Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM has been very consistent with the cutter idea. That does give me a little more confidence that we aren't getting a cutter. Heh ...funny.. Yeah ...I haven't even looked yet but in the previous I surmised that the model was unlikely going to succeed in handling/timing critical features to phase more ... which is how/why the only way pretty much it can take a system west of NE - it would have to shift the entire mass-field vortex of the SPV over eastern Canada west. I've noticed this about that model over the years ... sometimes did does not do that and it scores reasonably well along with the other runs, but at other times it tries too hard phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Faster and more amped. Lotta qpf for the qpf queens though. That looks like heavy snow to an absolute scalping for a chunk of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: this run could bring back those insane QPF amounts for the queens I'd rather have 8" of snow then a ton of sleet, then 8" followed by P sunny. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nice event on the GFS for Friday. Really the bulk is overnight Thursday. Thermals be damned too, That's snow for most, except maybe coast and Cape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Identical location to the previous FV3 run, LP over LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Thermals be damned too, That's snow for most, except maybe coast and Cape. I'm sure James sees 1-2'. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 I'm liking the progress/faster 'tendencies' overall... it's a better fit for compression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I love how the GFS puts the CF from Portsmouth to BAF with a sfc low just SE of LI. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 I can tell you I'm 100% certain that if that surface pressure pattern evolution over Quebec evolves like that... the GFS will be too far N with that surface low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm sure James sees 1-2'. He always sees those totals, Even in OES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: I can tell you I'm 100% certain that if that surface pressure pattern evolution over Quebec evolves like that... the GFS will be too far N with that surface low... Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 A few more adjustments and many of us we’ll be hearing the peepers Sunday night. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: I can tell you I'm 100% certain that if that surface pressure pattern evolution over Quebec evolves like that... the GFS will be too far N with that surface low... Model is a disaster when it comes to handling the sfc features. Just laughed at how far inland it pushed the CF despite a sfc track to the southeast. You'd be lucky to get the CF past BOS in that setup with an Arctic molasses airmass and a high to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 This is another reason why I'll take the mixed solutions over confluence-crushers....I don't trust later trends to suppress south due to PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: A few more adjustments and many of us we’ll be hearing the peepers Sunday night. It'll be the first coup the GGEM scores in a decade. Canadians could use the confidence booster. Hopefully it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: A few more adjustments and many of us we’ll be hearing the peepers Sunday night. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A few more adjustments and many of us we’ll be hearing the peepers Sunday night. Cf may set up right over Bos/128 scoots does birdbox challenge over Tobin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Generally as we all see the GFS and FV3 take the Low Center from Southern Central Coast of LI to the far South Shore to the Gulf of Maine. As Tip alluded to, the configuration in Southeastern Canada would not support that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Frigid run. Scooter is safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A few more adjustments and many of us we’ll be hearing the peepers Sunday night. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I’d lock that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It'll be the first coup the GGEM scores in a decade. Canadians could use the confidence booster. Hopefully it works out. I dont know why u guys need to create such a narrative. The gem is just as bad as the gfs. Its outperfoming the gfs for tomorrow on the ma low for nl...and it outperformed the gfs for my blizzard at the beginning of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 We're gonna have to keep an eye on Friday. GFS is close to low end warning for some. Def high end advisory. Granted, it's been the most bullish model. Others haven't been as excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A few more adjustments and many of us we’ll be hearing the peepers Sunday night. Tad warm @H85, H92 and the surface in the SE areas that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Would not mind the ukie moving SE at 144 this hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: I dont know why u guys need to create such a narrative. The gem is just as bad as the gfs. Its outperfoming the gfs for tomorrow on the ma low for nl...and it outperformed the gfs for my blizzard at the beginning of the month. The model blows. Canada created the narrative. Its overall scores are worse than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I dont know why u guys need to create such a narrative. The gem is just as bad as the gfs. Its outperfoming the gfs for tomorrow on the ma low for nl...and it outperformed the gfs for my blizzard at the beginning of the month. I'm talking for here. It literally hasn't scored a coup in as long as I can remember for a big event. Maybe this is the one. GFS typically doesn't either but it's had a few. As usual, Euro will probably be closest to reality but if this ends up as a cutter, that will def be a decisive win for the GGEM in the medium range on a high impact system here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: I dont know why u guys need to create such a narrative. The gem is just as bad as the gfs. Its outperfoming the gfs for tomorrow on the ma low for nl...and it outperformed the gfs for my blizzard at the beginning of the month. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I dont know why u guys need to create such a narrative. The gem is just as bad as the gfs. Its outperfoming the gfs for tomorrow on the ma low for nl...and it outperformed the gfs for my blizzard at the beginning of the month. It blows and you know it. I don’t care about the scores...it’s borderline worthless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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