dryslot Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 That's one hell of a thump up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 boston maybe flips at 141hrs temporarily.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Phewww gotta hang on few more runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Orh ice storm BOS wouldn't even make it above freezing on that sfc setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: BOS wouldn't even make it above freezing on that sfc setup. yeah, thermals don't look right..but could be some mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Very good looking storm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 That's a lot of winter qpf for the queens that run. Warning snows to epic scalping to probably at least some ZR. Esp south of pike where we can breach +6 at 850 which usually makes it hard to refreeze into pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 man EURO run is a bomb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1.75-2.0" qpf all snow up this way, Oye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Euro bias at this time range - overamped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Discard cmc amout 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: That's a lot of winter qpf for the queens that run. Warning snows to epic scalping to probably at least some ZR. Esp south of pike where we can breach +6 at 850 which usually makes it hard to refreeze into pellets. So did the scooter streak save us , a vortex lobe (from cutting) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: 1.75-2.0" qpf all snow up this way, Oye. You're probably scalping at 150h but yeah, you get a ton of snow before that and prob some after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Yeah... Will... Though I'm getting yo-yo'ed back and forth on the 'ice' per se... I'm inclined in this circumstance to believe the lower tropospheric thickness/correction vector has to be pointed cold. I don't ever, 100% of the time, ever underestimate cold when +PP is north of SNE. That just fluid-dynamically is physically impossible, period. The only way it ends warmer, is if the models were wrong with the +PP in the first place. Anyway, my point is... I almost wonder if this is like that thing we had late last March...where it was cold and a middling coastal pounded sleet up to 1.5" deep or so... Not so much as an analog, but to show we can generate a pan-wide pellet carpet bomber storm when there is very proficient surface wedging under an IB/WAA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 DIT's dream ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: You're probably scalping at 150h but yeah, you get a ton of snow before that and prob some after. On the edge of the pellets it seems, 0 to -4c at H85 at that hour, But will have to look higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Not too shabby. Widespread winter precip. What an ice storm for the Pike region down into CT/NRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Anyone know what 12" of snow, plus 4" of sleet and a 1/4" of ice is like to move? Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Snow maps are insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 We won't get that kind of ice as modeled. That will either be heavy sleet and grauple or heavy wet snow with that track. Mid levels will hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: So did the scooter streak save us , a vortex lobe (from cutting) It's not even that...the southern stream is just getting pinched as it moves east...like Tip said, it makes it hard to completely turn the flow around negative on that. If the PV becomes more malleable then it makes the cutter risk more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 WOW at these ice amounts as QPF. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Those wxbell algorithms hate ip. Its either snow or zr which is bs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 almost 3" of liquid here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Anyone know what 12" of snow, plus 4" of sleet and a 1/4" of ice is like to move? Asking for a friend. 24" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 That’s effing dangerous yo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: WOW at these ice amounts as QPF. Lol. NYC-BOS shutdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Greg said: We won't get that kind of ice as modeled. That will either be heavy sleet and grauple or heavy wet snow with that track. Mid levels will hold. There's going to be no wet snow with this storm. Low levels are absolutely frigid. I agree on leaning more toward sleet than ZR though. Typically an airmass this cold will want to sleet. We will really need to torch the midlevels really high. Prob like +6-8 at minimum to get ZR because the arctic layer is so cold and pretty thick near the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Not too shabby. Widespread winter precip. What an ice storm for the Pike region down into CT/NRI. I see 7" here, which means the rest of the 1.3" of precip that falls is sleet and or freezing rain....I will pass, send that snow line south please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: WOW at these ice amounts as QPF. 2.7 inches of Ice for my hood...ya I'll pass on that. That would be a catastrophe here if that played out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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