Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Brutal day Monday, let’s hope no one loses power. Before you comment Kev, think of the Elderly/ Single Moms with kids stuck in a home with no power. With these wind chills, yes it effects homes blowing the heat out. Let’s all hope for an all snow event as this with no hype is a particularly dangerous situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Pump the brakes on ratios with warm conveyor snows. Yeah warm mid-level temps where the lift is greatest. Probably won't be seeing -12C to -18C omega overlap in that zone. I see 7F baking soda more likely. Though honestly, give me 6-12" and I'd sign on the line right now...with good pack in place, just 8" will look deep winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Pump the brakes on ratios with warm conveyor snows. Nah, exceptionally cold with tremendous omega, as with thought you will sit back with 20 inches plus. You can quickly get half a foot in the CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah warm mid-level temps where the lift is greatest. Probably won't be seeing -12C to -18C omega overlap in that zone. I see 7F baking soda more likely. Though honestly, give me 6-12" and I'd sign on the line right now...with good pack in place, just 8" will look deep winter. Your warmest layer at 7 h is -12. You will downplay yourself to 18 plus as currently modeled 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Nah, exceptionally cold with tremendous omega, as with thought you will sit back with 20 inches plus. You can quickly get half a foot in the CCB A lot of the CNE sites (here's VSF for example) has the best lift below the snow growth zone. It does punch through in a good tail end burst though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Mid levels torch more east. Let me know how that works out. I’ll put a hundie that Coney Island ain’t colder than Danbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Your warmest layer at 7 h is -12. You will downplay yourself to 18 plus as currently modeled I just want to get it right. Maybe this is the one event but usually with warmth moving in aloft it's a higher ratio snow. 10-13:1. MPV is the closet coolwx site and it also has the lift in a donut hole under the snow growth. I'm just trying to look at the soundings and make a decent guess, not downplaying or upplaying lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Im skeptical of 2"+ qpf amounts except right near and just south of the lower level WF where some convection would aid things. But we'll see as we get closer. Yep...agreed. Guidance will rachet that down over like the final 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No still one foot on ledge for fear of NW trends. Just noting the high. All accelerator .. no brakes . Brakes are out. Cold press coming and not done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yep...agreed I think you and I have had very similar thoughts on this one for a few days. I look forward to your storm forecast whenever that comes out in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro waaay east....weeeeee We need an "I told you so" emoji. We need to be careful ... it's possible that, although our arguments against the west solutions were certainly valid/justifiable ... scientifically rooted concerns ... (summarily ignored so that people coudl do their paranoid neurosis act as usual ) these runs could also be based upon sampling/data sparseness. It's probably fine ... Unless the whole scale flow above the 45th parallel from British Columbia to NF changes construction... I see a track from Pittsburgh to Albany through Concord, NH axis as nearly impossible and always was the case... A final nail on that limitation hammered in by the fact that regardless of west or east tracks ... all guidance types have maintained a +PP (significant imbalance at that) situated/draped from N of Lake Superior to N of Maine... That initial circumstance, to add, a featuring that remains nearly static during the system erosion attempt ... made such a track with all of a 993 mh surface low so physically impossible it makes one wonder what kind of physics they're actually running in these god damn tools. It's very difficult to phase streams in a fast flow/compression super-synoptic set up/evolution. It can happen, but the stream timing has to be very precise ... skill not possessed even by the Euro beyond D5 ...which is a spatial-temporality we've been dealing with all along up to this point. Anyway, point is...since the possibility for more SPV morphology and isohypsic torquing is not technically 0 ... We really need to see all of this at a mimimum of D4.5 ... By then, at least one modeling tool will be entering a fantastic performance curve, and others should/would be well on their way ... Namely, should the southern component come off the Pacific/and/or suddenly get sampled/assimilated as a stronger entity...we risk going to go through the west annoying cycle(s) all over again. Why? ... A stronger southern stream wave would ripple out a S/W ridge ahead of it... even if not really observable in the curvature plain of the geopotential medium.. the force is there... Once that gets E of mean L/W axis over SE Canada (which precedes the southern stream passage by a day ...day and a half) ...that is instantiation of phasing and the high speed timing attempt comes back into play. I really need a white board to illustrate this ... but hopefully some of this can be visualized. I give all that 20% chance... