CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: My appologies, i phrased that wrong...currently, the PAC is more favorable. My thoughts are for my feelings on a SNE winter moving forward. CNE is still in the game and I feel better about NNE. For SNE, with all the analyzing of the MJO, and AO, and the PNA, and the NAO, and the EPO, SNE needs more than just one to be in a favorable state out of all of them in order to get an acceptable winter... They honestly haven’t been bad. The Pacific overall has been good last few weeks. I’ll take a good Pacific over any other index. That looks to continue. It hasn’t been perfect and hence why some of these hug or cut just west, but man it wouldn’t take much to change that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Yes, the snow still counts. But when we all talk about grading winters, human emotion also plays a part in the final grade. I would be more content for the meat of the winter snows to occur in january/February than be centered around march/april Yea, for personal grading, it matters...Kev is like you in that regard. I don't blame you for being frustrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Meanwhile where they do have a favorable pattern (this video is a kick in the jumblees for sure!). Alps in snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They honestly haven’t been bad. The Pacific overall has been good last few weeks. I’ll take a good Pacific over any other index. That looks to continue. It hasn’t been perfect and hence why some of these hug or cut just west, but man it wouldn’t take much to change that. If you had laid the 12-1 to 1-24 H5 plot in front of me last fall and told me to extrapolate over an entire season, I would have called for like 45-55" in Boston. I think that effectively communicates my thoughts on the pattern so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Glad we don't live here... GFSX MOS (MEX) KHIB GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/24/2019 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 FRI 25| SAT 26| SUN 27| MON 28| TUE 29| WED 30| THU 31|FRI CLIMO N/X -23 -4|-27 3|-25 -4|-20 8|-23 -14|-37 -7|-26 0|-20 -4 19 TMP -20 -10|-21 -4|-22 -8|-14 0|-18 -19|-32 -13|-21 -4|-15 DPT -28 -21|-27 -16|-30 -22|-21 -12|-25 -30|-41 -25|-29 -17|-22 CLD PC PC| PC OV| PC PC| OV OV| OV PC| OV PC| PC PC| PC WND 10 6| 3 8| 7 6| 6 6| 15 15| 16 19| 11 7| 6 P12 1 0| 1 0| 2 1| 12 25| 21 16| 18 15| 9 8| 15999999 P24 1| 1| 3| 28| 32| 26| 19| 999 Q12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| | Q24 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | T12 0 0| 0 0| 1 0| 0 0| 1 0| 0 1| 1 0| 0 T24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 PZP 1 1| 0 1| 1 1| 0 1| 0 1| 0 0| 0 1| 1 PSN 98 99|100 99| 99 98|100 99| 98 98|100 100|100 97| 96 PRS 1 0| 0 0| 1 0| 0 1| 2 1| 0 0| 0 2| 3 TYP S S| S S| S S| S S| S S| S S| S S| S SNW 0| 0| 0| 1| 1| 1| | 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I guess this is probably an unpopular opinion here, but if it's not going to snow, I still want it to be cold. Besides actually enjoying the cold, it helps with the insects, and it prevents my apple tree from pulling a March 2012, starting to wake up, then die in April. There's a pool of warm water around Indonesia. Is that affecting the MJO and its insistence on staying around 4/5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 It is sort of hilarious how the GFS op wants to freeze Chicago at Day 6-7 with -30F but then cuts a rainer over them at day 9. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Next week looks workable. Let’s see how it shakes out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It is sort of hilarious how the GFS op wants to freeze Chicago at Day 6-7 with -30F but then cuts a rainer over them at day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Nice PNA ridge spike on the GEFS after the PV moves out around D10-D11....that could be another opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Nice PNA ridge spike on the GEFS after the PV moves out around D10-D11....that could be another opportunity. Climo peak week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 That PNA look has been growing on the ensembles. Hopefully that hangs around for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Sunday looking nice and snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Sunday looking nice and snowy Enjoy a snow shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Enjoy a snow shower. Nice anafront on guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Enjoy a snow shower. Its funny....because he made it a point to mention that Sunday was a snowy day, I automatically knew not to expect anything. Honest, visceral reaction. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sunday looking nice and snowy elsewhere Looks like a few snow showers north of NH border w maybe an inch in central New England monday is going thru shredder I beleive Wednesday will be a sloppy dusting that goes to a rainy fropa South of CNE , thou we pray for more i believe our legit theat will be when Polar vortex lifts out in ...wait for it ..10 days or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Kev sees .05 over 12 hours at 35 degrees and figures 2 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Kev sees .05 over 12 hours at 35 degrees and figures 2 inches... “Another 1-3” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Looks like a few snow showers north of NH border w maybe an inch in central New England monday is going thru shredder I beleive Wednesday will be a sloppy dusting that goes to a rainy fropa South of CNE , thou we pray for more i believe our legit theat will be when Polar vortex lifts out in ...wait for it ..10 days or so I think we can still score a few inches via SWFE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They honestly haven’t been bad. The Pacific overall has been good last few weeks. I’ll take a good Pacific over any other index. That looks to continue. It hasn’t been perfect and hence why some of these hug or cut just west, but man it wouldn’t take much to change that. Some? All the storms that have been showing up have been cutting and hugging. Need some Miller B's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think we can still score a few inches via SWFE.. Agreed, I just wouldn’t put that over 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 hours ago, weathafella said: Lol..caribou can’t hold a candle to Boston’s snowiest month. Yup, sort of, as CAR's top month is nearly 5" behind 2/15 in the Hub. They'd need 17"+ in the next 7 days to challenge. Noteworthy about 07-08 is that Feb-Mar totaled 93"; would be remarkable if that happened. And 2/15 was even more impressive Downeast - 73.4" at Machias (74" pack on 2/16, 20 feet asl is pretty impressive) and I think EPO got even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Looks like a few snow showers north of NH border w maybe an inch in central New England monday is going thru shredder I beleive Wednesday will be a sloppy dusting that goes to a rainy fropa South of CNE , thou we pray for more i believe our legit theat will be when Polar vortex lifts out in ...wait for it ..10 days or so What are you talking about? Have you not seen the Gefs/nam/00z eps? We miss the old Pickles. Not the Pickles that is old and crotchety from banging grandmothers and seniors 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: What are you talking about? Have you not seen the Gefs/nam/00z eps? We miss the old Pickles. Not the Pickles that is old and crotchety from banging grandmothers and seniors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 22 minutes ago, dendrite said: Enjoy a snow shower. His threshold for "snowy" is far less then mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 This reminds me of just another of those water loaded events we had in December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Euro is close to something big for SNE next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 So the Euro's setting up an overrunning event ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 It's still look like a more favorable pattern beyond the stem-winder Lakes thing... We may yet cash-in on some overrunning in that, too - But the pattern's a better fit for 'winter storms' here thereafter - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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