MaineJayhawk Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Won't hear from our CT peeps for a month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3-5" of pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Those wxbell algorithms hate ip. Its either snow or zr which is bs. among other notable gems, ...yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: WOW at these ice amounts as QPF. Jesus, if that's the preferred mode, I'd like a cutter. Don't think I've ever seen 2" of ice in this area and I don't ever want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 It's either snow or rain but not ice based on history. Unless the Euro is trying to depict a January 1886 Ice storm wich would be an over 100 year ice storm which I don't think will happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Are Euro soundings available anywhere? Free or paid? I really want to see what it looks like. Taking verbatim at hour 148 for KASH: SFC -6 C 925 -5 C 850 5 C 750 -2 C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Here comes 2015 on the GEFs.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s effing dangerous yo. with signs of the arctic coming afterwards, I want my power...on the other hand what trees werent destroyed from the tornadoes this year, the ice will clean up the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's a lot of winter qpf for the queens that run. Warning snows to epic scalping to probably at least some ZR. Esp south of pike where we can breach +6 at 850 which usually makes it hard to refreeze into pellets. I want as much stuff torn down as possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: Jesus, if that's the preferred mode, I'd like a cutter. Don't think I've ever seen 2" of ice in this area and I don't ever want to. Totally with you on this. December 2008 ice storm was a disaster here in Central Mass. The only plus was the mild weather that followed. That isn't going to be the case going forward. Lets throw in the dice and go for a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 This area (metro Boston) just doesn’t get those zr amounts....ever! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Here comes 2015 on the GEFs.. Hasn't it been showing that for several days now. Has it ever not been outside 300 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's going to be no wet snow with this storm. Low levels are absolutely frigid. I agree on leaning more toward sleet than ZR though. Typically an airmass this cold will want to sleet. We will really need to torch the midlevels really high. Prob like +6-8 at minimum to get ZR because the arctic layer is so cold and pretty thick near the ground. Agree totally on this. Only the thinest of cold layers wouldn't refreeze at those temps. Hopefully, GC can pull more SN than ip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 I'm kinda hopin' we have a pan-wide historic ice-induced grid failure during the Patriot's game... That'd maximize the pain and irony - 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I want as much stuff torn down as possible Then, may it fall on your own house, at your own request. And may everyone else be spared. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: This area (metro Boston) just doesn’t get those zr amounts....ever! they did 1926 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Those wxbell algorithms hate ip. Its either snow or zr which is bs. This.....although does anyone have any good published papers regarding surface freezing layer thickness and freezing rain. Like if the freezing layer is 3000 ft, but the precipitation is falling quick enough, does it have time to freeze again? Or is it's velocity too high to actually form pellets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Keep in mind that aside from those maps underplaying sleet too much, the ZR qpf amounts do not mean that is what you accrue on the trees and power lines. Your accretion rate is probably going to be about half to two thirds of that and even a bit less when the precip rate is very heavy. The rest you will lose to runoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's going to be no wet snow with this storm. Low levels are absolutely frigid. I agree on leaning more toward sleet than ZR though. Typically an airmass this cold will want to sleet. We will really need to torch the midlevels really high. Prob like +6-8 at minimum to get ZR because the arctic layer is so cold and pretty thick near the ground. I think Wes has said anything above 4C completely melts the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Not too shabby. Widespread winter precip. What an ice storm for the Pike region down into CT/NRI. The last 3 euro runs have been 12-18"+, To bad its not friday right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: they did 1926 ... Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Are Euro soundings available anywhere? Free or paid? I really want to see what it looks like. Taking verbatim at hour 148 for KASH: SFC -6 C 925 -5 C 850 5 C 750 -2 C Windy.com has soundings but its just a plot of the course resolution upper level temps that exist elsewhere on the internet (925, 850, 700, 500) i think real soundings would be super pricey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Keep in mind that aside from those maps underplaying sleet too much, the ZR qpf amounts do not mean that is what you accrue on the trees and power lines. Your accretion rate is probably going to be about half to two thirds of that and even a bit less when the precip rate is very heavy. The rest you will lose to runoff. This could be pretty efficient though with the arctic dry air source advecting in and temps so low to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: I think Wes has said anything above 4C completely melts the snow. Right but you can still get refreezing of the rain drops when you have a deep cold layer...esp when the min temp in the cold layer is below -6C. In this case we'd prob have cold layer at least -9C or -10C. So you want to really warm that raindrop up to prevent it from refreezing on the way down. I've read in papers that once you get that warm layer to about +6 or +7, it becomes pretty hard to refreeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm kinda hopin' we have a pan-wide historic ice-induced grid failure during the Patriot's game... That'd maximize the pain and irony - We may not want to watch anyway if it gets ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Please tell me this is wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: This could be pretty efficient though with the arctic dry air source advecting in and temps so low to begin with. Yea but the majority of zr icing efficiency is explained via rates. Wet bulb temp and wind are also important but not as important as rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Keep in mind that aside from those maps underplaying sleet too much, the ZR qpf amounts do not mean that is what you accrue on the trees and power lines. Your accretion rate is probably going to be about half to two thirds of that and even a bit less when the precip rate is very heavy. The rest you will lose to runoff. Yeah that's merely QPF as ZR/IP. But still, after 4-8" of snow another 1-2" QPF IP/ZR is a huge impact event if that's what someone gets. 850s were toasty but SFC frigid...I mean 850mb freezing was up near CON on that Euro run while it's below freezing at the SFC to like the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Please tell me this is wrong This is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Please tell me this is wrong We pray it’s right . Please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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