TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 21 minutes ago, dryslot said: The only answer you'll need to answer is how much just like the rest of this winter has been up and over there. Pretty much. I saw how much Stowe has seen this year and it’s absolutely insanity relative to the rest of NE. Seems like it’s snowing nightly there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah nrly drain there. Certainly could see that. I mean it's also tough to get a low to cut through the Berkshires/Albany. It can happen but you've gotta favor Jersey Shore/Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I think you're right. We'll see how the upper levels shake out - if we get the earlier phase or not. Obviously with the cold to the north there's quite a risk for some big time icing. I am prepping Thursday if this holds. All too familiar from 1994 down in SRI. Right out of the textbook. Just need to see where this sets up. Right now lol I go from from 56 to 20 in a friggin flash. Hopefully it goes to a sleet storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: Valley may be more at risk. ECMWF has the classic valley wedge look. Not bad for a global model 5 days out! True. I usually default to like 950mb being the coldest as often the wedges seem to have a slight warm up in the very lowest levels with the hills locked in coldest. But with such a cold low level air mass it could be right at the SFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Oh yeah for sure...with the location of the high (more N and NW, and not NE)...I think you'd prob have a hard time getting above freezing anywhere too far inland from HVN....I'd be surprised if we don't see some mesolows tracking to our south/southeast in the current model look of a fairly amped system. Yup. That's the way these things tend to go... unless of course we phase too early and then all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, H2Otown_WX said: I thought high rates would cause too much latent heat release and minimize accretion? Looks like heavy rates on the Euro anyway. You have a fresh arctic dewpoint feed that will offset latent heat in this case....that's what happened in ORH in Dec 2008 despite extreme heavy rates at marginal 30-31F temps. The dewpoint feed offset it and kept accretion from slowing down too much. The heavy rates themselves will cause a lot of runoff, so you'll lose some QPF to that, but you would still get exceptional icing with that setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 17 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Funny thing is that as this turns into a bust I am not getting as triggered as I could have been. No meltdown...No death by snowblower. Once a fighter has been beaten down repetitively he gets used to it. Sure, there's a bit of shock but after a quick adjustment the beatings feel natural. Eventually he learns to stay down and take the KO, which will most likely happen sooner than later. How can it turn into a bust 5 days out? A bust would be if the day before it was a snowstorm then this happened 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Kind of reminds me of a system later in January 1994. The day started subzero. Spoke to near 50 with several inches of snow on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Pretty much. I saw how much Stowe has seen this year and it’s absolutely insanity relative to the rest of NE. Seems like it’s snowing nightly there When one sees that they think that all of NNE has had a great winter so far, Which is not the case for some of the areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Valley may be more at risk. ECMWF has the classic valley wedge look. Not bad for a global model 5 days out! For those in NE CT, we pray this verifies. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You have a fresh arctic dewpoint feed that will offset latent heat in this case....that's what happened in ORH in Dec 2008 despite extreme heavy rates at marginal 30-31F temps. The dewpoint feed offset it and kept accretion from slowing down too much. The heavy rates themselves will cause a lot of runoff, so you'll lose some QPF to that, but you would still get exceptional icing with that setup. Okay, that makes sense. I remember seeing the icing on the trees in December '08 when I went up to the Worcester area for a basketball tournament. I couldn't believe how bad it was. I really hope you're right that thisends up being more a snow/sleet scenario. Would you guess that even though the Euro is picking up on the valley CAD, it's underdone? As in sfc temps. will probably be lower than it's showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: For those in NE CT, we pray this verifies. I'd pay 20 bucks for that evolution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 18 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That actually seems to be exactly what the models are showing right now. Just disengage the boy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Kind of reminds me of a system later in January 1994. The day started subzero. Spoke to near 50 with several inches of snow on the back end. You're thinking of Jan 17-18, 