STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I think you'll be hard-pressed to see the MLs close off with this given the setup. This is basic an open wave storm developing along the arctic boundary. It's not a re-developer. Definitely agree BOB , was just talking hypothetically i shouldn’t have said “my concern is in reply to rays post “, was more the reality is if H7 miraculously closes its (H7 track) going over CNE most likely , not the SLP i Wanna see models sneak a meso low out under me until game time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Uber phased idea is BS imo. We'll see. essentially ...I agree. But with caution - in fairness, you can have higher velocity flow phasing ...but it's rarer. There is d(t) requirement in the N-S axis that is harmonic with the d(t) in the W-E... If those are off.. the system's phasing potential smears less proficiency along a gradually increasing destructive interference ...until there is non at all. The idea ...if the W-E is moving at a ludicrous speed already, that N stream has to be handled within that frame work of moving parts with pretty exquisite precision - good luck getting that done from 144 hours out and a bunch of mechanics still over the Pacific... Just another run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I think you'll be hard-pressed to see the MLs close off with this given the setup. This is basic an open wave storm developing along the arctic boundary. It's not a re-developer. Its moving to quickly to close this off as it rides the boundary unless it went full phase over the Midwest, Then it would be congrats BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I know that GFS run is a chair tipper for some but man that is a pretty hellacious front end thump especially Pike north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, CT Rain said: GFS solution is pretty close to the best clustering of EPS surface lows (over Albany). F-U-G-L-Y. One thing Scott pointed out was the developing ridge near Bermuda that is helping to kick this west more over the last couple days of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’m not taking about the surface low , I’m talking a scenario where mid levels close Oh..mid levels? Absolutely. I thought you meant surface low. I don't think it will close, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Oh..mid levels? Absolutely. I thought you meant surface low. No that would be hard to imagine , and I would be doing a dual dive w you into refreshing Merrimack river I am contemplating what the upper potential is for ice accretion should 850’s torch for half the QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its moving to quickly to close this off as it rides the boundary unless it went full phase over the Midwest, Then it would be congrats BUF Yep. This is actually a storm we want to come in weaker then currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Yep. This is actually a storm we want to come in weaker then currently modeled. Keep it strung out and let the PV do its work, Its starting to get that thump/icy look here now as well, Not a fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: No that would be hard to imagine , and I would be doing a dual dive w you into refreshing Merrimack river I doubt they close off, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Yesterday’s 12z GGEM had the low in Montreal, today it has it in Virginia. Sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said: Yesterday’s 12z GGEM has the low in Montreal, today it has it in Virginia. Sheesh Pretty solid consistency huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Keep it strung out and let the PV do its work, Its starting to get that thump/icy look here now as well, Not a fan. It would be nice if that H was anchored another over Montreal prior to it moving in. Currently its modeled to be about 150mi N of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 ....only 17 more runs of the GFS to dissect till go time...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 27 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: My concern is if H7 closes , its obviously more amped and amped is H7 is tracking thru CNE imo H7 goes from James Bay to Quebec City this run. It's basically a SWFE....big warm conveyor, dryslot, fropa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 UK and DeepWeenie vs the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Good thing there is another cutter at day 9 to help take the sting out of this piece o crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The high is much quicker to move out on the CMC/GFS vs the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Glad I’m busy in clinic today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: H7 goes from James Bay to Quebec City this run. It's basically a SWFE....big warm conveyor, dryslot, fropa. this, I feel pretty confident this isn't getting bullied more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said: The high is much quicker to move out on the CMC/GFS vs the ICON. In reality, the sfc high will put up a lot more resistance than the GFS/GGEM are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 What am I missing? Even this "bad" run of the GFS gives us our classic SWFE snowstorm to IP/ZR to RN to dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ukie is even more suppressed than 00z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro gonna be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Congrats James on the UKIE? That high position is crazy different than GFS/CMC. Hell the CMC acts like there isn’t even one at all and starts most of SNE as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Euro gonna be wrong I'd be more interested in what the Euro says when we are 3 days out or less. It has been fallible in the 5 day range past year or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Lots of different solutions on the table. 5 days out. Stick with ensembles for a couple of more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'd be more interested in what the Euro says when we are 3 days out or less. It has been fallible in the 5 day range past year or two. There is nothing right or wrong at the moment on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ukmet would be all snow wouldn’t it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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