STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Strange evolution for that storm on the 12 Euro @hr180 I’m long gone for that storm if it’s another Rainer / Vt bound Looking forward to tracking that for 30’model cycles then having it go poof w this fast flow split jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’m long gone for that storm if it’s another Rainer / Vt bound You probably should have done this a couple weeks back, Because you know, That sun angle...................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Day 8 looks like one of those "pattern flipper" type storms lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 19 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said: Judah hanging on for dear life: "However the MJO is expected to trnasition to five and six over the next two weeks. MJO phases 4-6 favors ridging over eastern North America with mild temperatures and troughing over western North America with cold temperatures. It is not obvious to me that the MJO is influencing North American weather. " While I don't speak to his exact motivation for making that statement - assuming he really did ... - my own impressions of the MJO significance arrives me to a similar conclusion. The MJO is just another index in a myriad of them ...Each can be dominate at any given time ...masking the influence of the others because its magnitude/forcing is much bigger... Then, the given index fades ...and some other gets its turn; it then masks influence, and it seems like it's the whole game. All the while, some of these indexes are even effected by the other ...given time dependencies... If the surrounding hemispheric medium is in phase with the MJO ... it will "seem" like the MJO is driving the whole thing... when what it may (most likely...) be doing is only enhancing. Folks should read up on "destructive" vs "constructive" wave interference in physics - it'll help elucidate what this is all about... and perhaps open a door to a deeper understanding of why say ... Phase 8 did A but this time it did X ...and that goes to other Phases ... as well, why NAOs and PNAs and WPOs and all of them are at times more than less seemingly correlated to resulting patterns. All that, which represents the maelstrom of the atmosphere, creates a reality where there are no absolutes. Because a Phase 8 this did that, but didn't do that the next time... and on and so on, the correlations are never 1::1. And in fact, there are no indexes that correlated perfectly with either adjacent indexes, or patterns. ... But some can and do correlated very highly... As far as the MJO in the here-and-now: I see that as almost identical to that which preceded the recent Phase 8... I recall several weeks ago this wave was in Phase 5 and was segmented with similar timing intervals, as well... similar magnitude separated from the COD/inner region. The wave painfully unfurled through Phase 6....then 7... finally 8... I wonder if we're just going to repeat that whole cycling ... regardless of whether it seems to(or not) correlate with patterns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Day 8 EURO has a upper 970s SLP over extreme NW ME lol I'm guessing it didn't take a roundabout route thru the North Atlantic to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Day 8 looks like one of those "pattern flipper" type storms lol. To set up the mega NAO ridge for May lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Day 8 looks like one of those "pattern flipper" type storms lol. Flip the pattern to warm and dry? Where do we sign up?? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: Flip the pattern to warm and dry? Where do we sign up?? I meant to a negative nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: I meant to a negative nao. I was joking...just sick of cold & wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Tip is a man with more time than any adult working I know.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I like those too... those moments when your in a kind of "nook" that's cozy. It's an autumn and spring phenomenon. Sometimes on that rare April day when April isn't being the more typical asshole, I like those faux mild moments like that. Those moments that actually cause Keven pain ... thank god! But uh, we get that in October sometimes going the other way. An early chilly air mass in a calm wind over saffron leaf fall with still relative sun warmth has its splendor. Sounds like one of those days you’re playing disc golf with the fellas in the woods 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Euro went from OTS last night to a screaming sou Easter with rains to Canadians . All in the realm of possibilities. Certainly not a dry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Um that's next week as I said Surprise snow this Friday? I think between 27th and 31st we had 6 inches to a foot of snow to our totals Surprise snow Friday? TK .. that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Watch the area get 30-40" in March again. Our new winter month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sounds like one of those days you’re playing disc golf with the fellas in the woods Is there clothing involved? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro went from OTS last night to a screaming sou Easter with rains to Canadians . All in the realm of possibilities. Certainly not a dry pattern. The EPS will probably be in between, which should be decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is there clothing involved? Probably not necessary with the warm late January sun angle tanning the napes! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is there clothing involved? Just club and balls I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, HimoorWx said: Probably not necessary with the warm late January sun angle tanning the napes! He emailed a met friend...lets call him "Harv".. about these forbidden nape games amidst growing boreal irradiance....some of the content even grew quite erotic and explicit... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just club and balls I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 That’s a notch up on the funny list...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 Know what's gonna be awesome ... ... I was just noticing that it is January 22. 22! I can't believe it's been 22 days since New Year's eve... Then I got to thinking, that kind of zoomed time experience is going to happen (of course...) moving forward, and it'll be almost the ides of February. And thank god ... it'll almost be over - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: No what's gonna be awesome ... ... I was just noticing that it is January 22. 22! I can't believe it's been 22 days since New Year's eve... Then I got to thinking, that kind of zoomed time experience is going to happen (of course...) moving forward, and it'll be almost the ides of February. Thank god ... it's almost over - We just passed the climo coldest day of the year up here. Everything is uphill from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: We just passed the climo coldest day of the year up here. Everything is uphill from here. Actually, no...snowfall climo has not peaked. It won't for about two more weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 EPS looks decent for next week per Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: EPS looks decent for next week per Will. AWT. Him and Scoots stepped away for this next rainer to Mainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: AWT. Him and Scoots stepped away for this next rainer to Mainer. Not much to talk about amidst the whining. The D8-9 threat could look totally different in a couple days. I'd say we shouldn't sleep on Sunday either. There's a chance with that shortwave, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Not much to talk about amidst the whining. The D8-9 threat could look totally different in a couple days. I'd say we shouldn't sleep on Sunday either. There's a chance with that shortwave, Thought that too. Has a tasty look if we can amplify things just a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Not much to talk about amidst the whining. The D8-9 threat could look totally different in a couple days. I'd say we shouldn't sleep on Sunday either. There's a chance with that shortwave, Any chance of Ginxs sneaky snow Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not much to talk about amidst the whining. The D8-9 threat could look totally different in a couple days. I'd say we shouldn't sleep on Sunday either. There's a chance with that shortwave, Yeah but this is when it's wicked fun to poke the hornets nest ... So readable... transparent really, and endless tormented fun. Seriously the EPS looking suspiciously Miller B -ish for D7/8... It's interesting because there's been operational contention for more of a Miller A... yet the EPS ops for more N-stream. And by the way, this is the closer manifestation of that whopper amplitude the models were putting up in their extended from 3 or 4 days ago. I think there's a still an important signal in that time frame but we don't really know what is going to come of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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