powderfreak Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Even the runs that start kind of amped really get pinched as they try to amplify. I am not silly enough to rule out a cutter but I'm kind of skeptical of one. That PV is strong and it going to be a lot of resistance. Wouldn't surprise me if we got the classic SE trend around day 3-4 followed by the last minute latent heat north trend inside of 36 hours and the final result is pretty wintry. Yeah I think there'll be a good south tick at the 48-84 hour zone of model guidance. Those anafrontal systems I remember like to go that way (SE) leading in. Then there'll be some NAM run that brings sleet to MWN and everyone loses their shit. The system wants to cut but the PV won't let it...going to be a long few days of model runs. It's still like 2-3 days out from getting to the meso-models. An eternity for model land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yes, I believe we will have as extreme of a storm center as NEMO's 960mb at the benchmark or just east. James, the names are horse shit. Can you please just refer to month and year? TYIA 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Sleet is a major player methinks Years of experience tells us this will be more snow to sleet than ice for you and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: James, the names are horse shit. Can you please just refer to month and year? TYIA Sorry, I like the names, but for you Jerry I will make an exception, Feburary 8-9th 2013 Blizzard, 960mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Honestly this set-up sort of reminds me of March 6-7, 2011 with a huge QPF storm running along a stalled boundary. Just that system was NNY and NVT but this one will be a lot further south...but the idea is the same with a very strong thermal gradient and a moisture rich low riding up along the boundary. It was like 10F with 25" of snow up north while ORH was 50F and inbetween was one heck of a sleet/ice storm. That event also trended south in the final two days or so as the boundary kept sagging south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Sorry, I like the names, but for you Jerry I will make an exception, Feburary 8-9th 2013 Blizzard, 960mb Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I wish this storm was only 3 days away instead of 6. With a colder look of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I have a feeling the storm center gets stronger with a further south track, why the push of the very cold air mass southward over the Gulf Stream, and yes that would aide bombogenesis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 55 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What are these positive depth change maps? They make no sense with the model run. Like 18-30" in NNE? Where is the GFS even close to that. I am not sure. I assume that 1- they don't include sleet unlike the "snowfall maps on Tropical Tidbits" and 2-take into account temp but those are my assumptions. They were typically lower than the "snowfall" maps until the last couple of storms. Comparing the two it seems to show less snowfall in the ice/sleet area of SNE and more snowfall in the colder sections. Either way they are 6 day clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I have a feeling the storm center gets stronger with a further south track, why the push of the very cold air mass southward over the Gulf Stream, and yes that would aide bombogenesis Of course you do. If winter outcomes were based on feelings, you’d get a stroke from over excitement. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 59 minutes ago, WeatherX said: I do too Ray. Today sucked for trends though. . I hoped for this...PV will crush. Keep the faith. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Of course you do. If winter outcomes were based on feelings, you’d get a stroke from over excitement. lol, true, but this is a reasonable explanation, the cold air mass is strong and pours southward, the PV is strong as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 A strong storm signal is emerging for another Miller A snowstorm on January 24/25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Blech, thinking this one is gonna suck down here. Rain is the preferred option if heavy ice is the other choice on the table. Would like to be up in like Jaffrey for this. That said, long range continues to look filthy good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Even the runs that start kind of amped really get pinched as they try to amplify. I am not silly enough to rule out a cutter but I'm kind of skeptical of one. That PV is strong and it going to be a lot of resistance. Wouldn't surprise me if we got the classic SE trend around day 3-4 followed by the last minute latent heat north trend inside of 36 hours and the final result is pretty wintry. 100% agreed. The current nw trend is music to my ears. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: lol, true, but this is a reasonable explanation, the cold air mass is strong and pours southward, the PV is strong as well. Not denying the big airmass. Has potential to get this SE but it’s also about the orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 If everything goes right for the coastal plain of SNE, the next 10 days we could make up our deficits and lead to above normal snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not denying the big airmass. Has potential to get this SE but it’s also about the orientation. True, and the polar vortex seems more eastward over eastern Hudson Bay, Canada 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The polar vortex seems to oscillate from east to north to west to south and then east, and every time it cycles a new disturbance emerges from the west coast of the CONUS, and moves through the US lower 48. AS it cycles and moves to eastern Hudson Bay a storm emerges on the East Cost, I favor a more eastward solution given the placement of the Polar vortex. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Wishcasts galore. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Someone post the weeklies please. An old man needs a boost... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wishcasts galore. You just don't want the snowstorms to head southward and miss you Brian. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: You just don't want the snowstorms to head southward and miss you Brian. It’s a good thing then that most snowstorms don’t head southward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: LOL what is it doing at 150. Redeveloping low to south. I mean it's not just that model had poor resolution and/or just ... flat f'n incorrect resolution in the boundary layer, it's got bizarro physics down here... I've seen it do this in the past, where that behavior (like you described) exhibits an awareness of BL resistance/CAD/cold thickness packing and squeeze south...yet it simultaneously warms the interior with phantom CF penetration NW while the wind is blowing FROM the NE - hello Yeah... put my money not so much on poor resolution .. but just f-ed up resolution. Not kidding I've flat out noticed these like concurrent physically impossible results at other times. It did it during heat waves going the other direction last year too - I seriously hope this new paralegal run is better than this... oy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: What's with the freaking out over the EPS? They looked stellar to me. There's a mild risk at a 1-2 day milder period around D9-10 but the signal is weak. The 11-15 is going full weenie mode...that NAO signal getting louder and louder. Winter enthusiasts should want that anyway... In a hemispheric sloped pattern, a warm-up preludes a bomb ... numb-nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 16 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wishcasts galore. I don't wishcast. While a the more northern track is certainly a viable outcome, there is a polar vortex in relatively close proximity, and the notion that it will press is also a distinct plausibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Does the E PS animated GIF that I saw on John earth lights Twitter feed suggest a huge East Coast storm developing around January 29 or 30th at the southeast Canada vortex shifts a bit to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 the 26-27th has been showing up frequently among the various GEFs members ...there's probably something in there...whether it turns out to be a trough/flexer/cold wave reinforcing shot or a storm (or both) is gee, less certain that anything before that but ...once in the favorable pattern, all intervals of interest are non-negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 OK let's not slip too far into the abyss. How's the 18z euro look? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: OK let's not slip too far into the abyss. How's the 18z euro look? s/w for friday on the 18z euro looks better then the 12z run, A few tics further north, Little more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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