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: A lot of the CNE sites (here's VSF for example) has the best lift below the snow growth zone. It does punch through in a good tail end burst though. Looks great for a CCB burst which can lay 6 in 2 hrs. Guess we will see. Today I could easily see from Dendrite to you 18 to 24 after it’s all done. There are 6 hr panels with snow up there until Tuesday. I do ignore GFS thermals at all costs especially those O meh a charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 06z EPS basically the same as 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Doesn’t seem like a big change on the mean overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Pretty safe to fire up a storm specific thread at this point. Perfect time with 12z runs firing up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 hours ago, OceanStWx said: This is a tough forecast. It's still pretty far out there, but it was a pretty significant shift colder by the 00z guidance. With the tools at my disposal that creates a whiplash forecast to significant snow, at the risk that things trend back slightly warmer with future runs. So I had to artificially blend in the 18z GFS to warm things up and provide a step down but more gradual that solely blending the previous forecast with 00z. I may be off here... But, I have a lot of experience over decades at this point with observing modeling, versus subsequently what tends to happen ... just from a 50,000 foot perspective. I could delve into a lot of complex terminology and so forth but the bottom line is, positively tilted waves (which I believe this is destined to correct more toward do to the compression/velocity saturation of the total super-synoptic scale hemisphere) tend not to bring along giant realization of QPF numbers. Maybe this will be the exception? Okay... exceptions occur at all scales and dimensions of weather-reality. But excluding the rarefied result for a moment ... I suspect the next correction, after the models stop trying to tunnel through the arctic air the way they have been... will be to cut the QPF down by 1/3 to 1/2" ... Part of the problem with conceding to denser BL resistance and displacing of the lower tropospheric frontal topography (in the vertical mind us) is that sloping and repositioning south means that we are reducing kinematics for lift ... tending to spread it out into a light field ... with less in the way of stronger/focused frontogenic axis. Thing is, we can also get a decent IB snow plume too.. but even that is limited in amounts by an obliqueness in the atmosphere. So I probably managed to sound esoteric anyway... oh well.. But I see this as just trending toward a middling snow event with sleet and mix/ZR more narrow than the previous solutions that tried to fist the high pressure/CAD using flat-wave mechanics during a compression flow. I've almost never seen that happen... Having said that...there is a chance this comes in more amplified and entices the N stream to buckle up more... but I foresee that as a lower probability total result from this range do to the delicate precision required to time the intermingling mechanics in a fast flow. That's something the models almost never get right from this range, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 11 hours ago, dryslot said: This probably will trend more towards snow/sleet as models pick up on the CAD, Would not be surprised if we see some of the models hold serve or start seeing some tics SE with the slp track coming up even at 00z Prophetic 6 hours ago, OceanStWx said: If the high remains in that position, you take the under on modeled temps right now. Your area of cold in the sounding would definitely outweigh the area of warmth = sleet. But a threat of a period of freezing rain would definitely be on the leading edge of the cold tuck as it undercuts the warm air aloft. Near the coast from like NE MA northward could also see a period of freezing rain (verbatim) because we shouldn't see temps warm above freezing (for reason stated above) but have a little warmth aloft near 925. Having lived in SE MA most of my life, I don't have much experience with significant icing events (not saying 1 is going to occur Sunday...maybe), but do you have any examples of sig ice for southern regions of your CWA? