Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 FWIW I do still believe I95 will cash in at least once BUT I think it will end up later in Feb as the hopefully semi-permanent neg NAO wanes. It may require some painful patience so it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: FWIW I do still believe I95 will cash in at least once BUT I think it will end up later in Feb as the hopefully semi-permanent neg NAO wanes. It may require some painful patience so it is what it is. Then the sun angle starts to play a factor unless at night. I've almost come to the conclusion we are not going to win this winter no matter what...maybe some dribs and drabs but nothing super nice. Decent chance the Nov storm may have been our best... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: FWIW I do still believe I95 will cash in at least once BUT I think it will end up later in Feb as the hopefully semi-permanent neg NAO wanes. It may require some painful patience so it is what it is. Thanks for the optimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Latest Wxsim with 12z data up to 3" of snow by Friday AM in NW Chesco. Regarding weekend storm Has a brief period of snow arriving by 4pm Saturday quickly going to moderate sleet and than ZR with about 1.00" falling as frozen before temps rise above 0c around midnight. Than Heavy rain with another 1.40" falling with temps rising to 38 by 7am Sunday wind shifts to NW by 9am and temp fall below freezing by early PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Then the sun angle starts to play a factor unless at night. I've almost come to the conclusion we are not going to win this winter no matter what...maybe some dribs and drabs but nothing super nice. Decent chance the Nov storm may have been our best... Disagree irt sun angle. See last March for example late month. Next day full sunshine sure but it can snow and pile up quickly still thru early April during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said: Thanks for the optimism If there were a recent winter where we were hoping to cash in and go above climo with a few big storms in like a 10 days stretch this is the winter. TPV nearby, active stj, current sustained epo ridge. Like I posted in my outlook even without a sustained neg NAO we can cash in with a transient one if timing works out. Sustained and record SD is all well and good but its more about timing the teleconnections properly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrweissm Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Halfway through meteorological winter as of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 BTW, the Euro and EPS trended so much more favorably for this weekend. More separation of the TPV lobe and southern energy. I think you want to see a continued trend in less western ridge amplification. That will help to limit the southerly angular momentum of the TPV and allow for it to scoot east without phasing into our system. The Euro was so close to looking like the UKMET. The surface didn't reflect it because, in the end, the TPV does phase in, but a couple more ticks in less phasing and you will see the rubber band snap and boom we've got a UKMET solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Disagree irt sun angle. See last March for example late month. Next day full sunshine sure but it can snow and pile up quickly still thru early April during the day. Agreed, last March wet snow bomb is in my top 3 events of my life easily. A foot of cement in 6 hours. Spring events can rock especially in a volatile set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, The Iceman said: Agreed, last March wet snow bomb is in my top 3 events of my life easily. A foot of cement in 6 hours. Spring events can rock especially in a volatile set up. Yeah, the lightning and thunder was pretty epic with that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 34 minutes ago, Newman said: BTW, the Euro and EPS trended so much more favorably for this weekend. More separation of the TPV lobe and southern energy. I think you want to see a continued trend in less western ridge amplification. That will help to limit the southerly angular momentum of the TPV and allow for it to scoot east without phasing into our system. The Euro was so close to looking like the UKMET. The surface didn't reflect it because, in the end, the TPV does phase in, but a couple more ticks in less phasing and you will see the rubber band snap and boom we've got a UKMET solution. Plus we are still several days out. It's not like we are 1-2 days before the event, things can still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 41 minutes ago, mrweissm said: Halfway through meteorological winter as of today. "meteorlogical" Real seasons: May through September = Summer, October = Fall, November through March = Winter, and April = Spring. Change my mind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just look at the last 3 runs of the NAM. The strong NP jet breaks down the western ridge. It results in less southerly angular momentum of the TPV energy and would likely result in a better southern solution. Now I'm not saying this is the end-result, but looking at the December storm and this past weekends storm, we couldn't get the PV energy to phase in due to interference within the PNA region. This resulted in a horrible orientation of confluence into the NE. Root for the seasonal trend of less northern stream - southern stream interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I have no memory of a snow bomb last March it must have missed Qtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: I have no memory of a snow bomb last March it must have missed Qtown Really? I thought it was area wide. I don’t remember but it blasted lower Bucks with a foot of snow in 5-6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: I have no memory of a snow bomb last March it must have missed Qtown That was my most 'epic' storm of the entire winter season. Puked marshmallows with thunder for several hours. Lost a few utility poles outside from weight bearing trees snapping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
