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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip
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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's true Will... I remember 1/2" glaze over a 6" snow in 1990 I think it was... and noticed that it was more resilient to 40 F afternoon a week later.  Funny ...but I specifically recall noting this when I was kid -

I recall growing up in the 1970s and 80s, a ton of events would give me 4-6" of snow with a half inch to inch glaze on it.  Fun to crunch through, but after that not much fun to play in.

Sort of a creme brulee of snow/ice

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9 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Just a trend I have been noticing, but where I think I am going with this is that as the system traverses the country, we need to prevent it from gaining as little latitude as possible. Back when the HP was modeled in the 1050s, the storm center was exiting the east coast down near the DelMarVa. As the HP has trended weaker, the storm center is able to gain latitude and traverse through SNE. While its likely a cause and Tip can add much more confusing language to explain what I'm thinking, its just something to keep an eye on.

Meh... he's discussing more of the same aspects we covered over and over again about cold, dense air forcing things south. 

If one wants the popsicle headache...  viscous air masses require greater momentum to get them to move.  So, the rotation of cyclostrophic flow doesn't penetrate the cold air very well 

If a storm develops inside the cold air already, that'd different - that means the momentum required to get the cold air to move  was sufficiently large.  But we cannot disconnect the rotation of the low from the low its self...  so the low goes along where the rotation is... If the low establishes along the 'kink' inflection of the front... if the air mass out ahead of the warm front side is a big massive dome of thick arctic gray goose poop, the slow ain't movin' through that sludge man. 

that's why these f'n runs that keep tunneling a 996 mb low through a 1036 mb back polar-arctic hybrid air mass look so fubar... 

we'll see. 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Are you saying you can’t tell the difference? I don’t have my Tippy decoder ring.

Ha ha... was kind of hoping some one could post an image that shows that difference - it was intended as 'leading' 

but yeah... I can't see enough of the difference -

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Euro is almost 2" of QPF with temps in the single digits here.  Lol doubt that has ever happened before.

VD?  This storm reminds me of the VD storm many years ago where the dacks picked up 40 inches of synoptic snow.  I think Gore had over 40 inches and this wasn't powder.  It was loaded with QPF (over 2 inches worth).  Euro prints 30-40 inches from the finger lakes to NNE.  Was over 30 inches for Ithaca....

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha... was kind of hoping some one could post an image that shows that difference - it was intended as 'leading' 

but yeah... I can't see enough of the difference -

Look at hr 96 and 120. I know it’s tough to compare on the free sites,  but there is a separation from the PV lobe rotating down and the srn piece of  energy. 

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19 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I recall growing up in the 1970s and 80s, a ton of events would give me 4-6" of snow with a half inch to inch glaze on it.  Fun to crunch through, but after that not much fun to play in.

Sort of a creme brulee of snow/ice

One of my funnest memories of rompin' in the winter scenery from when I was a kid was in that era ...  We had about 9" of snow crusted over with enough freezing rain that you could run from the street and hop onto the yard and literally glide all the way across the width of an acre without punching through.  Up and over subtle contour changes in the lawn elevations too - it was surreal... 

We  had something almost like that last year.  I was up in Dunstable at my in-laws house after one of those icing events in December...They have a huge field that had a small amount of snow ...and about 1/3 or so of glaze.  I walked out and it was punching through about every third step. Then, there was the echoing sound like your hear on a lake...  seriously. It was the ice fracturing across the open field.  I had never actually heard of that happening, but know now that it can 'field ice' can make the same sound.  

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1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

VD?  This storm reminds me of the VD storm many years ago where the dacks picked up 40 inches of synoptic snow.  I think Gore had over 40 inches and this wasn't powder.  It was loaded with QPF (over 2 inches worth).  Euro prints 30-40 inches from the finger lakes to NNE.  Was over 30 inches for Ithaca....

