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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip
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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Snow maps are likely running heavy over SNE due to sleet, and the QPF is being over modeled.

Bottom line: I still like 5-10"/6-12" followed by sleet and fez drizzle.

I think sleet and ice will be a major problem for alot of people.

Alot of premature spiking yesterday. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Snow maps are likely running heavy over SNE due to sleet, and the QPF is being over modeled.

Bottom line: I still like 5-10"/6-12" followed by sleet and fez drizzle.

I hate these set ups. Good thing I cut all those pine trees down. Not gonna help though with the current depiction. Some place is going to lose power and if past history says any thing it will be close# sell!

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16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the ice is being overplayed...especially with the colder trend. 

Sleet, sure...

If the high remains in that position, you take the under on modeled temps right now. Your area of cold in the sounding would definitely outweigh the area of warmth = sleet. But a threat of a period of freezing rain would definitely be on the leading edge of the cold tuck as it undercuts the warm air aloft.

Near the coast from like NE MA northward could also see a period of freezing rain (verbatim) because we shouldn't see temps warm above freezing (for reason stated above) but have a little warmth aloft near 925. 

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21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks like immediate east coast has a good shot to finally see some snow.

was following Harvey and he’s honkin ...he also has been posting how this has been Boston’s worst winter to date ...on record!

 

Told you man!  This one is coming for you guys.  

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes.

Really puts things into perspective how silly a few were for locking in the super amped crap. Always unlikely with no blocking and a PV breathing down its neck. I've said it a million times....resolve the $ht yourself, develop a valid postulation, and utilize the models as guidance....too many folks forecast backwards, and are thus prone to wildly swinging along with guidance like a weenie in the wind.

We knew all along.  I think a bunch of us postulated it pretty well.  Not driving into that cold air... more SE shifts are coming too.  Far enough away that this easily can go all snow for SNE.

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This is a tough forecast. It's still pretty far out there, but it was a pretty significant shift colder by the 00z guidance. With the tools at my disposal that creates a whiplash forecast to significant snow, at the risk that things trend back slightly warmer with future runs. So I had to artificially blend in the 18z GFS to warm things up and provide a step down but more gradual that solely blending the previous forecast with 00z. 

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13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

This is a tough forecast. It's still pretty far out there, but it was a pretty significant shift colder by the 00z guidance. With the tools at my disposal that creates a whiplash forecast to significant snow, at the risk that things trend back slightly warmer with future runs. So I had to artificially blend in the 18z GFS to warm things up and provide a step down but more gradual that solely blending the previous forecast with 00z. 

So, you're saying you are having fun? ;)

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes.

Really puts things into perspective how silly a few were for locking in the super amped crap. Always unlikely with no blocking and a PV breathing down its neck. I've said it a million times....resolve the $ht yourself, develop a valid postulation, and utilize the models as guidance....too many folks forecast backwards, and are thus prone to wildly swinging along with guidance like a weenie in the wind.

You’d be shocked at who bit yesterday morning on the amped, warm, wet solutions

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4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I feel more confident now that powderfreak is on board.

Ha, that was tongue in cheek.  But less phasing and it's going the way of the UKMET.  That might have been mean though, I doubt you really have a shot.

I just want to see tomorrow's runs when everything comes ashore and energy sampled.  Day 5-6 forecasts are rarely correct without some adjustments.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well let’s hope some of these trends continue today. I’m always afraid of that correction back in the final two days. Even the DC storm came north.

There is like no spread from the North Americans SE of the low track, but a 15 mb spread NW.

The 16.00z suite basically was the perfect solution, with the range of outcomes being this mean track or NW.

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the ice is being overplayed...especially with the colder trend. 

Sleet, sure...

this looks like one of those 93-94 or 06-07 storms lol

The other storm that I was thinking of was the Christmas Day 2002 storm that went from heavy rain to heavy snow here and we ended up getting 8 inches of snow on the backside Christmas night.

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