allgame830 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Unfortunately that 6-9 inches over the metro it predicts will probably translate to ice rather than snow per Bluewave's posts because the middle layers are torched. Yes possibly in the metro itself but not so much for areas north and west of the city. Hopefully an earlier start time will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Thanks - would prefer rain to any ice (sleet is fine) so hoping for a good front end thump and/or back end surprise. The 0z Euro was a pretty serious ice storm just to the NW side if I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Yes possibly in the metro itself but not so much for areas north and west of the city. Hopefully an earlier start time will verify. anything and everything in no particular order is still on the table for NYC and the immediate suburbs - confidence for areas farther north and west for mostly frozen is increasing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Unfortunately that 6-9 inches over the metro it predicts will probably translate to ice rather than snow per Bluewave's posts because the middle layers are torched. Not really. ~0.6" QPF falls as snow then some freezing rain and then rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Sref is at long range but it's really cold with the low further south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Not really. ~0.6" QPF falls as snow then some freezing rain and then rain. Much of that is ice or sleet near NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 51 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Very disheartening. Couple inches washed away. I’ve been reading through 20 pages of posts for the last several days. What do you guys expect? Santa sliding down the chimney? Every model posted here on nearly every run has shown mostly rain (or worse) for the coast, a mix just N and W (or worse) and all snow well inland. Nobody wants to see it...but as an observer it has been plain as day for 48 hours. Things change...but this thread also talks about the fundamentals not being lined up to make that change happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, jfklganyc said: I’ve been reading through 20 pages of posts for the last several days. What do you guys expect? Santa sliding down the chimney? Every model posted here on nearly every run has shown mostly rain (or worse) for the coast, a mix just N and W (or worse) and all snow well inland. Nobody wants to see it...but as an observer it has been plain as day for 48 hours. Things change...but this thread also talks about the fundamentals not being lined up to make that change happen. Things changed for the better at 0z and we are also talking about less interaction between the polar vortex and the storm. Can it trend colder ? Sure Can it trend warmer ? Sure 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I was reading that even if it falls as freezing rain, the rain is coming down too hard for the ground to freeze up too quickly at 30 degrees, whereas more damage would occur if the rain was drizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The ridge is too strong ahead of the storm to get a mostly snow event down to the coast with such strong WAA above 900 mb. So a SE trend would push the ice further to the SE. Hopefully, the Euro doesn’t go back to the more southerly heavy ice accumulation maps it was running with last weekend. The models might be underdoing the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The models might be underdoing the cold air. At the surface yes. But aloft we have to deal with that raging SW LLJ above 900 mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Dumb question, but how much snow, if any, are we looking on the back end of this? That's one thing I don't like about 6 hour gaps between frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: Dumb question, but how much snow, if any, are we looking on the back end of this? That's one thing I don't like about 6 hour gaps between frames Whatever falls on the back end may just turn into a flash freeze with the mixed p-types transitioning back to snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: At the surface yes. But aloft we have to deal with that raging SW LLJ above 900 mb. Yes but that can also change depending on the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Yes but that can also change depending on the track. The surface low can still track to our south while the LLJ advances to the north of the storm track. That’s what all the models have been showing for days now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The NAM looks to be catching on.... sadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Was really hoping to see the NAM bring us the goods at 12z, but from the looks of it, not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Am I missing something? It’s a weak low that looks like it’s about to get squashed south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 49 minutes ago, TriPol said: I was reading that even if it falls as freezing rain, the rain is coming down too hard for the ground to freeze up too quickly at 30 degrees, whereas more damage would occur if the rain was drizzle. Some areas could experience freezing rain with temps in the low to mid 20's, which would have no problem accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Almost looks like it wants to pop a coastal off NC coast at hr 84 but hard to tell.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 53 minutes ago, TriPol said: I was reading that even if it falls as freezing rain, the rain is coming down too hard for the ground to freeze up too quickly at 30 degrees, whereas more damage would occur if the rain was drizzle. The ground is already frozen 2" down up here. Any liquid precip will freeze instantly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Almost looks like it wants to pop a coastal off NC coast at hr 84 but hard to tell.. I'm wonder if this can happened with the heights suppressing the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 NAM looks excellent 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Almost looks like it wants to pop a coastal off NC coast at hr 84 but hard to tell.. The counter clockwise flow off Hatteras in intriguing and would be a game changer. However, its the 84 hour NAM and I dont see enough support right now to see the HP squash the initial low enough to force the coastal redevelopment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: NAM looks excellent Based on what? It's excellent if you live in Albany... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Stop trying to extrapolate the 84hr NAM. It's not even worth the paper it's printed on until Friday morning. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Not going to get much invested in individual model runs until Thursday or Friday when sampling is better. For now, I look at possible trends across runs, that is it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, David-LI said: Based on what? It's excellent if you live in Albany... It's definitely excellent. The tpv is suppressing the heights ahead of the storm and forcing a secondary low to develop offshore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I’ve been reading through 20 pages of posts for the last several days. What do you guys expect? Santa sliding down the chimney? Every model posted here on nearly every run has shown mostly rain (or worse) for the coast, a mix just N and W (or worse) and all snow well inland. Nobody wants to see it...but as an observer it has been plain as day for 48 hours. Things change...but this thread also talks about the fundamentals not being lined up to make that change happen.But the fundamentals would support colder currently. Are the midlevels worrisome? As depicted, yes. However - and I said this yesterday- this comes down to a baroclynic gradient. The LP slamming into such a strong HP and phasing with the PV does not make all that much synoptic sense. Therefore, without the phase , this storm will ride the baroclynic gradient. This is not an LP phasing and bombing out, nothing in the n/s would show that. Therefore this is a couple of perturbations running along a stationary front essentially. In turn it allows for a considerable overrunning event. With this in mind, the perturbation (LP) is going to take the path of least resistance. This would translate to the strongest baroclinic gradient - likely SE. This HP is rather strong and it is going to shift the gradient SE as the weekend progresses, just look at how the models have trended much flatter and further S with the initial wave. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, David-LI said: Based on what? It's excellent if you live in Albany... Umm it looks good for everyone 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now