Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip
 Share

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

True, everyone knows what a Day 5 bullseye looks like when dealing with energy and PV up in the data rich area of northern Canada.

You want to disappoint people?  Tell them they are getting 16-24" 5 days in advance.  It often works out well in the end as those types of SWFE are a dime a dozen, lol.

A warning snow is fine ding dong . Only an idiot looks at bullseye and takes numbers seriously, but you know that .That bullseye is best shot for warning

what spot has a better shot for warning snow than the bullseye 4.5-5 days out ....

Don’t let the social media whores get the better of your common sense and see things thru some weenie map perspective 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I said the mean was SE of 06z but it was more CAdish than 00z...but the mean was still slightly west of 00z. But CAD shows up better now than 00z. This is goinbg to be the trend assuming no huge upper air changes...which is a caveat. But expect the CAD to trend stronger in this setup

 

The left side is 12z EPS and the right side is 00z...you can clearly see the better CAD sig on the left side despite a mean primary low a touch west.

 

 

Jan15_EPS_compare.png

It was clear in Op run as well as I slowly scrolled through frame by frame as it came out I initially thought the system was going to be 150 miles south of the 00Z run based on how things look at 84-9 0

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

What an appropriate analogy, on this, the hundredth anniversary of the most interesting disaster ever.

A few years back I read a book about that event - as usual it was a series of bad decisions that combined to kill 20+ and injure over 100.  That industrial molasses was like blackstrap times 10 - some of the injured had limbs ripped off.

Back on topic - this far north the issue will likely be qpf, unless something really weird happens.  Could be so cold upstairs and down that dendrites are wretched and we get 7:1 flour at 5°.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

A warning snow is fine ding dong . Only an idiot looks at bullseye and takes numbers seriously, but you know that .That bullseye is best shot for warning

what spot has a better shot for warning snow than the bullseye 4.5-5 days out ....

Don’t let the social media whores get the better of your common sense 

Ha then you missed the point of my post.  Places are already hyping 18-24" type snows for this weekend in Ski Country.  That's what got me tweaked. 

We seem to be talking about two different things.  6-12"?  Sure seems like a better bet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha then you missed the point of my post.  Places are already hyping 18-24" type snows for this weekend in Ski Country.  That's what got me tweaked. 

We seem to be talking about two different things.  6-12"?  Sure seems like a better bet.

Yes that is very stupid and just the way social media is. Hype drives sales and gets looks , clicks , attention.

but earlier you said why would you want to be in the bullseye 5 days out when it moves around 

I was saying granted it moves around but , only a fool would anticipate the bullseye amount 5 days out , seems many here do that instead of just saying , statistically I have the best shot at warning snows as I have wiggle room north and south , that was my point 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

VD?  This storm reminds me of the VD storm many years ago where the dacks picked up 40 inches of synoptic snow.  I think Gore had over 40 inches and this wasn't powder.  It was loaded with QPF (over 2 inches worth).  Euro prints 30-40 inches from the finger lakes to NNE.  Was over 30 inches for Ithaca....

I’m pretty sure it was also the Valentines Day storm that hammered Jay Peak with over 70” of snow. If I recall correctly, about half of that was from the backend upslope machine. On their pic of the day, had a guy doing a jump off the roof of one of the base lodge buildings. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha then you missed the point of my post.  Places are already hyping 18-24" type snows for this weekend in Ski Country.  That's what got me tweaked. 

We seem to be talking about two different things.  6-12"?  Sure seems like a better bet.

The only answer you'll need to answer is how much just like the rest of this winter has been up and over there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

....only 17 more runs of the GFS to dissect till go time......

Funny thing is that as this turns into a bust I am not getting as triggered as I could have been.  No meltdown...No death by snowblower. Once a fighter has been beaten down repetitively he gets used to it.  Sure, there's a bit of shock but after a quick adjustment the beatings feel natural.  Eventually he learns to stay down and take the KO, which will most likely happen sooner than later.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The hype is already driving me mad in Ski Country.  The various associations like Ski Vermont, NH Tourism, etc and the individual ski resorts are already starting to talk about "foot and a half, two feet!" type stuff.  It's 5 days out.  There are big differences in Friday's light event, and if the models can't figure that out how the hell will they figure out Sunday?