1994....this one will have a much better high than that event. I got stuck on rt 2 on a bus on the way back from a school ski trip to Mt Snow...went from dumping snow to epic icing along Rt 2 and a bumper to bumper traffic jam at 6-7pm at night. We didn't get back to ORH until 10pm. But that one had a frigid but retreatign arctic high going away from us over Nova Scotia...low tracked almost over our heads in ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yup that's what I'd say too. Higher terrain in CT where Kev is located? If this storm happened tomorrow the guy is without power for days. Your lips to the man aboves ears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said: Okay, that makes sense. I remember seeing the icing on the trees in December '08 when I went up to the Worcester area for a basketball tournament. I couldn't believe how bad it was. I really hope you're right that thisends up being more a snow/sleet scenario. Would you guess that even though the Euro is picking up on the valley CAD, it's underdone? As in sfc temps. will probably be lower than it's showing? Yeah I'd def cut the modeled temps at the surface if we were forecasting a day or two out with this look...right now, it doesn't matter too much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: For those in NE CT, we pray this verifies. Post the next frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Post the next frame 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I'd pay 20 bucks for that evolution. I don’t want freezing rain, but 52F? Bleh ideally just switch me to sleet for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: Kind of reminds me of a system later in January 1994. The day started subzero. Spoke to near 50 with several inches of snow on the back end. January 28, 1994 perhaps. Burlington went from -28 on the 27th to 47 on the 28 and back to a high of 9 on the 30th. https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=btv 1994-01-15 7 -14 -3.5 -21.8 68 0 T T 15 1994-01-16 -5 -18 -11.5 -29.7 76 0 T T 14 1994-01-17 28 -5 11.5 -6.7 53 0 0.29 5.6 14 1994-01-18 24 -4 10.0 -8.2 55 0 0.05 0.6 19 1994-01-19 3 -17 -7.0 -25.2 72 0 0.00 0.0 16 1994-01-20 7 -6 0.5 -17.7 64 0 T T 16 1994-01-21 13 -1 6.0 -12.2 59 0 T T 15 1994-01-22 17 -2 7.5 -10.7 57 0 0.02 1.0 15 1994-01-23 20 -13 3.5 -14.7 61 0 0.10 2.5 16 1994-01-24 31 17 24.0 5.7 41 0 0.02 0.5 16 1994-01-25 17 0 8.5 -9.8 56 0 T T 15 1994-01-26 0 -25 -12.5 -30.9 77 0 0.00 0.0 13 1994-01-27 15 -29 -7.0 -25.5 72 0 T 0.1 13 1994-01-28 47 14 30.5 12.0 34 0 0.31 0.6 14 1994-01-29 44 9 26.5 7.9 38 0 0.01 0.1 12 1994-01-30 9 -8 0.5 -18.2 64 0 T 0.1 11 1994-01-31 10 -13 -1.5 -20.3 66 0 0.00 0.0 11 I remember watching the 6 pm news with a temp of -27 at the time calling for rain the next day and thinking "well that can't be right." I was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Great news thanks, fuking PF will be well over 200 inches soon geezus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 37 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I think you're right. We'll see how the upper levels shake out - if we get the earlier phase or not. Obviously with the cold to the north there's quite a risk for some big time icing. I just want to know if I need to buy a generator for this....moved up here late 2014 and haven't needed one yet. Neighbors tell me my are doesnt do well with ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Spanks45 said: I just want to know if I need to buy a generator for this....moved up here late 2014 and haven't needed one yet. Neighbors tell me my are doesnt do well with ice... Get it, at least rent one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Great news thanks, fuking PF will be well over 200 inches soon geezus 7" of snow, then we ping and glaze...sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 7" of snow, then we ping and glaze...sweet. Must be nice. I've already said 12 hail Queens Elizabeth's here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 7" of snow, then we ping and glaze...sweet. We? No speak French. Lol at that solution here. First system is squashed might be a UKMET win after all who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I am very worried about ice and then bitter cold on Monday, that could be horrific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 It’s quite obvious we ICON. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 From GYX: On Sunday, all deterministic and ensemble models within the 12Z model suite begin to shift the storm northeastward towards southern New England. Models have trended towards a warmer solution aloft, allowing for the snow to change to sleet and possibly freezing rain over southern areas during the day. Temperatures at the surface should remain below freezing over southern areas which could potentially allow for a relatively thick layer of ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Great news thanks, fuking PF will be well over 200 inches soon geezus Would pay for that to verify but I think Euro trends SE next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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