It's nothing like that storm at all, except maybe in modeled QPF.  Upper levels are no where near that thing.  This one makes no sense that it would pump that much QPF.  I'm always skeptical of any modeled snow that includes QPF over like 0.5" in a 6-hour period.

No closed lows, Valentine's Day was moisture advection off the Atlantic, this is like a giant overrunning-burst.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Look at hr 96 and 120. I know it’s tough to compare on the free sites,  but there is a separation from the PV lobe rotating down and the srn stream energy. 

Perhaps ... I was focused on the surface features... 

Yeah... that N/stream getting involved at all is mucking these runs up... 

It could be that the N/stream involves but the whole construct shifts east(west) ... 

I really get the opinion that this is no different since three days ago... Every run in between has been just throwing out plausibilities.  I'd like this thing off the Pac ... 48 hours from 12z this morning that starts happening. 

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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

After the storm look at that cold for Monday.  Euro has maximums staying below zero from the Mass line north.  At face value it has me at a high of -7F for Monday.  Power outage areas would have some real issues with this type of situation,  frozen pipes etc.

Massive cutter modeled after that for the 26th, but obviously with all that pressing cold.. that is tossed. Just like the overamped cut to ALB was for Sunday 

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

After the storm look at that cold for Monday.  Euro has maximums staying below zero from the Mass line north.  At face value it has me at a high of -7F for Monday.  Power outage areas would have some real issues with this type of situation,  frozen pipes etc.

Take the over on that.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Massive cutter modeled after that for the 26th, but obviously with all that pressing cold.. that is tossed. Just like the overamped cut to ALB was for Sunday 

That's been showing up as a cutter across many models for a while now.  Hopefully you're right.  Will the -NAO be established in time?  

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43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def less amped than 00z...still gonna taint into CNE...but that's a good shift. The sfc will prob stay SE on this run (or would in reality), so it will be lots of ice too.

i don't buy the CAD just eroding like that

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's nothing like that storm at all, except maybe in modeled QPF.  Upper levels are no where near that thing.  This one makes no sense that it would pump that much QPF.  I'm always skeptical of any modeled snow that includes QPF over like 0.5" in a 6-hour period.

No closed lows, Valentine's Day was moisture advection off the Atlantic, this is like a giant overrunning-burst.

It wont bomb like VD did (unless the TPV does indeed try to really phase in).  Those high qpf's are due to the extreme thermal gradient. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Me neither ... no way.  

not when what's filling in said CAD is that massive a surface +PP situated quintessentially N/NW of Maine by so little distance...  

Yep....the two problems with the cutter idea are:

1. PHasing the southern vort with the PV...as you have said, that flat fast gradient flow up north will make for a tough phase.

2. The surface CAD...combined with the magnitude of the airmass and position of it. The high building in from the North and northwest is not your typical eroding in-situ CAD.

 

Those are two different variables that argue against an actual low to our west. Now, that doesn't mean we don't have a midlevel center way out there, but I have a very hard time imagining a sfc low traveling over the interior or to our west. Barring some amazing trend to an actual phase, I would predict that guidance will trend SE with the sfc at a minimum.

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21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It gives you 16" lol.

Looks more like 6-8" in my hood, unless it's still puking at 18Z Sunday.

Another high qpf/low temp event might be 1/27-28/15.

Farmington co-op 1/27:  10   5   1.72"   19.5"  
They added 0.22" and 2.6" in the wee hours of 1/28.   At my place the 20" had 2.17" LE and temps like that co-op - wasn't home for the storm, alas, missing out on all but the driveway clear, but New Sharon co-op had similar temps.

(And I know, that also was a storm vastly different from whatever arrives this weekend.)

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Despite these runs... this is probably 5" of snow ... 1.5" of sleet, 1/3" of glaze... flipping back to wind whipped light snow and flurries with the sound of crumbling paper in the trees during gusts.  Or maybe double those ..whatever, but if anything that's the warmest this gets NW of Boston.  

That's my early call... 

 

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