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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip
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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'd be more interested in what the Euro says when we are 3 days out or less.  It has been fallible in the 5 day range past year or two. 

Most of these solutions are being taken way too seriously right now. The storm definitely looks like a legit threat, but I get the sense from the reactions that people are treating these runs as if we're 72 hours out....when we're 5 days out.

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Believe me, no one here is more frustrated than I am, but you can't let that cloud your perception of the future. Obviously, the sensible result as it pertains to snowfall has been more unsavory than we all had anticipated, but that has very little predictive value for the future. The pattern still looks about as good as it can moving forward, and should it not work out, I'll still call for the same thing heading into a season with an identical hemispheric canvass in the future.

All you can do is interpret the pattern and play the odds-

I think that there is plenty of fun to be had, though.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Believe me, no one here is more frustrated than I am, but you can't let that cloud your perception of the future. Obviously, the sensible result as it pertains to snowfall has been more unsavory than we all had anticipated, but that has very little predictive value for the future. The pattern still looks about as good as it can moving forward, and should it not work out, I'll still call for the same thing heading into a season with an identical hemispheric canvass in the future.

All you can do is interpret the pattern and play the odds-

I think that there is plenty of fun to be had, though.

You have had very good poise Ray thru this all . That makes a good forecaster as well. 

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I had to make a forecast for my BY right now, it would be for 5-10" of snow/sleet, followed by a few hours of sleet/freezing rain.

Done.

I think the ice impact will be limited by antecedent snow/sleet mantle that will be deposited.

I find this very reasonable.  Dense stuff with a lot of pellets and liquid

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