540line Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Yes, march 7 I remember it well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 0z guidance just took a big step in joining the 12z ukmet in trying to bring the Sunday storm back to frozen farther S and E. Separation between jet streams and not the massive wrapped up phased cutter looks anymore. Looks like a far NW burbs MECS for now but if the changes continue I95 might be right back in the game over the next couple of days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Euro took another step in the right direction at 500mb. Ridge out west looks lightly more progressive while separation between jets is evident. With that said euro is 6-8" up here and that extends east thru about NYC with a sharp cutoff to nearly 0 at Asbury Park. Most of PA sees snow but far NW burbs cash in with a MECS. GEFS also look solid FWIW with a bit more than half of the members showing significant snow up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 With the 6z models coming in colder the Wxsim is now reflecting this - so after 2 or 3" of snow tomorrow night. It has S+ arriving Saturday by 6pm transitioning to a period of heavy sleet with 3" to 4" of snow/ip accumulation before a change to ZR with 1.18" falling as frozen before a change to all rain by 2am. Then another 1.60" of rain with temps at about 34-35 degrees before a change back to sleet and then snow before ending. Wxsim also shows more heavy snow arriving Tuesday night into Wed AM with the early potential of several more inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z NAM is basically just faster but it does have 0c down through DC - looks like nice front end thump - but would imagine with this quicker movement it will have lower qpf than earlier runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said: With the 6z models coming in colder the Wxsim is now reflecting this - so after 2 or 3" of snow tomorrow night. It has S+ arriving Saturday by 6pm transitioning to a period of heavy sleet with 3" to 4" of snow/ip accumulation before a change to ZR with 1.18" falling as frozen before a change to all rain by 2am. Then another 1.60" of rain with temps at about 34-35 degrees before a change back to sleet and then snow before ending. Wxsim also shows more heavy snow arriving Tuesday night into Wed AM with the early potential of several more inches of snow. any chance you can tell me what it says about the LV? With the mid-levels screaming torch in the Euro, I am real interested to see how much freezing rain/snow. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Latest ICON is a mess up here Saturday Sunday. 2m temp teeters between 29-32 much of the event and only briefly gets to 33 or 34 at best. CAD continues to get more pronounced as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6z icon center of lp was off Maine coast at 12z it is on the central va/NC border. Just a minor change lol. Eta: to be fair it looks like waves on a front rather than 1 tightly wound lp areas thus why seeing the lp keeping shifting around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 hours ago, Albedoman said: any chance you can tell me what it says about the LV? With the mid-levels screaming torch in the Euro, I am real interested to see how much freezing rain/snow. Thanks Unfortunately it is just an IMBY model that simply combines the GFS and NAM for my exact location....check out their website - they can customize for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I’d put money right now on 12-18 from quakertown to mt pocono. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I’d put money right now on 12-18 from quakertown to mt pocono.Would be epic. I never like these snow to rain events here. I feel the change over always comes quicker than modeled. This storm however seems to be trending towards a transfer near the benchmark. We still have so wiggle room here north and west for this to be all white. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 So I assume based on the maps in the NYC forum that this would be a bad ice storm here in the suburbs according to the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Fields27 said: Would be epic. I never like these snow to rain events here. I feel the change over always comes quicker than modeled. This storm however seems to be trending towards a transfer near the benchmark. We still have so wiggle room here north and west for this to be all white. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk It happens like that everywhere for the most part w/very few exceptions. First, the deadly ping against the window then no more pings which equals plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, mattinpa said: So I assume based on the maps in the NYC forum that this would be a bad ice storm here in the suburbs according to the Euro? Freezing rain map from the MA subforum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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