Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Making a run at 60° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Would get a legit flash freeze per fv3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Am I the only one who thinks the FV3 might actually be worse than the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 FV3 beat the regular GFS November 15th snowstorm but ever since it’s been horrible not saying it’s depiction is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Am I the only one who thinks the FV3 might actually be worse than the GFS? It's awful, especially in mid-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: It's awful, especially in mid-range. When the old GFS gets taken offline soon we're honestly going to be down to 2 semi-reliable models (Euro and UKMET). GEPS seem better but IDK if they're any better than the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Gravity Wave said: When the old GFS gets taken offline soon we're honestly going to be down to 2 semi-reliable models (Euro and UKMET). GEPS seem better but IDK if they're any better than the GEFS. That is very true and sad. I don't trust GFS or FV3 beyond 72 hours. Do you know when GFS is going to be taken offline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 17 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Making a run at 60° Can we make the rest of this horrendous winter 60° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: That is very true and sad. I don't trust GFS or FV3 beyond 72 hours. Do you know when GFS is going to be taken offline? Not exactly, but a week or so ago i think I remember reading that it would be within a few weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 18 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: That is very true and sad. I don't trust GFS or FV3 beyond 72 hours. Do you know when GFS is going to be taken offline? GFS is being taken offline? Care to elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: GFS is being taken offline? Care to elaborate? It’s suppoaed to be replaced by the FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Jeez. EURO is super amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Jeez. EURO is super amped another snow to ice to rain back to snow scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 It all depends on where the arctic boundary (front) sets up and at what time SLP forms along it. It will track right along it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Euro honestly wasn't that far off. The key players for this system won't be onshore until Thursday so there's plenty of time for a positive trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 hours ago, Drz1111 said: GFS is bordering on an overrunning event followed by basically a strong FROPA and then anafrontal precip falling into strong CAA. ICE. this is what it looked like to me for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 850s torch but surface looks quite icy. Freezing rain won't do it for me but sleet sure as hell would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The SLP track is just slightly north of due east from 120 to 168, and stays south of NYC. That should keep this mostly frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 This screams ice to me. Ordinarily this would cut straight through but the PV will crush the system as it tries to amplify. It'll probably redevelop offshore. Under this scenario you could see strong mid-level warming and surface temps in the 20s. Dangerous set-up if realized, I'd rather see the Canadian if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, RDRY said: The SLP track is just slightly north of due east from 120 to 168, and stays south of NYC. That should keep this mostly frozen. Not with that tropical air screaming up torching the mid levels. Surface could very well stay freezing in that setup, but not aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 any got maps for surface temp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, RDRY said: The SLP track is just slightly north of due east from 120 to 168, and stays south of NYC. That should keep this mostly frozen. The mid levels are torching. It’s not staying frozen precip falling with that setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, David-LI said: any got maps for surface temp? No. But NYC sees over an inch of freezing rain. Widespread 1"-2.5" ice from NYC-BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Not with that tropical air screaming up torching the mid levels. Surface could very well stay freezing in that setup, but not aloft. I'm considering freezing rain frozen precip, but yeah. No way this stays snow for the coast per the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, David-LI said: any got maps for surface temp? 2m temps top out in the 50s for all of NYC/LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, David-LI said: any got maps for surface temp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The euro is showing what the gfs did two days ago. Either way very dangerous situation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 2m temps top out in the 50s for all of NYC/LI. If that PV stays in place, surface temps won't get out of the 20s. Models warm up surface temps way too quickly in these setups. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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