The Graupler Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, BombsAway1288 said: Did someone hack this account? I remember you being nothing but pessimistic/trolling us the last two winters. What happened? I’m not pessimistic. I hate winter and everything about it. But I’m not allowed to leave the state 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The stronger Thursday night is, the more SE Sunday is Oh I know, that's what I'm hoping for but pickles is already turning Friday into a 1-2" max for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 This might lift of few weenies https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1085171005516075008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 19 minutes ago, The Graupler said: I’m not pessimistic. I hate winter and everything about it. But I’m not allowed to leave the state Well that’s a shame for you I guess. Besides the mountains and Upper Midwest, this is probably one of the worst areas to live if you hate winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 24 minutes ago, The Graupler said: I’m not pessimistic. I hate winter and everything about it. But I’m not allowed to leave the state Ankle bracelets? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, WeatherX said: This might lift of few weenies https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1085171005516075008 Deep dogshit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The deep............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Deep dogshit. In the thruster we trust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Oh I know, that's what I'm hoping for but pickles is already turning Friday into a 1-2" max for us. Not for Greenfield your in good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, WeatherX said: This might lift of few weenies https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1085171005516075008 Yeah not sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, WeatherX said: This might lift of few weenies https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1085171005516075008 Lock it up. Very UKish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 What is that IBM thunder models track record? I thought I remember reading a while ago that it was improving all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Has uncle scored a coup since my bar mitzvah? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On bended knees praying D5 UK scores on a bicycle kick outside the box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, cut said: What is that IBM thunder models track record? I thought I remember reading a while ago that it was improving all the time. I'm not sure of its verification, but it always pops up when its snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Has uncle scored a coup since my bar mitzvah? I think it was pretty good in the 12/9 storm last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 We need some intervention by the pope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Darn! too bad that NAVGEM model is what it is ...cuz that 00z run evolution was a be-a-u-tiful Miller B Nor'easter for SNE/CNE...Maine ... NYC... prooobably not so much for snow along the I-95 corridor from Boston S... but inland SNE ... 15 to lollypopped 20" ... one could argue in that set up that the warm penetration is too liberal, too, which would bring/scrunch the ptype profile a tad SE even. As far as all models, I don't believe with that high pressure situated N of Maine there is going to realize the extent of warm intrusion that we are seeing in the GFS/FV3' ... Most important of all... said high pressure is already in that position, prior to the total system arrival, and with such a well established BL resistance already in place, there is an instant pressure responsive ageostrophic flow potential .. (say that five times fast) ... that's the ballgame! There's no way in hell liquid alone falls even as far N as HFD. Nope... if "liquid" is falling from the sky, it's going to be stalagmite ... The Euro seems to be coming around to that resistance by forcing an elongated slow (which is elongated for other reasons...) more SE of previous..? Question mark, because the 00z is between frames at closest pass with what identifiable surface reflection there is... at it seems to be inched SE over previous. [edit: okay...folks seem to think it was inched NW over previous.. sure. But it doesn't change any rational/logic with the corrective BL] ... It too has a strong enough +PP situated N, with fresh dense cP air ... established and in place. Too much so for me to believe even it is entirely correct with detailed handling (transition zones ... lower thickness tapestry...etc) Still more than 4.5 days out... I think we see some inch-wise corrections if not a more obvious one that finally sees the weight of the high/llv resistance,... from all guidance for that matter. Part of that resistance isn't just the surface high... it's the circumstantial deep layer flow with that SPV gyre over central/eastern Canada ... that's not really conducive to a west correction with out phasing more... We go through this every system that has a +PP circumstance N of the region. Paranoia and lack of faith erodes the cold vastly more efficiently than verification proves is/was the case. This geographic layout east of the eastern U.S. cordillera simply will not allow a warm intrusion with lower tropospheric vector pointing S from the N - it's nearly physically impossible to overcome topographical counter-curl vector+cold damming already in place, enough to displace positive-static stability physics from the top down. Not by forcing riding over top ... which is also - btw - S of LI at closest pass. This entire virtual situation as set up in both blend and individual modeling coverage, WILL correct S, sleet, ice in that order, OR, just be a short duration ice storm. Also...I say short duration ... because climo of "severe" and/or historic scenarios usually are protracted events with lighter fall rates .. The slow misting with light ZR maximizes accretion proficiency ... 