HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Please tell me this is wrong It would be like after the Octobomb when people were driving from CT to Greenfield just to get gas and food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Yea but the majority of zr icing efficiency is explained via rates. Wet bulb temp and wind are also important but not as important as rate. Sure. Never said it wasn't. You really want a prolonged -ZR or ZL event to go epic with the accretion...a la 98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Sure. Never said it wasn't. You really want a prolonged -ZR or ZL event to go epic with the accretion...a la 98. Yea. I built the FRAM into a spreadsheet at work. Id be interested to see what it would come up with (some of that qpf is ip obviously). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Right but you can still get refreezing of the rain drops when you have a deep cold layer...esp when the min temp in the cold layer is below -6C. In this case we'd prob have cold layer at least -9C or -10C. So you want to really warm that raindrop up to prevent it from refreezing on the way down. I've read in papers that once you get that warm layer to about +6 or +7, it becomes pretty hard to refreeze. Yeah....I think -8C in the cold layer is that general cutoff between reforming sleet and just having supercooled drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that's merely QPF as ZR/IP. But still, after 4-8" of snow another 1-2" QPF IP/ZR is a huge impact event if that's what someone gets. 850s were toasty but SFC frigid...I mean 850mb freezing was up near CON on that Euro run while it's below freezing at the SFC to like the south coast. One consistent feature on all these solutions is the Arctic high situated to the northwest and an arm extending north of us. That basically makes it impossible to get rid of the low level cold even near the coast because it gives us an ageostroohic flow out of the northwest. The only way would literally be to have the trough become so amped that we get the low to rip into NY state or something. Otherwise it's pretty hard to see any way we avoid wintry precip of some kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Link? actually it was end November 1921 ... not '26 ... Yeah it's out there... here and there. It doesn't appear to be heavily annulled but accretion depths exceeding 3" was reported over "eastern and central massachusetts" so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Sure. Never said it wasn't. You really want a prolonged -ZR or ZL event to go epic with the accretion...a la 98. Wasn't 98 days of freezing drizzle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's going to be no wet snow with this storm. Low levels are absolutely frigid. I agree on leaning more toward sleet than ZR though. Typically an airmass this cold will want to sleet. We will really need to torch the midlevels really high. Prob like +6-8 at minimum to get ZR because the arctic layer is so cold and pretty thick near the ground. Is there anyone in particular most susceptible to ice in this set up..? Like CT ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: actually it was end November 1921 ... not '26 ... Yeah it's out there... here and there. It doesn't appear to be heavily annulled but accretion depths exceeding 3" was reported over "eastern and central massachusetts" so.. Lol...about to have a 100 year ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Wasn't 98 days of freezing drizzle? And light steady ZR too mixed in. I remember the radar looking showery at times. Even some embedded heavier showers. But it was literally like 4 days worth of it. Obviously this is a different setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Nice exotic solution for hazey too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Windy.com has soundings but its just a plot of the course resolution upper level temps that exist elsewhere on the internet (925, 850, 700, 500) i think real soundings would be super pricey. weatherbell I believe has a skew-t kind of sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Is there anyone in particular most susceptible to ice in this set up..? Like CT ? Yeah CT and RI are prob more susceptible (as currently modeled)...they will be closer to the warmest midlevels but they will have zero chance of warming above freezing with strung out sfc low moving to their southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We pray it’s right . Please We pray you get your Hyundai genny installed by Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, tombo82685 said: weatherbell I believe has a skew-t kind of sounding It has profiles (like bufkit) of temp and rh. But i dont think its actually at full model vertical resolution. So warm layers can get missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Wasn't 98 days of freezing drizzle? At times, It was, Plus -RN with a few hours of RN too, We will never forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Nice exotic solution for hazey too. He goes from parakeets to a powder blizzard in 6-12 hours. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Nice exotic solution for hazey too. I'll pass on that dogs breakfast. yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just catching up in the thread. Glad it's pretty safely just snow up here. Some damaging ice wherever that sets up. Arctic cold afterwards to add to misery. The Euro and GFS diverge as to what might happen mid next week and beyond, Euro offering temps above freezing by mid next week for some melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Man the Euro is ugly down here. That's a really impressive ice storm has modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 20 minutes ago, weathafella said: Lol...about to have a 100 year ice storm. January 29, 1886 The Great NEW England ICE STORM Of 1886 https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=12&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj4gunW_O3fAhVQU98KHcEBCBYQFjALegQIARAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fseacoastnh.com%2Fthe-great-ice-storm-of-1886%2F&usg=AOvVaw2Rf9UXQ7-zfWG8GGYN4okh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Needham, 1921 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It has profiles (like bufkit) of temp and rh. But i dont think its actually at full model vertical resolution. So warm layers can get missed. This is what it has, I always thought it was a sounding. But I guess not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Needham, 1921 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0493(1921)49<612a%3AGISONI>2.0.CO%3B2 @weathafella Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiktock Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 This year I finally upgraded my snow removal machine from a pathetic little 9HP walk-behind to a Kubota tractor running a ~20+HP PTO-driven 50" wide blower. Looks like I might need it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: This is what it has, I always thought it was a sounding. But I guess not. That looks like more than mandatory level resolution to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 50 to 60 mph gusts on the NE coast with .5 plus ice accretion why not, what a bear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Let's wait for the EPS. Somehow, I think all of the ensembles are going SE of their ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Man the Euro is ugly down here. That's a really impressive ice storm has modeled. Ryan, if the precip is heavy enough, will latent heat release save us? Or will the LL cold overwhelm the latent heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: This is wrong. Dick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now