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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay
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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

very rare if that occurs....

Not rare in this set up.  Look at how the isobars are elongated along the front, and how the storm never really rapidly intensifies (at least until it is up in the maritimes).  This isn't really a Miller B or an apps runner, it's a weird setup that is more like a wave with an arctic front passage.

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

without snow cover here that severe cold will not be as severe and will not look or feel that bad....

the lack of snow would only be 100 miles inland from the coast-the storm unloads well inland-not sure the air would get all that modified moving over 100 miles of bare ground

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

the lack of snow would only be 100 miles inland from the coast-the storm unloads well inland-not sure the air would get all that modified moving over 100 miles of bare ground

at night you won't get the same type of cooling so temps will be warmer without snow cover - also I was talking mainly  about the look and feel of it with bare ground as opposed to snow cover

 

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So many variables on the table still to make any definitive statements in either direction. If the mid-level cyclones track overhead like what the GFS shows, we could very well see a very brief period of precip followed by dry slot and then whatever light stuff falls on the backside. Someone is going to get screwed unless the track is offshore. 

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