STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 56 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Is everyone going to ignore the fact that the GEFS/EPS have eastern ridging with AN heights from Feb 2-10. The Pacific in particular looks like a disaster with a raging jet re-emerging. I read similiar i just trust Mets like scooter to post these things if they were in the 10-15 day bc were constantly fed rose colored glasses of that period lately , looks like pacific flow returns w a vengeance around day 14 The mid -end first week of February should offer a storm chance even further SE in SNE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Also I would heavily bet against any phase in this pattern and heavily favor the same ole gradient pattern for mid week (MHT- N ORH County- SW W .mass) and Nw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Yeah we go back to more of a -PNA look with some ridging into AK southwest to the dateline. But we also get a -NAO to try and help(although I don’t buy it yet). It’s likely an active look, but more riding the line. It’s funny how we refuse to get a classic Niño look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 If we can get the blocking, that’s a good look. That’s the key. If. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah we go back to more of a -PNA look with some ridging into AK southwest to the dateline. But we also get a -NAO to try and help(although I don’t buy it yet). It’s likely an active look, but more riding the line. It’s funny how we refuse to get a classic Niño look. W -NAO help could be fun. Not really holding my breath on that as I said yesterday the next round of capitulation melts have increasing chances when this feb 7-10 onward period Is seen as crap.. but maybe first we see widespread sne storm as vortex lifts out And yes ....it may not go to crap, I’d give it 75/25 of doing so 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: I am down to 2 decades Hope you enjoy every year and more Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: What about woods? We actually have probably 70-80% cover in woods here and maybe 20-25% in open areas. Still ugly but I take the silver linings where I can get them this winter. We did have an obscene amount of qpf as sleet here though. Prob more qpf than NW in your 'hood so that might have helped keep a little more cover. Mostly gone. A lot of ice from the rain that froze yesterday, but little snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Mostly gone. A lot of ice from the rain that froze yesterday, but little snow Yeah gone mostly in Andover too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Mostly gone. A lot of ice from the rain that froze yesterday, but little snow We lost several inches, but a full-coverage, several inch glacier remains. Surprisingly, even the stonewalls managed to keep snow in some areas. Most of the deck (which I had not shoveled) melted--I'll take that as a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Not even a snow bank to be had here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah we go back to more of a -PNA look with some ridging into AK southwest to the dateline. But we also get a -NAO to try and help(although I don’t buy it yet). It’s likely an active look, but more riding the line. It’s funny how we refuse to get a classic Niño look. Why is it when storms show up in the 10-14 day range they rarely work out but when a warm up or cool down shows up in that period, it happens more likely than not? Is it because warm ups and cool downs like that usually cover a much larger percentage of the country so that has a much higher likelihood of verifying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Not even a snow bank to be had here I picked up my daughter in Marion yesterday--not a pretty site. Actually, winter was absent on the bulk of the trip, ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If we can get the blocking, that’s a good look. That’s the key. If. This is actually somewhat (tempered) good news. If we get an unfavorable Pacific but with a -NAO that would mean that warm surge of Pac air would stay confined to the Plains and Midwest? So in the Northeast we could still hold onto air cold enough for it to snow. Basically the favorable Pacific and unfavorable Atlantic would be trading places lol. Do you think it would be a west-based - NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: Why is it when storms show up in the 10-14 day range they rarely work out but when a warm up or cool down shows up in that period, it happens more likely than not? Is it because warm ups and cool downs like that usually cover a much larger percentage of the country so that has a much higher likelihood of verifying? It’s your perspective. If it warms up here it cools down somewhere else. This current cold shot gripping the country was well modeled and trended stronger. Wait until next week. As far as storms go, think about it. You’re hoping to be in the 100 mile wide sweet spot 10-14 days out. Of course that will change. That’s difficult to do. It’s why we always cringe when people are focused on a storm 10 days out. Good luck with that holding. I don’t give any model respect until it’s within 5 days or so. Too much can change and even then, I’ve seen storms appear and vanish inside 3 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: This is actually somewhat (tempered) good news. If we get an unfavorable Pacific but with a -NAO that would mean that warm surge of Pac air would stay confined to the Plains and Midwest? So in the Northeast we could still hold onto air cold enough for it to snow. The blocking would help keep confluence and supply of cold air