NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Now this is what I'm talking about. 18 degrees in Rockland County and it's only 06z Sunday. U see how the last frame the Pv presses and it cools down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: U see how the last frame the Pv presses and it cools down Pv has been our thorn with the last 2 systems. This might help us this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just listened to the 4pm NWS forecast for my area in Sussex, Co. NJ. They say snow Sat afternoon and Saturday night, chance of light freezing rain and sleet after midnight. LITTLE or NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. Sunday, light freezing rain and sleet. No mention of a change over. What are they seeing that we're not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 This has the making to be one of the most important/impressive CAD situations in a long time. Even as upper levels may warm, the surface is pounding colder on due north winds into the low 20s/upper 10s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: U see how the last frame the Pv presses and it cools down The problem isn't surface temps. This is what's driving all the precip and it's mostly at the 850mb level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Textbook CAD. You can see why the icing threat is so high. Upton’s new point and click for Rockland County has “little to no snow accumulations” Saturday night and is calling for sleet and freezing rain Saturday night and Sunday. I guess they are thinking that there’s going to be a very strong midlevel warm punch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Just listened to the 4pm NWS forecast for my area in Sussex, Co. NJ. They say snow Sat afternoon and Saturday night, chance of light freezing rain and sleet after midnight. LITTLE or NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. Sunday, light freezing rain and sleet. No mention of a change over. What are they seeing that we're not? They usually lag a day or so behind the latest model trends. Also they weigh the GFS heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: The problem isn't surface temps. This is what's driving all the precip and it's mostly at the 850mb level. The 850’s will cool too with the pv pressing like that. No doubt we’ll have a battleground between snow and sleet for a bit around jfk area but in my opinion this is mostly a snow event as it stands to me. Still plenty of time to change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: The 850’s will cool too with the pv pressing like that. No doubt we’ll have a battleground between snow and sleet for a bit around jfk area but in my opinion this is mostly a snow event as it stands to me. Still plenty of time to change You're really just wishcasting. The city is going to be battling between plain rain and freezing rain after the initial snow on Saturday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Heading upstate to Liberty NY in Sullivan County on Friday @ 1,600 feet. Can I expect mainly snow there, over a foot? Is this storm elevation based too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The NAM evolution is odd. It’s almost as if it has a separate WAA event up this way and in New England and tries to just break off the surface low down over the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: They usually lag a day or so behind the latest model trends. Also they weigh the GFS heavily. Ok. I was gunna say, if it doesn't happen by me, chances are it's not happening for 98% of people in the NYC metro on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Ok. I was gunna say, if it doesn't happen by me, chances are it's not happening for 98% of people in the NYC metro on this forum. I would say you have a pretty good shot at staying mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, sferic said: Heading upstate to Liberty NY in Sullivan County on Friday @ 1,600 feet. Can I expect mainly snow there, over a foot? Is this storm elevation based too? Elevation could actually hurt you since you would be closer the warmer air aloft, however that far N&W should be less of an issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, sferic said: Heading upstate to Liberty NY in Sullivan County on Friday @ 1,600 feet. Can I expect mainly snow there, over a foot? Is this storm elevation based too? Yeah that's far enough NW IMO. Sullivan county looks in line to get pounded. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM evolution is odd. It’s almost as if it has a separate WAA event up this way and in New England and tries to just break off the surface low down over the MA I was thinking that but didn't want to over analyze an 84 hr NAM run. It almost looks like we would dry slot and the coastal would pass off the NC coast and we wouldn't get much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM evolution is odd. It’s almost as if it has a separate WAA event up this way and in New England and tries to just break off the surface low down over the MA ICON just went that route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said: 50 miles south trend and New York City stays all snow. Just need that primary to die off a bit earlier and the new low to form a bit more south. Which is possible because we still have about 84 hrs till go time. Is it 30?, 50?, next time 75? You act like NYC is Albany. There is a reason you only average 27" inches a year. Most foot plus storms are supposed to be to your North. You are like a homeless person by the Port Authority except you are begging for snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The ICON (do we look at that?) is colder and never gets above 0C at the surface N of 195. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: ICON just went that route. The ICON doesn't look like the NAM to me. It has a lot more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 New ICON is colder than 12Z. I think ICON should really only be used for trends FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: The ICON doesn't look like the NAM to me. It has a lot more precip. I mean in terms of storm in the MA, WAA precip to the north(and lots of it) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said: Is it 30?, 50?, next time 75? You act like NYC is Albany. There is a reason you only average 27" inches a year. Most foot plus storms are supposed to be to your North. You are like a homeless person by the Port Authority except you are begging for snow. NYC’s ceiling on this event is probably 7-8 inches. If I had to guess now I would say they’ll get 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: Epic CAD signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You're really just wishcasting. The city is going to be battling between plain rain and freezing rain after the initial snow on Saturday night. I believe he's basing this on the latest NAM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Nice front end dump on the ICON, allow position ends up being quite nice too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: I mean in terms of storm in the MA, WAA precip to the north(and lots of it) I guess I see it now, this is what the NAM was probably going to look like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The ICON has nearly 4" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: The ICON has nearly 4" of liquid. And cold. If that extreme solution were to verify oh boy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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