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I may be off here... But, I have a lot of experience over decades at this point with observing modeling and what tends to happen ... just from a 50,000 foot perspective. I could delve into a lot of complex terminology and so forth but the bottom line is, positively tilted waves (which I believe this is destined to correct more toward do to the compression/velocity saturation of the total super-synoptic scale hemisphere) tend not to bring along giant realization of QPF numbers. Maybe this will be the exception? Okay... exceptions occur at all scales and dimensions of weather-reality. But excluding the rarefied result for a moment ... I suspect the next correction, after the models stop trying to tunnel through the arctic air the way they have been... will be to cut the QPF down by 1/3 to 1/2" ... Part of the problem with conceding to denser BL resistance and displacing of the lower tropospheric frontal topography (in the vertical mind us) is that sloping and repositioning south means that we are reducing kinematics for lift ... tending to spread it out into a light field ... with less in the way of stronger/focused frontogenic axis. Thing is, we can also get a decent IB snow plume too.. but even that is limited in amounts by an obliqueness in the atmosphere. So I probably managed to sound esoteric anyway... oh well.. But I see this has just trending toward a middling snow event with sleet and mix/ZR more narrow than the previous solutions that tried to fist the high pressure/CAD using flat-wave mechanics during a compression flow. I've almost never seen that happen... So you think after day after day over the last few days of QPF totals between one and a half and 2 inches is actually going to reduce itself to a middling snow event? What is a mid links no event to you? To me that would be below 6 inches. You know way more than me but that seems unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z EPS basically the same as 00z. still pretty wet.. would the EPS start to show a decrease in QPF first or OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: So you think after day after day over the last few days of QPF totals between one and a half and 2 inches is actually going to reduce itself to a middling snow event? What is a mid links no event to you? To me that would be below 6 inches. You know way more than me but that seems unlikely It all reminds me of an amped version of the famed, "Snow Bowl Game" - Patriots vs Raiders back in 2001. If the compression overall forces the positive rotation of the trough axis (admittedly more speculative than the following ...) while the cold should win out and force things S given all... than this corrects - regardless of "days and days and days" that's not as meaningful when knowing that fast/compression biased flow types cause bigger errors out in time...and, considering that the governing mechanics are still over the open Pacific. The days and days aspect is merely because humans have created a tool that goes out that far. Doesn't really mean much beyond that - But, I'm not speaking or intending any sort of absolutes here... I'm making valid conjecture for folks to consider ... because no one can say anything I've brought up can't come of all this... Hell, we could see a powerful S/stream system still end up S and now we have a fast moving coastal bomb. Not impossible either... But of all, I do see the ALB-CON-Coastal Maine cyclone egress as unlikely without a low probability realization of major phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 33 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: 2.1 for the city. Come on we’ll get half that Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: 2.1 for the city. Come on we’ll get half that Friday. That's just about what the UK shows. Only the Euro really depicts more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Looks great for a CCB burst which can lay 6 in 2 hrs. Guess we will see. Today I could easily see from Dendrite to you 18 to 24 after it’s all done. There are 6 hr panels with snow up there until Tuesday. I do ignore GFS thermals at all costs especially those O meh a charts Hey you know I hope you are right Ginxy. Still good wiggle room up here to get this further south into SNE, I do want the majority on the board to end this with snow cover and Wintry vibes, even if it's 3" of sleet. I'd sign for 6-12" and have it get south into CT/RI latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: 2.1 for the city. Come on we’ll get half that Friday. That's why it says Saturday-Monday. Not Friday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 49 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: a foot in boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Hey you know I hope you are right Ginxy. Still good wiggle room up here to get this further south into SNE, I do want the majority on the board to end this with snow cover and Wintry vibes, even if it's 3" of sleet. I'd sign for 6-12" and have it get south into CT/RI latitude. I’ll sign for 0” so resorts can get 24”. It’s better to give then receive, more fulfilling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’ll sign for 0” so resorts can get 24”. It’s better to give then receive, more fulfilling. Paying it forward? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: a foot in boston? It’s all preliminary, don’t take anything to seriously yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 50th percentile of all EPS members. Very wet for a 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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