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Winter Events Jan 17-20


ChescoWx
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Wxsim has 2 snow events this week for NW Chesco - 1st up in Thursday night into Friday AM with 2.0" of snow - then snow arriving on Saturday early evening continuing through midday on Sunday with 12.0" of snow before ending.

NWS already has a 70% chance of snow on Saturday night....

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Wxsim now has 2 to 3" of snow across NW Chesco by Friday AM before the big storm hits over the weekend. 

It has Snow arriving and becoming heavy Saturday Evening with up to 3" of snow/ip by 9pm - then another 0.30" of ZR falling between 9pm an midnight. 

Then heavy rain from midnight through early PM Saturday with up to 2.00" of rain then a transition from rain to sleet to heavy snow by 9pm with another 3" of snow falling before ending on early Monday AM.

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1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Wxsim now has 2 to 3" of snow across NW Chesco by Friday AM before the big storm hits over the weekend. 

It has Snow arriving and becoming heavy Saturday Evening with up to 3" of snow/ip by 9pm - then another 0.30" of ZR falling between 9pm an midnight. 

Then heavy rain from midnight through early PM Saturday with up to 2.00" of rain then a transition from rain to sleet to heavy snow by 9pm with another 3" of snow falling before ending on early Monday AM.

Does Wxsim have an algorithm for a kitchen sink because that seems like the only thing lacking? :lol:

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Thursday night looks like light snow to start especially NW of the Del River. It may transition over to plain rain especially South of the PA turnpike tho most guidance is tracking the slp farther to our South each run which if that trend continues would bode well for more frozen than wet. Generally looks like a C-2"/1-3" type of system. If we can get this to strengthen and migrate near the 50/50 spot that would be beneficial for the Sunday event which right now favors rain to frozen.

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Latest Wxsim has 2" of snow for NW Chester County by Friday AM 

Weekend event has heavy snow arriving by 5pm with a quick transition to a heavy sleet/snow and then to ZR mix - with 1.03" falling by midnight with temps just below freezing. Temps than rise to the mid-30's with heavy rain thru Sunday AM with another 1.30" of rain falling. Rain ends as temps plummet during the PM from a high of 37 at 10am to 12 degrees by midnight

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10 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Latest Wxsim has 2" of snow for NW Chester County by Friday AM 

Weekend event has heavy snow arriving by 5pm with a quick transition to a heavy sleet/snow and then to ZR mix - with 1.03" falling by midnight with temps just below freezing. Temps than rise to the mid-30's with heavy rain thru Sunday AM with another 1.30" of rain falling. Rain ends as temps plummet during the PM from a high of 37 at 10am to 12 degrees by midnight

this is like... the worst possible forecast for a skier. plain rain would be better. 

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2 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

Upcoming "threats" quickly becoming upcoming LOLs

Until I actually see the sustained neg NAO and other modeled teleconnections actually verify I will always have doubts I guess. LR has been slightly better recently but bad taste in my mouth still from 6 weeks ago or so. Cautiously optimistic is my mantra this year as well as seeing is believing. Models can be as persistent as they want but doesnt always mean they are right. One of the fears I've mentioned on here quite a bit recently is that when/if this nao flip happens we go dry as the stj quiets down. There are for the first time signs of this happening now via the euro family of LR guidance. Trying to stick mid range but hard not to look LR in this hobby as well. Again....cautious optimism. I would much rather have the modeled looks in the LR than have a total puke PAC and N Atl with progressive torch.

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Until I actually see the sustained neg NAO and other modeled teleconnections actually verify I will always have doubts I guess. LR has been slightly better recently but bad taste in my mouth still from 6 weeks ago or so. Cautiously optimistic is my mantra this year as well as seeing is believing. Models can be as persistent as they want but doesnt always mean they are right. One of the fears I've mentioned on here quite a bit recently is that when/if this nao flip happens we go dry as the stj quiets down. There are for the first time signs of this happening now via the euro family of LR guidance. Trying to stick mid range but hard not to look LR in this hobby as well. Again....cautious optimism. I would much rather have the modeled looks in the LR than have a total puke PAC and N Atl with progressive torch.
Always skeptic without neg NAO but why were people so excited for this pattern?

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, hurricane1091 said:

Upcoming "threats" quickly becoming upcoming LOLs

So true. Not busting on anyone but so many members on this and the MA subforum keep saying "perfect setup" is coming (for weeks now)...and meh, we got an 1" or 2 the other day. These upcoming threats are diminishing and look like a mess rather than anything interesting. And before you know it it's Feb then Spring is right around the corner. Yes, it hasn't been a blow torch but trying to get a snow storm has been hell. A normal 3-6" storm (all snow) seems like a pipe dream these days...  

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Sunday system 12z gfs has lp over Pittsburgh....that's not gonna work. Thump quickly to rain verbatim

<sarcasm>Well, I guess next couple of runs will probably show cutting up over Chicago at this rate...:lol: </sarcasm>

When will the west trend end, that is the question..

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Regarding Thursday night so far all 12z has come in colder. Not any heavier with qpf but we take what we can get in what Redsky has dubbed  'the winter of azz'.

I don't think he's the only one...truly disappointing winter so far w/no real end in sight. And "no" not some fantasy 10day out storm which is utter crap 95% of the time.

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17 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

I see Hurricane Schwartz just tweeted a severe cold and stormy pattern is now likely from late January through February - I for one remain confident that everyone on here will finish with above normal snow this year....heck I am only about 1" below normal through today

Probably just wants viewers for NBC10 since the chief meteorologist right now doesn't grab people's attention....

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3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

1-3" for all this region except east central New Jersey just white rain there. 

And now for the clincher kick in the cajoles  big snow now for DC-Baltimore Thursday night

 

That really doesn't bother me since they get screwed most of the time....ever so often it's one of their years, not ours.

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