29 is a great temp for that ratio... Colder than you're wasting to bouncing bee-bees... That said... as 2008 showed, we can still pummel a region with 1 to an 1.5" accretion ...even if that is only half what falls.. I'm not saying an impact won't occur at 31.9 with heavy rain... but 2008 was unique for those parameters. This situation ... to me, looks like 1/2 ZR with 1/2 sleet in the greatest proficiency axis, because the termination along the cP air to the WAA is going to be compressed and a taller column of cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah not sure about that. Purely entertainment right now, but I suppose something like that could happen with 5 days to go. Gotta have something to hug lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Navgem not being further se is a flag in and of itself just keep me under 32 and bring the QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Navgem not being further se is a flag in and of itself just keep me under 32 and bring the QPF No thank you. No when the BL temps go above 0c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 27 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Lock it up. Very UKish. That's nice. Wish we could sign up for 6" here and 12-18" in SNE. Give the weenies what they need and refresh the snowpack up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: On bended knees praying D5 UK scores on a bicycle kick outside the box. Doesnt the crazy uncle score better than most at this time frame other than of course the EURO? This far out, I guess it could be right in the end. It's all about the trends at this point and I see nothing but windshield wipers right now....that being said, I don't expect an all frozen event here, hopefully a net gain at the end without the power killing ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 hours ago, mreaves said: Yeah, that has the max 26 right over top of me. I'll sell on that. Of course my snowblower is still down so maybe that locks it in for me. I don't know why so many want to be in the jackpot at 5 days out. Just the fact that Euro and EPS has been hinting up here at Day 5-6 means this will either end up in SNE or Montreal. The models never hit on a solution at 6 days out and ride that to hour 0. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Funny...that ICON model's 00z evolution almost looks better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I don't know why so many want to be in the jackpot at 5 days out. Just the fact that Euro and EPS has been hinting up here at Day 5-6 means this will either end up in SNE or Montreal. The models never hit on a solution at 6 days out and ride that to hour 0. For someone as smart as you this is brain dead logic there is no where MORE favored than where models show it at day 5. If your in bullseye then you have most wiggle room either way. I see this as repeated all the time as more a way to avoid the “pressure lol” of letting day 5 bullseye shape peoples forecasts . Find another spot that has a better shot at 6 inches than the middle of a day 5 EPS . There is no very high confidence play at that spot but the bullseye has best shot at warning . people just don’t want to have to adjust down from the 18” bullseye they would rather adjust up from 5” . It’s strange when people are caught up in their heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That's nice. Wish we could sign up for 6" here and 12-18" in SNE. Give the weenies what they need and refresh the snowpack up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: For someone as smart as you this is brain dead logic there is no where MORE favored than where models show it at day 5. If your in bullseye then you have most wiggle room either way. lol ok deal Pickles. I'll buy the beers next time you are in Stowe if this doesn't move at all for 5 days of model runs. But if it does you are paying the tab . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol ok deal Pickles. I'll buy the beers next time you are in Stowe if this doesn't move at all for 5 days of model runs. But if it does you are paying the tab . Movement N or S isn’t the point . It’s that day 5 bullseye has best shot of verifying warning . It’s just the bullseye distorts people anticipated totals and they become all weird and nervous knowing it’s gonna be likely trending down from a bullseye as opposed to the “low stress of being pleasantly surprised “ when day 5 shows 1/3 of the bullseye amounts and you can trending up from a lesser event or NBD if you miss bc you aren’t anticipating much . It’s voodoo psychology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiktock Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Someone needs to create a website where you put in your home address and it finds the model that is currently outputting the highest possible snowfall amounts and only displays that map. In all honesty thats the game for most until these things are within 3 days from hitting... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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