SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I could really do without 2-3" of rain followed by arctic cold, it doesn't get more miserable than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Maybe the 84 hr NAM is onto something. Would be a game changer. If that were to happen and develop at the right time we all would be looking a major snowstorm! Only time will tell if that re-development will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: I could really do without 2-3" of rain followed by arctic cold, it doesn't get more miserable than that. No need to put full stock in the goofus... u know better then that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12Z CMC moved the "frozen" line about 30 miles SE vs. 6Z, so it's now no longer an inland outlier with the track. Another thing to keep in mind (sorry if this is a repeat as I haven't read the last few pages) is that the TT maps show sleet as 10:1 ratio snow, while the Pivotal maps don't show sleet at all, so they'll show a lot less "snow" in the maps. Both are misleading. Anyway, with respect to the CMC, here's how it changed looking at both sources (only showing the 6Z CMC from Pivotal to illustrate the reported "snow" differences). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I could really do without 2-3" of rain followed by arctic cold, it doesn't get more miserable than that. in the "amazing" winter of 18-19 it's what you get.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, RU848789 said: 12Z CMC moved the "frozen" line about 30 miles SE vs. 6Z, so it's now no longer an inland outlier with the track. Another thing to keep in mind (sorry if this is a repeat as I haven't read the last few pages) is that the TT maps show sleet as 10:1 ratio snow, while the Pivotal maps don't show sleet at all, so they'll show a lot less "snow" in the maps. Both are misleading. Anyway, with respect to the CMC, here's how it changed looking at both sources (only showing the 6Z CMC from Pivotal to illustrate the reported "snow" differences). Don't think the snowfall gradient is that sharp. Also think the icing threat which has been advertised for days is coming to roost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Ukie out on the sideways French site yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Ukie out on the sideways French site yet? Its almost @Rjay time and his new subscription for the UKIE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, allgame830 said: No need to put full stock in the goofus... u know better then that! Fair enough, I'll wait for the Ukie/Euro to disappoint me. I think we would see more ZR/FRZ if the antecedent airmass was colder but right now it may just be a quick rain to snow solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Don't think the snowfall gradient is that sharp. Also think the icing threat which has been advertised for days is coming to roost. Agreed - main point of the post, though, was to show that both model output sources are misleading in their own ways, since they don't really show sleet or ZR separately and handle sleet either as part of snow (TT) or not as part of snow (PW). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 23 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Huh? Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk If this year continues as such, it wouldn't be the first time we did NOT have a great winter despite having a "great pattern" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 UKIE with a 990 near the benchmark lol prior panel has it in southern WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The jet streak is strong, that's why we have so much precipitation on the front end and that's also why the system moves so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 For all to see : http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest how it gets from WV to the benchmark is beyond me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Most models have about 18-21 hours worth of precip. From about 00z Sunday to 21z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Sn0waddict said: For all to see : http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest how it gets from WV to the benchmark is beyond me. It redevelops like the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Maybe there's something to the idea of a transfer to low off Virginia afterall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: It redevelops like the GGEM. With a weak enough low and a strong enough high pressure I guess that could squash it and cause redevelopment off the coast? Kinda seemed like that was what the NAM was going to do. GFS is just too amped for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Discuss the storm...and only the storm. There are plenty of psychology forums if anyone feels the need to continue discussing the mental aspects of rooting for snow vs rain. Thanks. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: It redevelops like the GGEM. Do you know the final results, snow vs. rain, amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Do you know the final results, snow vs. rain, amounts? The model only initialized a few minutes ago on trueWeather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: For all to see : http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest how it gets from WV to the benchmark is beyond me. Need to see the in between panels from paid sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It redevelops like the GGEM. Looks to re-develop in slightly better spot than GGEM based on where it ends up unless in sinks SE to the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 this ukmet run is very close to what deep thunder has been showing since its past few runs. implies a 2-part system with snow > ice > snow for the metro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Ukmet looks a lot better than last nights. Although it doesn’t look as good as yesterday’s 12z run. I wonder if rjay could show us the thermals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2019011612/usa/sea-level-pressure/20190121-0000z.html looks to re-development further south than GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: this ukmet run is very close to what deep thunder has been showing since its past few runs. implies a 2-part system with snow > ice > snow for the metro. The redevelopment would be interesting, that would definitely hold the low level cold in place vs. more of a FROP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 UK looks like a benchmark track! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: The redevelopment would be interesting, that would definitely hold the low level cold in place vs. more of a FROP. Exactly. I think most of the solutions imply cold air hanging tough despite whatever their 2m temp/wind progs show. The sagging isobars extending out of the high up north will allow for ageostrophic northerly flow rather than the E or SE winds the models spit out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Are we looking at some possible frontogenesis with the exit of this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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