up anymore. This is like the winter that seemingly wants to say "Thanks for putting up with 2012-2016 when Vermonters smoked more cirrus than herb". Bitch Please JSpin 11-12 115 ,12-13 144, 13-14 142, 14-15 144, 15-16 72, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Bitch Please JSpin 11-12 115 ,12-13 144, 13-14 142, 14-15 144, 15-16 72, lol you know what I mean. When Boston suburbs get 100"+, J.Spin's 144" is just about average for him . 2011-12 is probably the last winter we beat SNE sites as a percentage of normal snowfall. Not actual inches but percentage of normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: lol you know what I mean. When Boston suburbs get 100"+, J.Spin's 144" is just about average for him . 2011-12 is probably the last winter we beat SNE sites as a percentage of normal snowfall. Not actual inches but percentage of normal. What is the climo normal for the closest first order station I would like to fact check your assumption 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That overnight Sunday--> monday evolution narily misses an apocalypse man... holy shit ho ... if only.. Get that 498 core 400 miles S, which at this range is a dime in Met, ... watch out... Heh, nice that the pattern changed, huh Only 400 miles to go in 5 days: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Anyone have a snowfall map for this past event? Not sure why BOX didn't do one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Every single one of these waves like Sunday has looked good this year . All models have them and even at 2 days they look good. Then we lose them . Hopefully this isn’t the same deal It falls apart south then north. Funny how mid Novie trended ideally. Should that be the best event, we will never hear the end of the “big fall snows equate to rat winters”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It falls apart south then north. Funny how mid Novie trended ideally. Should that be the best event, we will never hear the end of the “big fall snows equate to rat winters”. Its more October, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anyone have a snowfall map for this past event? Not sure why BOX didn't do one... Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 How many inches did Boston get this past event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Watch the area get 30-40" in March again. Our new winter month. The area? Aren’t you NJ? That’s not this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its more October, though. How many warning events have BOS and HFD had in Oct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: You can't make this stuff up anymore. This is like the winter that seemingly wants to say "Thanks for putting up with 2012-2016 when Vermonters smoked more cirrus than herb". Boy that’s quite a gradient just to my east. I’m frolicking in powder while klw and Allenson(assuming he’s still around these parts) are raging at the light coating and slush. That would be a rare feat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It falls apart south then north. Funny how mid Novie trended ideally. Should that be the best event, we will never hear the end of the “big fall snows equate to rat winters”. Well I just meant I think the bigger event is Monday or Tuesday. Every time we’ve tried to have one of these weaker waves modeled to drop at least advisory snows a day or two in advance of the main course.. they’ve all hit the meat grinder. I can think of 3-4 of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 47 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol you know what I mean. When Boston suburbs get 100"+, J.Spin's 144" is just about average for him . 2011-12 is probably the last winter we beat SNE sites as a percentage of normal snowfall. Not actual inches but percentage of normal. We should really be comparing standard dev rather than percentage of normal. Like a 2 sigma winter in BOS is prob over double their average snowfall while a 2 sigma winter in Stowe is like 140% of average or something. You don't see double annual snowfall in Stowe. That's like 4 sigma lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: We should really be comparing standard dev rather than percentage of normal. Like a 2 sigma winter in BOS is prob over double their average snowfall while a 2 sigma winter in Stowe is like 140% of average or something. You don't see double annual snowfall in Stowe. That's like 4 sigma lol. Yeah I like that metric. I've always thought it was tough to compare, you have total snowfall and you have percent of average. But yet mountains and their valleys in NNE rarely seem to deviate from even 70-130% snowfall. Great way to account for the differences in annual snowfall amounts. Would be interesting to compare to see if it matches up with perception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Every single one of these waves like Sunday has looked good this year . All models have them and even at 2 days they look good. Then we lose them . Hopefully this isn’t the same deal Models struggle w the very compressed zonal flow. As they hone in (inside) 48 hours ... shred city . Short wave stretches:elongates:weakens ....poof 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 47 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Models struggle w the very compressed zonal flow. As they hone in (inside) 48 hours ... shred city . Short wave stretches:elongates:weakens ....poof Kinda like a young man’s weenie after an all nighter with a couple of elderly women? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said: How many inches did Boston get this past event? The official Logan tally was 1.6”, but that was bogus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 hours ago, mreaves said: The area? Aren’t you NJ? That’s not this area. I'm in CT for the next 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 55 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: 40/70, you seem to have lost your “smuggness” of the past few weeks, what gives? ? I asked for a snowfall map to verify my forecast...confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 24 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: The official Logan tally was 1.6”, but that was bogus I was going to ask if that total again was too low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 51 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: The official Logan tally was 1.6”, but that was bogus Is Logan taking over for DCA this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I was going to ask if that total again was too low It was. There's only been a couple events there so still too early to make any assumptions, but if they get a few more events where BOS is so egregiously low, I don't see how they can continue to use them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I was going to ask if that total again was too low Well let’s just say every report nearest Logan was 4+. We didn’t really have a marine taint issue for the last storm...it was entirely latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 5 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Don’t worry. We will be getting back at Powderfreak in April when the backdoors keep us at 39F and drizzle Don't even go there . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm in CT for the next 3 months. What are you doing in CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now