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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip
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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Even the ICON is cold at the surface,  Can't see the MLs though.  Temps barely exceed 30F at the peak and that is only in SE MA and CC.

Is one key to not torching the surface , not having the two shortwaves phase in the Midwest , not certain if that influences or is a product of a more elongated polar vortex to the SW 

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I feel like you worked so hard over the years to get everyone to toss the GFS and other models.  You used to beg Ryan to go straight Euro/EPS and toss the others as far as the eye could see.  Don't take away all that hard work now.

Kevin's 5:30 a.m. temper tantrum on text message was great lol

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The ICON definitely has trended significantly wetter up north the past few runs so that helps.  Now over 1" QPF into Quebec.

I think it was Ray who said it, but I'd sell the widespread 12"+ amounts as it just seems to be moving so fast.  It's an open wave that somehow is convincing us of 12-20" of snow in like 12-18 hours.  

I feel like we've seen this before with juicy open waves, can still put down good snows but more like 8-12" instead of 12-20".  

But who knows, the models are just so jacked up with QPF.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The ICON definitely has trended significantly wetter up north the past few runs so that helps.  Now over 1" QPF into Quebec.

I think it was Ray who said it, but I'd sell the widespread 12"+ amounts as it just seems to be moving so fast.  It's an open wave that somehow is convincing us of 12-20" of snow in like 12-18 hours.  

I feel like we've seen this before with juicy open waves, can still put down good snows but more like 8-12" instead of 12-20".  

But who knows, the models are just so jacked up with QPF.

Two tell-tale signs of fraudulent (WIDESPREAD) foot+:

1) Mid level low centers are NOT closed.

2) Mid level low centers, H85-7, pass over or to your nw.

#sell

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The interesting thing with that ICON  snowfall printout is that if you take the 35.3" amount in the Southern Rhode Island area and move the decimal point to the left, you get 3.53".  This would translate to a more realistic 4" of snow and heavy sleet.  So maybe actually manipulating the amounts gives you a more realistic reprsentation of what this SWFE will do.  Just saying. It can't be totally "out to lunch" with a solution like that just not the snowfall amounts it showing currently.

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18 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

We even tainted in Albany VD2007.  Ended up with 18" with 40" 30 miles to our west.  Forecasts were fore 2-3' in Albany.  Just missed the biggest storm of my life!

Odd storm.  No taint at my place (temps were near 10 most of the storm) and 15.5" was the biggest snowfall in 2 years, but it was 8:1 sugar while 6 miles west the Farmington co-op reported 23".

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The issue with this not dropping a foot is Mid levels going above 0

this is a VERY prolific QPF producing over-running event . 

i would have no problem going 12-16” where this stays all snow w potential 20” lolli’s

it’s at least 18 hours duration this isn’t a 6-7 hour 1.5 inch QPF thump where we are fooled by euro snow maps 

WPC has 1.5 QPF well into CNE , someone is getting over a foot

it likely won’t be In mass due to sleet or some other mixing , not QPF or duration 

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Two tell-tale signs of fraudulent (WIDESPREAD) foot+:

1) Mid level low centers are NOT closed.

2) Mid level low centers, H85-7, pass over or to your nw.

#sell

Widespread, no, but when you have a moisture laden system slamming into an arctic air mass such as this, we have seen some prolific snow events transpire.

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Why are y'all spending any time dissecting the idiosyncratic absurdities of the snow products when it's been bludgeoned over your heads for years that those are coarse and inaccurate ...rough-at-best 10::1 canvas products... 

It's not "confused" it's doing what it is programmed to do... 

Not sure why folks acknowledge that ...then post like it's offensive or something.

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The issue with this not dropping a foot is Mid levels going above 0

this is a VERY prolific QPF producing over-running event .

i would have no problem going 12-16” where this stays snow 

it’s at least 18 hours duration this isn’t a 6-7 hour 1.5 inch QPF thump where we are fooled by euro snow maps 

WPC has 1.5 QPF well into CNE , someone is getting over a foot

it likely won’t be In mass due to sleet or some other mixing , not QPF or duration 

Obviously here that is the case, but not everywhere.

Sure, someone will get over a foot.

I guess there could be some widespread amounts up to 16" due to overrunning, but more often than not, it doesn't work out. Some of this could also be orographically enhanced up there, too.

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Widespread, no, but when you have a moisture laden system slamming into an arctic air mass such as this, we have seen some prolific snow events transpire.

Yes,  could be one of the exceptions, especially since favored sports are over the mts.

I'll def. sell the widespread 16-20", though....unless H7 closes.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Why are y'all spending any time dissecting the idiosyncratic absurdities of the snow products when it's been bludgeoned over your heads for years that those are coarse and inaccurate ...rough-at-best 10::1 canvas products... 

It's not "confused" it's doing what it is programmed to do... 

Not sure why folks acknowledge that ...then post like it's offensive or something.

Ok...so the coders are confused.  Just looking at a piece of modelling and how their algorithm on TT handles it.  

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