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Winter Events Jan 17-20


ChescoWx
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This seems pretty up in the air still but I think the icing threat is pretty significant for the Lehigh Valley and Berks. I don’t see the 5-10” verifying and think 3-6” is the better call for the front end that will come down fast and stick immediately. Seems like Mt. Holly is underplaying the freezing rain threat right now with only 0.1” mentioned in the watch but maybe they are seeing something that signals more sleet or we really do just go to plain rain. If I were to guess we never get above freezing and there is pretty decent ice accretion up this way. Hopefully the biggest story with this is the extreme cold on Monday though and not power outages. 

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Latest Wxsim for NW Chester County PA with 18z data from NAM/GFS trended slightly colder as temps now only get as high as 33 degrees here is the rundown

Snow by 2pm Saturday S+ by 3pm mixing sleet by 4pm some heavy sleet through 6pm with 4" to 6" of snow/sleet accumulation before a turn to ZR which continues till 1130pm with another 0.90" falling as ZR - temps than rise to just above freezing thru 8am with 0.40" of rain and 0.5" of ice accreteion

before a mix with sleet and snow and then all snow by 9am with another 1" of snow before ending

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17 minutes ago, timp said:

This seems pretty up in the air still but I think the icing threat is pretty significant for the Lehigh Valley and Berks. I don’t see the 5-10” verifying and think 3-6” is the better call for the front end that will come down fast and stick immediately. Seems like Mt. Holly is underplaying the freezing rain threat right now with only 0.1” mentioned in the watch but maybe they are seeing something that signals more sleet or we really do just go to plain rain. If I were to guess we never get above freezing and there is pretty decent ice accretion up this way. Hopefully the biggest story with this is the extreme cold on Monday though and not power outages. 

 

16 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Latest Wxsim for NW Chester County PA with 18z data from NAM/GFS trended slightly colder as temps now only get as high as 33 degrees here is the rundown

Snow by 2pm Saturday S+ by 3pm mixing sleet by 4pm some heavy sleet through 6pm with 4" to 6" of snow/sleet accumulation before a turn to ZR which continues till 1130pm with another 0.90" falling as ZR - temps than rise to just above freezing thru 8am with 0.40" of rain and 0.5" of ice accreteion

before a mix with sleet and snow and then all snow by 9am with another 1" of snow before ending

I actually think the ZR risk is over modeled, when the ice in sandwiched with snow I notice that real world takes some of the ZR qpf and turns it into sleet. ZR only happens in absolutely perfect ZR condition... to warm and it LR to cold and its Sleet. Modeling has shifted away from the classical blowout ice storm analogs. I think '07 VD is a more likely situation than a '94 or even Feb '14 ice storm. Overall the drama of this storm is over exaggerated due to winter of snore feelings by us amateurs. I think it will be 4-6" in Pottstown with plenty of sleet and 8-12" up at Bear Creek. 

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3 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

 

I actually think the ZR risk is over modeled, when the ice in sandwiched with snow I notice that real world takes some of the ZR qpf and turns it into sleet. ZR only happens in absolutely perfect ZR condition... to warm and it LR to cold and its Sleet. Modeling has shifted away from the classical blowout ice storm analogs. I think '07 VD is a more likely situation than a '94 or even Feb '14 ice storm. Overall the drama of this storm is over exaggerated due to winter of snore feelings by us amateurs. I think it will be 4-6" in Pottstown with plenty of sleet and 8-12" up at Bear Creek. 

I think it is more like 3 or 4" followed by a quick transition to ZR but with only slightly below freezing temps and steady rain it will not accrete that impressively - just my 2 cents

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Final nail in the coffin on the weekend? Models are considerably warmer surface and at 850 now. Far NW areas should cash in but aside from the icon and NAM basically this is mainly a rainer down here now. GFS has a couple mangled flakes to start and to finish and that's it. Same with RGEM. Next week looks like a fropa followed by a wave on the front that either cuts or slides ots under us....choose your poison on that one. 

3 weeks pitchers and catchers.

