USCG RS Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 This snowmap is a bit overdone on the southern edge imoVerbatim that looks.like a nasty ice storm Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 16 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Lots of cold rain for the NYC area. 50 Miles makes a huge difference. Yesterday's 12Z was about 50 miles SE of this track Cold rain ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Cold rain ? Yes, the UKMET is some snow followed by a ton of cold rain for NYC with temps in the high 30's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The UKMET has Newark running 33-35 degrees at the surface for the duration of the storm with similar temps for NYC and LI. Most of interior NJ west of the GSP never gets above freezing though. Same with the LHV and interior CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Yes, the UKMET is some snow followed by a ton of cold rain for NYC with temps in the high 30's High 30's is not accurate. It runs 34-35 degrees mostly. And if those temps are off by a few degrees then it's freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 EURO looking slightly better than yesterday's 12Z through 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Cold rain ? NYC gets 3-6" before the changeover with 10-20" for the Northern and Western suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtremegk Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 So at this point can we pretty much write off any snowblower-worthy snow for the Jersey coast (5-10 mi inland, southern Monmouth County)? Or is there a plausible scenario that brings the cold air far enough SE (or, more appropriately, keeps us from getting torched)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The Euro to me looks identical to the 00z run through 00z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 As you can see, by this panel the 850mb freezing line is already into the Hudson Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, mikem81 said: EURO looking slightly better than yesterday's 12Z through 72 we don't care much about comparing it to yesterday's horribly warm and inland 12Z - we want it to be as good or better than last night's 0Z, which was decent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Significant freezing rain interior NJ and LHV. This is 5-10 degrees colder than the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: As you can see, by this panel the 850mb freezing line is already into the Hudson Valley Looks like the UKIE to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5-7" on the Euro for NYC proper before the changeover. Double that 25 miles inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Positive trend. Boston get smoked. Lets just get this a little more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 track looks just like the UK: from the ArkLaTex to central VA to presumably close to the benchmark. All about thermal profiles now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Wow, temperatures just plummet. Unfortunately precip is ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Another 1-3" on the backside. 2 FEET for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I think we have tremendous positive trends from the best 2 global models going on. Basically we have 72 hours and all we would need would be a 50 mile shift SE with the LP track to keep NYC area all frozen on the EURO and UKMET..... Even the GGEM is catching on to the colder trend. Any earlier coastal transfer would make this possible. It seems to already put Boston into the huge Snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Main takeaway, the primary tracks into West Virginia and then transfers to the coast like the UKMET/GGEM. Ends up passing East of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Euro is a biblical ice storm for nyc and LISent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 That's a lot of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Would love to see the comparison in surface temps between yesterday's 12Z and today's/ I believe NYC got up to 55 yesterday on the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, USCG RS said: Euro is a biblical ice storm for nyc and LI Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk No, the primary ice zone is from I-84 on the North end to about route 80 on the South side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: As you can see, by this panel the 850mb freezing line is already into the Hudson Valley Still getting smoked up here in Cornwall at 12z. Would have well over a foot by then with these rates. Line not going much further north of there either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 That's a lot of liquid.With the gradient, I still believe this will be further SE. Alot of snow incoming imo. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, mikem81 said: Would love to see the comparison in surface temps between yesterday's 12Z and today's/ I believe NYC got up to 55 yesterday on the EURO This is the warmest panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 this is all due to that polar vortex extension phasing with the southern vort much later than modeling had a day or two ago. i'm not sure this trend has ended though, we need to see some stability on that before any of this can be trusted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, mikem81 said: I think we have tremendous positive trends from the best 2 global models going on. Basically we have 72 hours and all we would need would be a 50 mile shift SE with the LP track to keep NYC area all frozen on the EURO and UKMET..... Even the GGEM is catching on to the colder trend. Any earlier coastal transfer would make this possible. It seems to already put Boston into the huge Snows I can't consider freezing rain frozen precip. Its liquid. Any major snow chance looks over for NYC. Sure there could be a lot of zr but its liquid falling. Mid levels torched to hell even the best solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 How close is this to an all snow event from NYC-BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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