CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The ensemble splatter of lows is likely due to such a weak and strung out look. I think Will said this yesterday. So any weenie low that is an isobar stronger than the environment pressure will get plotted and make it appear all over the place. Seems like some members like the srn energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Love the Melts....5 days out and they're melting like Snowmen in Miami!! Been tracking this thing for too long...that's why some are flipping out. Like Dryslot said....no right or wrong model depictions right now at 5 days out....things are still evolving and there are going to be many more changes going forward...that you can bet on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: The ensemble splatter of lows is likely due to such a weak and strung out look. I think Will said this yesterday. So any weenie low that is an isobar stronger than the environment pressure will get plotted and make it appear all over the place. Seems like some members like the srn energy. Makes sense, The ones with the lowest pressures are pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Hopefully the Ukie is a prelude to the upcoming Euro. Right now I'd take a compromise between the Ukie and the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, 78Blizzard said: Hopefully the Ukie is a prelude to the upcoming Euro. Right now I'd take a compromise between the Ukie and the GEFS. As long as it doesn’t full phase and cut west to Buffalo as 985 low I’m cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 In the whole scheme of things, Its still don't matter where it is today, More then likely, It won't end up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The existence of this one has been pretty consistently modeled for so long that it seems like an eternity until game time. The slight wavers north and south will drive an unstable weenie mad. Steady as she goes......it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Love the Melts....5 days out and they're melting like Snowmen in Miami!! Been tracking this thing for too long...that's why some are flipping out. Like Dryslot said....no right or wrong model depictions right now at 5 days out....things are still evolving and there are going to be many more changes going forward...that you can bet on. Haven't seen many melts today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I’m liking the EURO for reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Haven't seen many melts today Let the kid go . Attn seeker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 FWIW WPC graphics updates and moved 12z Sunday low position from central /eastern Virginia to Extreme S PA / SW of philly / N of BWI (at 12z) Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Hopefully it goes back to it's original track a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Honestly, this thing is looking like a Low Pressure Center coastal scrapper with the track unless the upper levels change a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 WPC is blending and leaning more EPS with slightly stronger low and favors euro closing S low on Saturday compared to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 24 minutes ago, snowgeek said: The existence of this one has been pretty consistently modeled for so long that it seems like an eternity until game time. The slight wavers north and south will drive an unstable weenie mad. Steady as she goes......it is what it is. while salient advice ... the fact that someone always levels this ...everyone concurs with it's usefulness and truth, yet every model cycles resorts to the same vitriol... tells us that the issue has more to do with something else entirely. These people are capable of learning, and maturing/evolving toward a sophistication of the engagement ... one where the individual doesn't react with a mood shift at all. But they don't evolve ... why? This is about what the model shows at the moment they see it - and, there is a very real ( if not troubling ) sort of emergent dependency there. Take weather enthusiasts at all scales, from beginner enthusiasts to Mets ... they seem to become more like model enthusiasts, and during a post-modern era of rich stimulus to choose from, this gets distilled into an intense quasi-obsession... The model enthusiasm isn't really about the practicum of deteministic weather foreccasting ...Oh there's some... What is sought, though, is a "rush," one that is experienced by dramatic model illustrations ... That rush is similar to a runner's high. People need their drug... they want it at the moment the model is seen.. if they don't get it... they react - learning and evolution has less to do with getting to the rush. That's why this saga replays over and over and over - its' because that cycle has no learning curve. It's a sensation they are after. There's some of that prior to the model-by-web era anyway... the seeds of that vulnerability to a kind of enslavement to the drug were always there. They just were never cultivated like they can be now. How many times did you look at a weather map on the 6 o'clock news (the royal "you") and see a storm up there for D6 ...then... it was gone by the time that D6 was D2 ... ? You felt the same thing... This era we live in compresses that whole phenomenon into short durations ...and with greater amplitude swings. Kind of an interesting social-dynamic versus technology influence thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, The Graupler said: I’m liking the EURO for reasons cool 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, The Graupler said: I’m liking the EURO for reasons The Pope makes his return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: while salient advice ... the fact that someone always levels this ...everyone concurs with it's usefulness and truth, yet every model cycles resorts to the same vitriol... tells us that the issue has more to do with something else entirely. These people are capable of learning, and maturing/evolving toward a sophistication of the engagement ... one where the individual doesn't react with a mood shift at all. But they don't... why? This is about what the model shows at the moment they see it - and, there is a very real ( if not troubling ) sort of emergent dependency about that, too. Take weather enthusiasts at all scales, from beginner enthusiasts to Mets ... they seem to become more like model enthusiasts, during a post-modern era of rich stimulus to choose from... The model enthusiasm isn't really about the practicum of deteministic weather foreccasting ...Oh there's some... What is sought is a "rush," one that is experienced by dramatic model illustrations ... That rush is similar to a runner's high. People need their drug... they want it at the moment the model is seen.. if they don't get it... they react - There's some of that prior to the model-by-web era anyway... the seeds of that vulnerability to a kind of enslavement to the drug were always there. How many times did you look at a weather map on the 6 o'clock news (the royal "you") and see a storm up there for D6 ...then... it was gone by the time that D6 was D2 ... ? You felt the same thing... This era we live in compresses that whole phenomenon into short durations ...and with greater amplitude swings. Kind of an interesting social-dynamic versus technology influence thing. True, true, true. Which is why the every hour model runs of the future will probably lower the life expectancy of a weather weenie by 5-10 years LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: The Pope makes his return. The pope is in NH across the mass state line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: The pope is in NH across the mass state line My sources say otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro is coming in flatter through 90h than the 00z run. We'll see if that keeps translating over the next few panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Big jump today on euro in a good way imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: My sources say otherwise. Really....like something of the movie “split” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro looks interesting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: while salient advice ... the fact that someone always levels this ...everyone concurs with it's usefulness and truth, yet every model cycles resorts to the same vitriol... tells us that the issue has more to do with something else entirely. These people are capable of learning, and maturing/evolving toward a sophistication of the engagement ... one where the individual doesn't react with a mood shift at all. But they don't evolve ... why? This is about what the model shows at the moment they see it - and, there is a very real ( if not troubling ) sort of emergent dependency there. Take weather enthusiasts at all scales, from beginner enthusiasts to Mets ... they seem to become more like model enthusiasts, and during a post-modern era of rich stimulus to choose from, this gets distilled into an intense quasi-obsession... The model enthusiasm isn't really about the practicum of deteministic weather foreccasting ...Oh there's some... What is sought, though, is a "rush," one that is experienced by dramatic model illustrations ... That rush is similar to a runner's high. People need their drug... they want it at the moment the model is seen.. if they don't get it... they react - learning and evolution has less to do with getting to the rush. That's why this saga replays over and over and over - its' because that cycle has no learning curve. It's a sensation they are after. There's some of that prior to the model-by-web era anyway... the seeds of that vulnerability to a kind of enslavement to the drug were always there. They just were never cultivated like they can be now. How many times did you look at a weather map on the 6 o'clock news (the royal "you") and see a storm up there for D6 ...then... it was gone by the time that D6 was D2 ... ? You felt the same thing... This era we live in compresses that whole phenomenon into short durations ...and with greater amplitude swings. Kind of an interesting social-dynamic versus technology influence thing. Well stated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Defintely a better look so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is coming in flatter through 90h than the 00z run. We'll see if that keeps translating over the next few panels. yeap, the PV orientation looks better also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 We'll all know in the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Defintely a better look so far. Shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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