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2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I don't pay attention to The Weather Channel, and I really hate the naming of winter storms, so I just now found out that this weekend's storm is named Harper. With that thought in mind, let's go Phillies. Sign Bryce and get it over with...lol

I was never big on overpaying for one player. It's not like he is going to make us an overnight contender by himself anyway. Why waste the cash? Put a chunk of that money towards a legit ace starting pitcher instead. Need a solid top 3 which we dont have still. 

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NAM 3k continues to show positive trends aloft. If we can get the mid-level jet to stay weaker and deflect further offshore, then inland areas will have a better chance of staying snow and coastal/I-95 areas will have a better chance of staying sleet/freezing rain.

nam3km_mslp_uv850_neus_fh48_trend.thumb.gif.5efb4d617aa72c6d0f2f57296abd900c.gif

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I was never big on overpaying for one player. It's not like he is going to make us an overnight contender by himself anyway. Why waste the cash? Put a chunk of that money towards a legit ace starting pitcher instead. Need a solid top 3 which we dont have still. 

Can't say I disagree, but they are going hard after Machado or Harper, so I'd rather have Harper. I think he has more of a team attitude than a me attitude like Machado. As for starting pitchers, who's still available. Keuchel?

So as not to go off topic too much, this storm. As is usual around these parts, track and precip types are giving me a headache. One takeaway, it seems, is that even up my way, the best rates are going to be wasted on zr or ip. My NWS point-click has 1-2 inches of "precipitation" during the darkness hours Saturday night/Sunday morning. I'll admit to not digging too deep into the models for other than surface temps and precipitation totals, since I was in the truck, and navigating Tidbits or Pivotal is quite cumbersome on a cell phone. I've mainly been following you guys and the Central PA forum for good information.

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1 minute ago, Voyager said:

Can't say I disagree, but they are going hard after Machado or Harper, so I'd rather have Harper. I think he has more of a team attitude than a me attitude like Machado. As for starting pitchers, who's still available. Keuchel?

So as not to go off topic too much, this storm. As is usual around these parts, track and precip types are giving me a headache. One takeaway, it seems, is that even up my way, the best rates are going to be wasted on zr or ip. My NWS point-click has 1-2 inches of "precipitation" during the darkness hours Saturday night/Sunday morning. I'll admit to not digging too deep into the models for other than surface temps and precipitation totals, since I was in the truck, and navigating Tidbits or Pivotal is quite cumbersome on a cell phone. I've mainly been following you guys and the Central PA forum for good information.

I would think you'll do well up there, even with some mixing at some point.

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My NWS Point and Click for NW Chester County PA has reduced the snow and sleet forecast to only 2 to 3" of snow and then to rain with no ice accumulation....of course my local Wxsim program with 6z GFS and NAM has increased both the snow/sleet and ZR...assuming the NWS used the 0z NAM

Here is the Wxsim breakdown

Snow Saturday afternoon becoming moderate by 3pm and Heavy by 4pm - transition to a heavy mix of snow/IP at 6pm with already 3.0" of snow - Heavy Sleet from 630pm through 11 pm with total snow/IP accumulation of 6" to 8". ZR from 11pm - 2am with up to 0.5" of ice accretion before turning to rain - another 0.75" falls as plain rain before a brief change to snow before ending.

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I was never big on overpaying for one player. It's not like he is going to make us an overnight contender by himself anyway. Why waste the cash? Put a chunk of that money towards a legit ace starting pitcher instead. Need a solid top 3 which we dont have still. 

Hi Steve - disagree big time on this. The Phillies have already upgraded significantly IMHO at 4 positions this offseason. LF/SS and 1B (with the move of Hoskins here) and Bullpen

They need one more big bat and 1 more starting pitcher and they will be contenders for sure this year

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I'm going with sleet to rain based on what you guys have here.  Maybe a few flakes before it shuts off.  I really appreciate all the insight (and jokes) since I have no idea what I'm talking about!    The most exciting obs I will be looking to post will be my temp on Sunday am!!  50s?  It may happen.

Wondering if anyone recalls the last flash freeze that happened?  I recall a Friday evening commute several years ago where an emergency broadcast went out as roads iced up in Chester County from a significant drop in temperatures.  I worked in West Chester at the time.  In town was OK, but side streets in neighborhoods were glazed over.  I ended up at my sister's home nearby unable to make it home.

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