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Typhoon Tip

January 2019 Discussion II

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'd be more interested in what the Euro says when we are 3 days out or less.  It has been fallible in the 5 day range past year or two. 

Most of these solutions are being taken way too seriously right now. The storm definitely looks like a legit threat, but I get the sense from the reactions that people are treating these runs as if we're 72 hours out....when we're 5 days out.

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I have to agree this isn’t  plowing through CNE. The cold at the same time is pressing south. Now of course that may not help those wanting deep snow, but it has consequences for who gets ice. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I have to agree this isn’t  plowing through CNE. The cold at the same time is pressing south. Now of course that may not help those wanting deep snow, but it has consequences for who gets ice. 

Gimme so much Ice that the dump called trashua has a purge 

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

One could argue 4.5 as most places begin to see precip between 7-10pm sat nite 

Still an eternity for computer models also trying to deal with a pattern change      Hopefully the chaos settles down a bit tomorrow

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12 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

It is incredible how the majority of you find a way argue in favor of a snowier solution at all times.

new here?

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What does the medium range have to do with two weeks out?

I'll go with nothing.

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Believe me, no one here is more frustrated than I am, but you can't let that cloud your perception of the future. Obviously, the sensible result as it pertains to snowfall has been more unsavory than we all had anticipated, but that has very little predictive value for the future. The pattern still looks about as good as it can moving forward, and should it not work out, I'll still call for the same thing heading into a season with an identical hemispheric canvass in the future.

All you can do is interpret the pattern and play the odds-

I think that there is plenty of fun to be had, though.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Believe me, no one here is more frustrated than I am, but you can't let that cloud your perception of the future. Obviously, the sensible result as it pertains to snowfall has been more unsavory than we all had anticipated, but that has very little predictive value for the future. The pattern still looks about as good as it can moving forward, and should it not work out, I'll still call for the same thing heading into a season with an identical hemispheric canvass in the future.

All you can do is interpret the pattern and play the odds-

I think that there is plenty of fun to be had, though.

You have had very good poise Ray thru this all . That makes a good forecaster as well. 

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That would work for many.

Odd placement in the scatter for the actual member pressure centers, though:

image.png.4ad314029c62bc7a497db6f3fbf62d91.png

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41 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

It is incredible how the majority of you find a way argue in favor of a snowier solution at all times.

Happens all of the time.  

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

GEFS individuals and snowfall.  Snowfall is still robust on front end even in the warm solutions.  

IMG_1906.thumb.PNG.45e392da95c5514a6f098c4b1306f5cc.PNG

IMG_1905.thumb.PNG.90649b1a843006485d2392684a9e610f.PNG

E6/E20 doing its dirty work.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I had to make a forecast for my BY right now, it would be for 5-10" of snow/sleet, followed by a few hours of sleet/freezing rain.

Done.

I think the ice impact will be limited by antecedent snow/sleet mantle that will be deposited.

I find this very reasonable.  Dense stuff with a lot of pellets and liquid

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