weathermedic Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 22 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Just saw the EURO ensembles... wow love the south leaning guidance. Definitely more SE plots so that would argue that the EURO at 6z was too warm. Probably “seeing” the storm/energy ejecting farther south in the mid-section of the country then earlier model runs. Thus, it stays a bit farther south as it comes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, weathermedic said: This could be the kind of situation where areas along the south shore of NYC (JFK, southern Brooklyn, Rockaway, Staten Island) change to rain and have temps 33-35 while upper Manhattan and Bronx have freezing rain/sleet with temps 28-32. Pretty much what I'm expecting unless there are major changes in the modeling today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Be careful with automatically cutting snowmap snow totals just do to sleet. 1. Like November models tend to under do front end dumps. Almost every SWFE ends up under modeled. So that should lessen how much you cut from a snowmap. 2. The 1st hour or 2 of mixing it WILL still accumulate, obviously though less than 10 to 1. So if a snowmap states say 5. Do not automatically cut 3. I would go 4 of sleet snow mix. I REALLY hope we avoid a major ice storm. Last March a tree fell on my house due to a 10 in her in early March. No more havoc pls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 IMBY Question, as I'm trying to catch up on everything from last night: What's this looking like for MMU? I lost power for six days total last March, and would not enjoy that again; the house will get terribly cold when it's zero outside. Plus, tree damage from freezing rain would be horrendous after the March 7th devastation here (20"+ wet snow). Thanks, as always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 31 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Pretty much what I'm expecting unless there are major changes in the modeling today. That or the cad might hang on longer than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 35 minutes ago, weathermedic said: This could be the kind of situation where areas along the south shore of NYC (JFK, southern Brooklyn, Rockaway, Staten Island) change to rain and have temps 33-35 while upper Manhattan and Bronx have freezing rain/sleet with temps 28-32. How much for Manhattan Valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6z Euro for anyone that is interested. https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1085898034540695552?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Could we be looking at some freezing rain by any chance in Central/Southern NJ tonight? I have to pick up family from ACY around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Cobb Snow Method has just 2" front end snow. Sends NYC temps. into 40's and offers all rain and no back end snow either. Does get the temperature down to 10* on Monday AM. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Euro has single digit lows and highs for NYC on Monday with wind chills well below 0. It's way worse for inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: That or the cad might hang on longer than modeled. that's a given Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: that's a given Yeah, surface should stay pretty cold regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This is a big reason why the system has trended further Southeast. Look how much the trough evolution has evolved on the GFS over the last 3 days. This is why you never make absolutes 5-6 days in advance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: 6z Euro for anyone that is interested. https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1085898034540695552?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet Somewhat of a drop off. May be just waffling and fall south a bit at 12z. The icing looks nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 06z ICON has a good front end dump followed by a lot of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 NAM coming in a bit stronger. 996 before 1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 06z ICON has a good front end dump followed by a lot of ice. In the teens and freezing rain at 7AM Sunday in the HV? Shoot me now if that's really going to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: In the teens and freezing rain at 7AM Sunday in the HV? Shoot me now if that's really going to happen. It could be a lot of sleet, don't really know without soundings which I don't have, but the setup is about the ugliest I've ever seen locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: NAM coming in a bit stronger. 996 before 1000. Yep more amped. Pretty quick changeover to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: NAM coming in a bit stronger. 996 before 1000. A little warmer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Icing still looks bad but Definately cut back on the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, TwcMan said: wow a foot of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Looks like the albany is the place to be with this storm as far as snow. Nam looks a bit warmer which is good news nobody wants ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Looks like the poconos is the place to be with this storm as far as snow. Nam looks a bit warmer which is good news nobody wants ice Due north is much better. Won't have to go far for those crazy numbers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Icing still looks bad but Definately cut back on the snow. Nyc is right on the line. It's going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: wow a foot of sleet More qpf than 6z. I know the map includes sleet but wonder if it includes ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: More qpf than 6z. I know the map includes sleet but wonder if it includes ZR Just now, EastonSN+ said: More qpf than 6z. I know the map includes sleet but wonder if it includes ZR Just now, EastonSN+ said: More qpf than 6z. I know the map includes sleet but wonder if it includes ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Northern NYC on NW is all frozen on the NAM. I think the NW Suburbs could get a crushing icestorm. For Bronx, upper Manhattan, Lower Westchester this could be very on the fencxe between nuisance icing and damaging icing if the NAM surface temp depiction is accurate and I usually trust the NAM most with surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: More qpf than 6z. I know the map includes sleet but wonder if it includes ZR The Tidbits maps include sleet as 10-1 snow and since a lot of that is sleet (can tell by difference between their maps and Pivotals, which show very little snow, since they don't include sleet), 10" is more like 4" of snow and 2" of sleet (equivalent to 6" of 10-1 snow). Neither service includes ZR in their snowfall algorithms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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