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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip
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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, And a few tics SE and its a lock.

This is a good example of why the Ensembles are the way to go.  The OP runs have everyone swinging from the rafters or swinging for the fences.  If you look at like the last dozen EPS and GEFS runs, there really hasn't been a huge shift.  Maybe 50 miles north in like 3 days on the snow maps?  Tuck it back south 25 miles and it's literally not far from what it looked like at Day 8-9.  

They have expanded northward into Canada more than that but the southern end of the big snow maps has gone from like N/C CT to RT 2, and now it's slinking south a bit again.  

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Just now, powderfreak said:

This is a good example of why the Ensembles are the way to go.  The OP runs have everyone swinging from the rafters or swinging for the fences.  If you look at like the last dozen EPS and GEFS runs, there really hasn't been a huge shift.  Maybe 50 miles north in like 3 days on the snow maps?  Tuck it back south 25 miles and it's literally not far from what it looked like at Day 8-9.

They have been pretty steady, I would find it hard to think we would see any drastic shifts at this point but some more tics.

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