I know its a holiday weekend for the ski areas but man this hype is going to get unreal.  I hate that part of me wishes something happens so those who take to social media early and PR departments learn not to promise people stuff 5 days out.

It's just business. They start early so people make plans to come up, and if they don't get 2 feet from the storm, they blame the wxmen but still make money. Most people have no idea how fickle the models are, especially 5 days out. But it's good for business. Really can't blame them I guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

That actually seems to be exactly what the models are showing right now.

Yeah, I'd actually say N and C CT might be in the highest risk for siggy ice...a lot of MA would get more snow/sleet if this trended just a shade south.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, I'd actually say N and C CT might be in the highest risk for siggy ice...a lot of MA would get more snow/sleet if this trended just a shade south.

I think you're right. We'll see how the upper levels shake out - if we get the earlier phase or not. Obviously with the cold to the north there's quite a risk for some big time icing. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

That actually seems to be exactly what the models are showing right now.

I don't know...the GFS showed nothing of the sort at 12z...but we know how bad the GFS is.  The guy has been begging for an ice storm forever....so of course he sees it that way.  We'll see??  Maybe it comes to fruition???  But there's still a lot of time to go.  I'll believe the siggy ice if it's showing it still come Friday....this thing is still trending. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, I'd actually say N and C CT might be in the highest risk for siggy ice...a lot of MA would get more snow/sleet if this trended just a shade south.

Yup that's what I'd say too.  Higher terrain in CT where Kev is located?  If this storm happened tomorrow the guy is without power for days.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I don't know...the GFS showed nothing of the sort at 12z...but we know how bad the GFS is.  The guy has been begging for an ice storm forever....so of course he sees it that way.  We'll see??  Maybe it comes to fruition???  But there's still a lot of time to go.  I'll believe the siggy ice if it's showing it still come Friday....this thing is still trending. 

siggy ice?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, CT Rain said:

I think you're right. We'll see how the upper levels shake out - if we get the earlier phase or not. Obviously with the cold to the north there's quite a risk for some big time icing. 

There's still a big part of me that thinks a lot more sleet (and snow) than ice given the type of airmass we are dealing with and I think models may show that as we get closer....but if we keep the shortwave fairly amplified, then icing def becomes a big concern and it could be pretty bad in a swath where the big big QPF is butting up against that intense CAD at the sfc.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

There's still a big part of me that thinks a lot more sleet (and snow) than ice given the type of airmass we are dealing with and I think models may show that as we get closer....but if we keep the shortwave fairly amplified, then icing def becomes a big concern and it could be pretty bad in a swath where the big big QPF is butting up against that intense CAD at the sfc.

It certainly has that ice look. As always the worst area is pretty narrow as sleet generally becomes predominant.

Even a surface low in Long Island Sound probably keeps BDL locked in below 32. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's still a big part of me that thinks a lot more sleet (and snow) than ice given the type of airmass we are dealing with and I think models may show that as we get closer....but if we keep the shortwave fairly amplified, then icing def becomes a big concern and it could be pretty bad in a swath where the big big QPF is butting up against that intense CAD at the sfc.

I thought high rates would cause too much latent heat release and minimize accretion? Looks like heavy rates on the Euro anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

It certainly has that ice look. As always the worst area is pretty narrow as sleet generally becomes predominant.

Even a surface low in Long Island Sound probably keeps BDL locked in below 32. 

Oh yeah for sure...with the location of the high (more N and NW, and not NE)...I think you'd prob have a hard time getting above freezing anywhere too far inland from HVN....I'd be surprised if we don't see some mesolows tracking to our south/southeast in the current model look of a fairly amped system.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...