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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip
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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the 26-27th has been showing up frequently among the various GEFs members ...there's probably something in there...whether it turns out to be a trough/flexer/cold wave reinforcing shot or a storm (or both) is gee, less certain that anything before that but ...once in the favorable pattern, all intervals of interest are non-negligible. 

And only 12/13 short days away. I'll get my snow blower ready. 

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2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Lol. That’s awful. Rains to Maine (after a burst of snow and ice)

Lets continue the bump NW and maybe we can pull a DSD MLK?  

Whatever, I will be worried if we still have lots of members showing inside runners on Thursday morning.  If tomorrow shows a noticeable trend among all models moving NW it won't be a great feeling but Thursday morning is my target.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Funny the mean didn’t look that bad. You’d think it would be much worse. 

Hard to say on that because the low is so strung out, that the timing is all screwed up for where the low "center" is....there's probably some members with a "low" in SE OH that doesn't even cut, but it kind of appears as a cutter on the still frame there.

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3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I still feel with a powerful Polar Vortex over Hudson Bay, Canada and a powerful cold air mass entering the region on Saturday, I feel suppression is a large problem over cutter.

You have some support here for this:

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not a shocker ... the compression won't be denied!  ...

it's hard to get a trough axis turned around in this sort of base-line high velocity field ... wrote about this for days - we'll see

I saw another post by Tip where he said he was 100% certain, but couldn't find it.  He must have deleted it - no one wants to be 100% certain of anything right now.  But maybe he's talking about real compression - another MA deal.

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

We've seen significant southern PV presses in the past, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

There were a couple of March storms a few years ago where the snow swath shifted like 400-500 miles south from SNE/N. Mid-Atlantic to Virginia 48-60 hrs before the event began. 

March of 14 it was I believe...they got like 3 storms in a row in mid March and had a terrific finish to that season, and so far south at that!! 

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We got a great high and fresh arctic cold at least

I still think that PV won't be denied.  Good dense cold press to shunt this SE.  Maybe it's a defense mechanism, who knows, but the set up of a strung out low riding a boundary doesn't seem like something that will cut and might even be suppressed.

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah lots of ugly members. I’m still afraid this won’t turn out terrible wintry, but we shall see. 

Tough to argue for a snowy solution in SNE right now given the breadth of model solutions.  As we know, plenty time to change things though.  Here are some thoughts in my head.

I think we need to see a slower progression of s/w across the country so we can establish the cold.

The lead wave for Friday coming in stronger/further N will be an indicator of where the best baroclinity will be for the follow wave. Seeing this lead wave potentially push further north is not what we’d like to see in SNE for a more wintry outcome

 My last thoughts are with regards to the MJO and their influence on the PAC flow.  It seems like the PV in latest model runs is being displaced a bit further N.  It also looks like there has been a shift of the ridge out west offshore which is not a good location for us.

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Tough to argue for a snowy solution in SNE right now given the breadth of model solutions.  As we know, plenty time to change things though.  Here are some thoughts in my head.

I think we need to see a slower progression of s/w across the country so we can establish the cold.

The lead wave for Friday coming in stronger/further N will be an indicator of where the best baroclinity will be for the follow wave. Seeing this lead wave potentially push further north is not what we’d like to see in SNE for a more wintry outcome

 My last thoughts are with regards to the MJO and their influence on the PAC flow.  It seems like the PV in latest model runs is being displaced a bit further N.  It also looks like there has been a shift of the ridge out west offshore which is not a good location for us.

Valid concerns. My focus has been on #1. Even if the Fri clipper is further north, if we can hang back the Sun energy some more initially, it can offset it. 

But I agree. It’s not this simple vodoo of “the PV will push this colder”. 

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