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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay
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I just heard 2 transformers pop a few seconds apart.  The power went out for a few seconds but then came back on. The next block over is dark. 

I fell asleep but have been looking out every few hours, I got about 4" before it flipped to sleet and now it has been raining since about 3am. It's still 30* and the ice is building quickly :(

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So for the still working mets on this board... there continues to be need for improved modeling of boundary layers (BL) temps, especially the lowest portion of the BL... ALL model failure on this CAD drainage that is a constant, when, a reservoir of colder air exists near I90 (MA-NYS), available for reinforcement. We're lucky here in northern Sussex County that we had mostly sleet (11P-430A).  We'll know more at sunrise, and then if it doesn't warm above 32, a second chance for power outages with 35-45 Mph gusts knocking down ice covered branches tonight.  Unknowns to prepare for.  One known I think is the risk not only elevated risk for heart attacks removing our solid 4.5" of snow sleet (it was broomable last evening prior to sleet (24f at that time). but also shoulder injuries since the weight of snow -sleet-freezing rain can take a toll.  

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27 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I just heard 2 transformers pop a few seconds apart.  The power went out for a few seconds but then came back on. The next block over is dark. 

I fell asleep but have been looking out every few hours, I got about 4" before it flipped to sleet and now it has been raining since about 3am. It's still 30* and the ice is building quickly :(

Our block went out for about 4 hours or so, huge transformer explosion that lit up the sky.  Thank God they ended up getting it back on quickly.

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6 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Trees are starting to snap now, it sounds like a battle zone out there. I'm not looking forward to tonight and tomorrow. The thought of no heat and running water (again) sucks.

ugh, I hope you stay safe!  look on the positive side, at least you wont be shoveling!

 

oh, and gravity sucks :(

do you have a generator?

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10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah it’s keeping the city from torching so far. Because you know, 35 degree rain is way cooler then 45.

Yeah those 45-55F progs were exaggerated. Too bad, I was hoping to go from 50s into singles within 24 hrs. 

38F right now, HRRR suggests low 40s still possible but it's been trending cooler last few runs.

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While I am ready to fall on the sword here for the freezing rain that did in fact make it up through Orange County a few hours ago with this insane southerly jet banging into an entrenched Arctic dome, as I stated yesterday the storm itself would not come into NNJ/NYC/LI and up into SW CT as modeled. Judging by wind direction obs. The closest low is passing from around Philly and going out into the water around LBI. Winds on LI have turned NE so it's going below them out to CC as I thought. This storm too will pass and I still haven't seen a low cut up into an entrenched Arctic dome in the HV when there was an exit off the coast of SNJ available. 

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13 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

37 with heavy rain.  Upton’s still got me getting to 48, but with wind direction now NE we may be at the high already 

....thats what i was thinking..i'm @ 37.6* and steady..no real climb in temp..a lot of rolling thunder out 

here...

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4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Whenever it snows heavily in Montreal and we’re expectibg snow to stay snow is not a good look. Obviously the guys that were calling for an easy bust here had it right for us weenies it was written on the wall. We’ll see what happens for the rest of the winter though.

Yes very true. Not sure how common it would be for both cities to receive heavy snow (no mixing for NYC) from the same system but I imagine its quite rare.

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