into the nrn tier. It probably would not be bitter cold, but we don’t need that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: It’s your perspective. If it warms up here it cools down somewhere else. This current cold shot gripping the country was well modeled and trended stronger. Wait until next week. As far as storms go, think about it. You’re hoping to be in the 100 mile wide sweet spot 10-14 days out. Of course that will change. That’s difficult to do. It’s why we always cringe when people are focused on a storm 10 days out. Good luck with that holding. I don’t give any model respect until it’s within 5 days or so. Too much can change and even then, I’ve seen storms appear and vanish inside 3 days. Yes, even 5 days out they're often wrong. The most perplexing outcome though is when a model like the Euro has a storm 10 days out, loses it in the midrange and brings it back within 48 hours lol. I wonder what causes that to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The blocking would help keep confluence and supply of cold air into the nrn tier. It probably would not be bitter cold, but we don’t need that. No we dont, bitter cold could cause suppression! Average cold is good enough Do you think it would be a west based - NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I think any breakdown is going to be transient. Probably will go back to something similar to what we have now by 2/12-2/14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Any decent news on 0z ecmwf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Any decent news on 0z ecmwf We have a storm thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Routing hard for November 15th to be my biggest snow event this season. Makes my life so much easier with having to do snow removal at three locations. We shall see. Also OT , NG started turning gas on in Newport yesterday , with cold coming end of next week it will be a race against time to get all 6800 households turned on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yes, even 5 days out they're often wrong. The most perplexing outcome though is when a model like the Euro has a storm 10 days out, loses it in the midrange and brings it back within 48 hours lol. I wonder what causes that to happen? Well sometimes it’s just that guidance had the right idea originally. Maybe as it gets closer, we have some small changes in the short waves that are modeled and cause the storm to go out to sea. It only takes one or two small changes in modeling to bring that back and voila. That can happen when things are better sampled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: No we dont, bitter cold could cause suppression! Average cold is good enough Do you think it would be a west based - NAO? Looks like it noses into Greenland so Defintely not west based. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Looks like it noses into Greenland so Defintely not west based. How are heights lookin in Davis straits i often hear this area referenced to aid us a Blocking be it -nao or not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well sometimes it’s just that guidance had the right idea originally. Maybe as it gets closer, we have some small changes in the short waves that are modeled and cause the storm to go out to sea. It only takes one or two small changes in modeling to bring that back and voila. That can happen when things are better sampled. Thanks, it seems that it becomes much more clear when the features get on land. Funny thing about the storm last weekend though- it was clear it would mix and even change over on the Euro even before the features came onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think any breakdown is going to be transient. Probably will go back to something similar to what we have now by 2/12-2/14 I see a new shot of Arctic air showing up in the Northern Plains in the LR. But what we have now is cold/dry interrupted by storms when temps spike so hopefully by then the storm track is more favorable for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think any breakdown is going to be transient. Probably will go back to something similar to what we have now by 2/12-2/14 Yeah I could see that. Weeklies have been decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: How are heights lookin in Davis straits i often hear this area referenced to aid us a Blocking be it -nao or not Still a trough there, but Greenland blocking can help push that south and aid in confluence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I could see that. Weeklies have been decent. I’m convinced it’s just some sort of delayed impact of the MJO. By the time we get to 2/10 it’s probably weak 7 or none existent. It could also just be models not wanting to establish this pattern in the long range. I swore that 5 days ago we saw this same thing happen for a few model cycles and then it was gone. I’ve definitely seen patterns where models consistently try to show them breaking down at day 10-15 every 5-10 days and they’re repeatedly wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: I think the coldest wind chill I experienced was -25, I can't imagine -65. Brutal. Coldest for me was in N. Maine, January 1982. Temp -34 and winds 25G35 - don't have WCI table handy, but I think that's in the 65-70 range. My company pickup, a Chevy Luv, had a heater hose engine warmer - much better than the dipstick heater - and though plugged in all night the vehicle still barely started that morning. Oh, it was also SN- with 2 mile visibility from tiny snow grains. Got all the way up to -14 that afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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