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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip
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Man, EPS is bombs away for a great pattern going forward....we just need to dodge one bullet around Jan 24-25. Hopefully that one stays south of us...but there's a risk of it ending up warm as the PAC reshuffles the ridge position a bit and we don't have NAO blocking yet.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Man, EPS is bombs away for a great pattern going forward....we just need to dodge one bullet around Jan 24-25. Hopefully that one stays south of us...but there's a risk of it ending up warm as the PAC reshuffles the ridge position a bit and we don't have NAO blocking yet.

That'll be the the ice storm

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That'll be the the ice storm

You know, that def has some things going for it for the ice storm construction...kind of "ridgy" looking aloft, but you have the left-behind antecedent cold airmass....there's some high pressure to the north, so if that can get anchored just a bit, then there we go.

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13 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I may be off here... But, I have a lot of experience over decades at this point with observing modeling, versus subsequently what tends to happen ... just from a 50,000 foot perspective.   I could delve into a lot of complex terminology and so forth but the bottom line is, positively tilted waves (which I believe this is destined to correct more toward  do to the compression/velocity saturation of the total super-synoptic scale hemisphere) tend not to bring along giant realization of QPF numbers. 

Maybe this will be the exception? Okay... exceptions occur at all scales and dimensions of weather-reality.  But excluding the rarefied result for a moment ... I suspect the next correction, after the models stop trying to tunnel through the arctic air the way they have been... will be to cut the QPF down by 1/3 to 1/2" ...  

Part of the problem with conceding to denser BL resistance and displacing of the lower tropospheric frontal topography (in the vertical mind us) is that sloping and repositioning south means that we are reducing kinematics for lift ... tending to spread it out into a light field ... with less in the way of stronger/focused frontogenic axis.  Thing is, we can also get a decent IB snow plume too.. but even that is limited in amounts by an obliqueness in the atmosphere.  

So I probably managed to sound esoteric anyway... oh well..  But I see this as just trending toward a middling snow event with sleet and mix/ZR more narrow than the previous solutions that tried to fist the high pressure/CAD using flat-wave mechanics during a compression flow.   I've almost never seen that happen... 

Having said that...there is a chance this comes in more amplified and entices the N stream to buckle up more... but I foresee that as a lower probability total result from this range do to the delicate precision required to time the intermingling mechanics in a fast flow.  That's something the models almost never get right from this range, either. 

The 2013 "ice storm" for the GYX area was a situation where you had stout CAD and a surface front well to the south, but the mid level warm front blew through the area and so neither provided a single deep forcing for ascent. Now the mid level front in this case is unlikely to blast through, but if the surface front is displaced far enough you could see a similar situation.

13 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Having lived in SE MA most of my life, I don't have much experience with significant icing events (not saying 1 is going to occur Sunday...maybe), but do you have any examples of sig ice for southern regions of your CWA?

December 2008 and January 1998 are probably the two best recent examples for the southern GYX CWA. 

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14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

A lot of the CNE sites (here's VSF for example) has the best lift below the snow growth zone.  It does punch through in a good tail end burst though. 

I'll say better below than above. 

Right in the heart of it is obviously the best, but if it's below at least there's a hope it will extend upwards and tickle the DGZ.

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22 hours ago, Temp430 said:

Henry Margusity said yesterday in his blog that he likes the ICON solution posted below.  The system cuts across the Appalachians in West Virginia and strengthens off the coast to paraphrase.    Not sure of the reasoning behind that.

 

393250002_ICON2019011518z.thumb.png.3156b07009294d6fefee8c045a58edc9.png

Wild guess is because he lives smack dab in the green 20” area here on the map in PA ;)

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The end of this 00z Euro run ...oh god - that compression is killin' me.. 

What a missed scenario - just relax that insane gradient between the south of JB and the Gulf and you get some kind of exotic history to be made there.. 

:lol: Thankfully its just a day 10 OP.

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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The tellies look so meh to me. Not much of a -NAO, AO is less negative than a few days ago, PNA is okay, MJO is not very favorable on the plot above. The Euro one looks a lot better.

It certainly doesn't scream big time snowy pattern.

The governmental appropriations shut-down has truncated the monitoring sources for last months SSW ... so, it's been almost a blind affair...  Been monitoring the AO and for about 10 days, it's been descending ... but now it is mop-ending and showing some break-down ... 

What all that means is that the SSW's effect on the AO may not be as big as the ambit thought it might ... but ... these outlooks are subject to change, too so... just something to monitor as far as the polarward indices go 

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12 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

The 2013 "ice storm" for the GYX area was a situation where you had stout CAD and a surface front well to the south, but the mid level warm front blew through the area and so neither provided a single deep forcing for ascent. Now the mid level front in this case is unlikely to blast through, but if the surface front is displaced far enough you could see a similar situation.

December 2008 and January 1998 are probably the two best recent examples for the southern GYX CWA. 

Dec. 2008 remains puzzling to me.  Total precip, rates, and surface temps at my place looked awfully similar to those in ORH, but we got just 0.2-0.3" accretion.  Not complaining - 1998 was more than enough ice storm for me - just wondering.  Cold layer too thin?  Warmer midlevels?  Poor northerly flow?

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Fwiw ventrice and Cohen are pimping February hard. Article in the globe paints a winter wonderland image.

  If Judah is wrong will Harvey have him on again next November? ( he will )

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2019/01/16/the-polar-vortex-has-fractured-and-eastern-faces-punishing-winter/jrlhdAzeBKtcvY0d91gSOI/story.html

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This 12z Euro run is infuriating to winter enthusiasm... 

It's got this huge meridional flow structure and manages to turbid the cold toward spring or something...   I mean, it's like ECMWF, Inc...  parameterized the whole run with asshole variables from start to finish.

 haha

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34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This 12z Euro run is infuriating to winter enthusiasm... 

It's got this huge meridional flow structure and manages to turbid the cold toward spring or something...   I mean, it's like ECMWF, Inc...  parameterized the whole run with asshole variables from start to finish.

 haha

Don’t you think next weeks storm ends up colder vs these calls of torching cutter? Too much pressing cold and hP

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t you think next weeks storm ends up colder vs these calls of torching cutter? Too much pressing cold and hP

High pressure is sliding offshore...it's not an ideal setup for keeping it cold. There is some semblance trying to hang back to our north on the ensembles, but it is probably only a few members showing it. It needs a lot of work. 

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