NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12Z ICON surface temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12Z GFS is considerably slower with the low moving through the Ohio Valley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 26 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: 12z ICON shifted the rain/snow line farther north. From 00z run. But definitely more favorable setup from its 6z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Keep in mind that the ICON does not show mixed precipitation. For example at hour 126, NYC is sitting in the lower to mid 20's at the surface. That’s a quick heavy thump followed by a dangerous icing depiction..... ouch!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS shifted the track of the primary low further NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 close yet no cigar for the city and urban suburb and coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Plain rain all the way to Albany this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: close yet no cigar for the city and urban suburb and coast Surprised it's that much. Temps are above freezing by 06z Sunday, even well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 No redevelopment this run. If you track the primary, it runs from Western PA, to Albany to the Gulf of Maine in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: close yet no cigar for the city and urban suburb and coast Cut those by at least 50% anywhere east of the LP track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 While the GFS thermal profiles have a known warm bias, it's going to flip all areas to plain rain if the surface low takes a track into upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 With no blocking, what is going to force the primary to redevelop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: While the GFS thermal profiles have a known warm bias, it's going to flip all areas to plain rain if the surface low takes a track into upstate NY. a positive EPO and NAO and MJO in a warm phase will tend to do that...…….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: With no blocking, what is going to force the primary to redevelop? Nothing. There's no redevelopment-need the high to press to get this further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Surprised it's that much. Temps are above freezing by 06z Sunday, even well inland. More realistic here with thermal profile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Warm sector'd big time. And it pulled back on the anafrontal business (color me shocked) to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: No redevelopment this run. If you track the primary, it runs from Western PA, to Albany to the Gulf of Maine in 12 hours. odd track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: More realistic here with thermal profile And this includes Friday btw. So basically nothing from the weekend washout accumulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: odd track.... everything so far about this season since November has been odd...….expect it continue like that for the duration 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: everything so far about this season since November has been odd...….expect it to be like that for the duration yup-the sensible weather regardless of the pattern is rain/warm and cold/dry this year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: And this includes Friday btw. So basically nothing from the weekend washout accumulates. good point-that map includes the Thurs event so 1-2 inches then heavy rain for the city/coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The key to forcing the redevelopment would be stronger influence from the high pressure to the North. Again, the GFS doesn't have a ton of skill when it comes to CAD setups. The Euro though isn't much different so the GFS has more weight. The strong CAD would at least prevent the surface from torching and we would hold onto snow for a few more hours. It's a little hard to see on this graphic but the ICON shows the CAD signature. The signature is with the sagging of the isobars to the Southwest over NY, PA, NJ and New England. Think of that as the cold air essentially pressing down from the high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I am still at odds with the GFS it’s a depiction track and thermal profiles wise.... we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: good point-that map includes the Thurs event so 1-2 inches then heavy rain for the city/coast only question now is will there be frozen at the end of this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: only question now is will there be frozen at the end of this ? Even if we get a rapid freeze on the backside I don't see much leftover precip. Most models have things over now by 18z Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Forget about the 12z Canadian, it has us starting as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: only question now is will there be frozen at the end of this ? very rare if that occurs.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I am still at odds with the GFS it’s a depiction track and thermal profiles wise.... we’ll see. Its prediction may be wrong, but this isn't one of those cases where the surface low track is clearly not in harmony with the model's own synoptic depiction. The trough axis is well west... you can see how cyclogensis is rooted to the divergent jet streak region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: very rare if that occurs.... only reason I mentioned that is Walt Drag did and is considering it ………. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: only reason I mentioned that is Walt Drag did and is considering it ………. this could be one of those times given the severe cold behind it-it's not run of the mill cold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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