HVSnowLover Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Colder at the surface this run than 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: @Brasiluvsnow With soundings you can see it even better but let's start with this. From the 18z gfs. The first temp map shows a cold surface. The second one shows a warm layer in the mid levels. Sleet or freezing rain with fall depending on how "thick" the layer of cold air is below the warm layer. Rjay --> Thanks Now I see it and get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Low North of Pittsburgh this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 In the 850 mb pic ( the second one ) does the red 6 in the middle of Long Island mean that it will be 6 degrees above 32 up there in the midlevel or am I off base with that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: In the 850 mb pic ( the second one ) does the red 6 in the middle of Long Island mean that it will be 6 degrees above 32 up there in the midlevel or am I off base with that ? Above 0°C 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: In the 850 mb pic ( the second one ) does the red 6 in the middle of Long Island mean that it will be 6 degrees above 32 up there in the midlevel or am I off base with that ? 6 degrees celsius so about 43 Fahrenheit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 That's right, the secret long-range RGEM is back and I'm still better than everyone because I know how to find it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: In the 850 mb pic ( the second one ) does the red 6 in the middle of Long Island mean that it will be 6 degrees above 32 up there in the midlevel or am I off base with that ? 6C (above 0C), or about 43 fahrenheit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS still showing secondary development 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Above 0°C Thanks Eric North Shore and Storm lover ,,I got it now appreciated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS still showing secondary development Snow to rain back to snow Cmc came further southeast along with the ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Always nice to see when a bunch of people are answering questions. Great job guys. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 That run is quite cold behind the storm, though. Nothing we haven't seen before, but very formidable -25C 850s pushing into the area by Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Snow to rain back to snow Cmc came further southeast along with the ukie Deets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Always nice to see when a bunch of people are answering questions. Great job guys. Rjay I appreciate the answers from you and the others and I know that there are others viewing this thread not asking questions but they appreciate it also 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Juliancolton said: That run is quite cold behind the storm, though. Nothing we haven't seen before, but very formidable -25C 850s pushing into the upper HV by Monday night. Icebox everywhere. Way colder than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Deets? Not clear since I just saw the Atari map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 That cold is something else, but probably overdone. At this point you'd want the first wave to be amped up so that a secondary can deliver some snows. Some flash freeze potential for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Per NE forum. 00Z Ukie came east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Good news, let's see if the Euro follows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Best case scenario would be if this unfolded like the March 2014 storms where the snow swath shifted some 4-500 miles south only 2/3 days before the storm hit. If you don't remember, our area was supposed to see major snows that month but instead the PV press caused the low and precip to shift south all the way into Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 42 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Per NE forum. 00Z Ukie came east. Best run of the night so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 This thermal gradient is gonna be cool to watch set up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GEFS look really good too. Lots of members with big hits down to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: GEFS look really good too. Lots of members with big hits down to the coast. LOL. My 3.1" seasonal total (thanks entirely to the November snow-to-rain event) would essentially remain unchanged if any of those verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Eduardo said: LOL. My 3.1" seasonal total (thanks entirely to the November snow-to-rain event) would essentially remain unchanged if any of those verified. Ignore the LI/NYC outputs, the GEFS resolution thinks we're the ocean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Dr no. Temps crash after these 2 frames but really ugly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Dr noEuro is ugly. Looks like a fropaSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 EPS doesn’t seem overly different from the Op looking at 500 heights. It might be slightly further SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I'd start worrying if I was in Montreal. UK was the best run on any guidance in over a day and then the Euro is a 60° disaster. 6z GFS and ICON are also NW. The writing is just about on the wall IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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